January 2014 Observations & Discussions

Looks like January will continue on the active pattern...

16* wind chill just went down to -2....

This is crazy if it serves from the GGEM - very amped up system for the Jan 10th event!! Blizzard?? Sharp/Rain Snow line though but cold air will be their for most of us.

NAM showing a light snow maybe an inch after some ice Monday?? God I hope not cause the .5 rain the models are showing will flash freeze and like I said in the long range we could have a 1993-94 MLK (those who remember - Me, Doc, Roc, CP, Zoo anyone else ???) was a disaster - the set up is similar with a very strong arctic front dropping down really hard into a western coastal system (call it this??) an dthen changes the rain the ice to snow - locked us up for days but I know that was more amped on storm side and the cold air hit as the storm was still kickin' giving us 1-2" of ice and only about 2" of snow. Input anyone?

Hope no ice...going out for my birthday! But it is going to be a mess....

Really have to watch this carefully. If it rains Monday and temps plummet, it could result in bad icing.

amugs wrote:NAM showing a light snow maybe an inch after some ice Monday?? God I hope not cause the .5  rain the models are showing will flash freeze and like I said in the long range we could have a 1993-94 MLK (those who remember - Me, Doc, Roc, CP, Zoo anyone else ???) was a disaster - the set up is similar with a very strong arctic front dropping down really hard into a western coastal system (call it this??) an dthen changes the rain the ice to snow - locked us up for days but I know that was more amped on storm side and the cold air hit as the storm was still kickin' giving us 1-2" of ice and only about 2" of snow. Input anyone?

Remember it well,Mugsy.Heavy rain like in a thunderstorm, with the temp at 21 degrees.1 inch of ice and temps below 10 degrees for a week.Never saw anything like it before or since.

I share your concern with Monday.Hope the moisture can evaporate or dissipate before he extreme cold heads in.

GuYs,

The GFS and NAM have this flash freeze for us in the N & W burbs with 1-2" of snow after ice - this is going to be a great concern as we move forward - need to really watch this cause this can be worse than the storm we just had!!   

Mugs

what did it show for me?

Looks to be a 40* drop in temps Monday, but over what time period will be the question...

Was reading franks post is jan 10 another snowstorm or just a small disturbance

Artechmetals wrote:Was reading franks post is jan 10 another snowstorm or just a small disturbance

Prob smaller disturbance

Freezing Rain advisories out for Western Areas. NWS citing up to .10 inch of accumulation possible Sunday Morning.

The NAM seems to show some wet snow to end the system, IDK if this is a real threat or not because backend stuff tends to not work out more often then it does.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html

Quietace wrote:Freezing Rain advisories out for Western Areas. NWS citing up to .10 inch of accumulation possible Sunday Morning.

Weird how Upton hasn't issued anything.

I am a bit confused, so there is a ice threat tomorrow morning and Monday? What exactly is a flash freeze? Like all that water everywhere will immediately turn to ice making roads a veritible ice rink?

Getting some light sleet and freezing drizzle 26*

On cue they just issued a freezing rain advisory for NYC, NE NJ and Nassau county

The cold air is stubborn just outside of nyc & immediate suburbs. Still single digits and teens out there.

jmanley32 wrote:I am a bit confused, so there is a ice threat tomorrow morning and Monday? What exactly is a flash freeze?  Like all that water everywhere will immediately turn to ice making roads a veritible ice rink?

exactly!

Dtone wrote:The cold air is stubborn just outside of nyc & immediate suburbs. Still single digits and teens out there.

15* here but no precip yet....

Dtone wrote:The cold air is stubborn just outside of nyc & immediate suburbs. Still single digits and teens out there.

7 here, the low was 2.7

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 803 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...A GLAZING OF ICE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN... NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072>075-176>179-051800- /O.EXT.KOKX.ZR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140105T1800Z/ HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 803 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF URBAN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NASSAU COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...A GLAZE OF ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS... ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$

hmmmm, looks like it is staying south enough from me...maybe my temps will have time to rise before it gets here...btw...JFK closed due to ice and small plane off runway...Philly airport closed too