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Potential January 18th Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:25 am

The Friday storm has trended north on the models. Lets see where latest guidance today takes us. I will be working until 730pm. So hopefully someone can keep the thread going for model updates. Here is the 12z NAM

Potential January 18th Storm  25992_468172566553494_1543087529_n
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:58 am

This looks great!! With decent ratios Im getting excited. Hope this hold serve.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_045_10m_wnd_precip.gif
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2013 2:36 pm

Scott, do u think we have a good shot at this? It's been hard for me to track with all my midterms starting this Friday into next week.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 16, 2013 2:41 pm

I do Alex but being burned in the past I want to see how the rest of today and tonight does on the models. I def think a few inches is not out of the question for LI esp eastern. A jog of 50 miles west or east could have big implications. But again I am staying cautiously optimistic right now and am not making any final calls yet.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:39 pm

I'm out on this one, enjoy the snow you guys out east. In the CNJ screw zone again, too south for the past few and too west for this one lol.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:48 pm

Scott, Joe B posted a map that was a blend among models and had about 4in for us.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:54 pm

You better believe Ill take that..lol
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:57 pm

Yupp. Also accuweather has 1-2in for me tmw night.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2013 5:41 pm

Wow GFS is gonna be north and west for sure this run!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_030_1000_850_thick.gif
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Chat board 9pm for NAM model!!!! Everyone be there!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:19 pm

NAM is south. Only extreme southern NJ sees some snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:33 pm

Snow Map

Potential January 18th Storm  Snow_m10
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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:52 pm

Frank, do I see 2-4 pink right on the extreme jersey coast or am I just seeing things
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:02 pm

Quietace wrote:Frank, do I see 2-4 pink right on the extreme jersey coast or am I just seeing things

It actually does look like it, but that is not meant to be there. C-2 inches
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:02 pm

0z GFS is gonna be NW. Neutral to -NAO will help carry it north and if you look at the current radar its NW already than previously thought. IMO, NAM is wrong with this storm just like last night with coastal areas.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:04 pm

I think NAM is right and GFS is on crack, as it was with yesterdays storm too. GFS in the short range is just terrible lately.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:05 pm

Well for coastal areas, the GFS was better showing more of a wet solution instead of the 2-3in the NAM was putting out for NYC and LI
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:09 pm

Found this on Mid Atlantic Weather Forecasting's page:

Have said this also Wxrisk.com
WEATHER GEEK COMMENT -- ABOUT THE RPM MODEL.

as SOME of you have seen ... or read ... there is talk that the the RPM SUDDENLY has No snow in central VA.

lets get right to it. the RPM Model is a pile of crap. The Model Biass and flaws are so bad that the compnay that DEVELOPED it has refused to release the data.

The current RPM is run off the 18z NAM ...which as I talekd about earlier ...was weaker with the Low and has somewhat less snow over central VA. Therefore it follows that of course the useless RPM is going to reflect this .

Back in MID DEC the RPM forecasted 10" of snow for Chicago --they got less than 1. Ask Tom skilling from WGN. He says w he will never use it again

the RPM is private model founded by a private wx company and this company in New England (WSI) pushes it on their TV clients. MEANWHiLE the 18Z gfs which gives richmond 9" of snow gets ignored..
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:40 pm

GFS is south. Precip doesnt make it up to NYC at all. SNJ on south. Im throwing in the towel for NYC on north
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:40 pm

Lol. Told you.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:43 pm

You were right. Damn false hope from the NAO
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 17, 2013 8:43 am

So after a few days of a north and west trend for tonight into tomorrows storm potential yesterdays 18z and 0z runs have shifted it back to the south and east leaving the NYC metro area for the most part high and dry. The 0z Euro as well as a few other short range models do still bring a little moisture into NYC, south NJ, LI and southern CT, but it does not amount to much as far as accumulations. I would not be surprised if LI esp areas out in Suffolk County and esp the south fork could wake up to see some flurries and possibly a light dusting, but nothing that warrants a snow map. Frustrating for this snow lover to say the least. Have a great day. Smile
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:57 am

12z nam and short range models are north again
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 17, 2013 12:11 pm

By a smidge
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Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 17, 2013 1:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:So after a few days of a north and west trend for tonight into tomorrows storm potential yesterdays 18z and 0z runs have shifted it back to the south and east leaving the NYC metro area for the most part high and dry. The 0z Euro as well as a few other short range models do still bring a little moisture into NYC, south NJ, LI and southern CT, but it does not amount to much as far as accumulations. I would not be surprised if LI esp areas out in Suffolk County and esp the south fork could wake up to see some flurries and possibly a light dusting, but nothing that warrants a snow map. Frustrating for this snow lover to say the least. Have a great day. Smile

I think you are right on the nose with this one.At this stage of the game, it's pretty set that this one is going south and east of us.What do they call these things, "southern sliders"?

Back to the drawing board,LOL!
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