January 22nd Storm Discussion/Observatiom

Models have brought back light snow on this day. Lets see if it trends stronger. These short waves can be funny sometimes. Could be a 1-3 inch deal.

Right now looks like a 1" event on the NAM at least the GFS is less.

My Blog is up on Wild About Weather for the potential storm Monday Night-Tuesday!
http://www.wildaboutweather.com/alex-iannone.html

HPC Increased their percentages from earlier today!!!
Prob of 1"
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013012000f072.gif

Prob of 2"
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge02_2013012000f072.gif

Prob of 4"
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge04_2013012000f072.gif

Prob of 6"
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge06_2013012000f072.gif

From NWS Taunton about Monday Night- Tuesday

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS
PARTICULAR TIMEFRAME AS COLD ARCTIC AIR AND COASTAL STORM WILL BE
OCCURRING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOP A COASTAL STORM OFF OF THE SE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIP...APPEARS THAT COASTAL STORM WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED
TROUGH LIKE SET-UP. THEREFORE BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY AMONGST
THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES. BECAUSE OF THE ARCTIC
CHILL...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. AGAIN STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES AMONGST EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY BUT FOR NOW
BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THE SE COASTAL REGIONS NEARING 3 TO 5 INCHES.

15z SREF says LI Special!!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013011909/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f072.gif

Great blog Alex.

SREF's are interesting. Lets see if they can get some support.

Thanks Frank, and take a look at this and also read the updated NWS Upton discussion if u want to put a smile on your face!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Hello 0z nam. How i love u. Nam shows a nice swatch of snow for nyc, LI. Looks cold too. Cant post images from my phone. Hopefully someome else can.

0z Nam and SREF are about 6-7in for LI

The nam was useless until last weeks storm...hopefully its on to something.

GFS is a low resolution model so don't expect it to do well with this system. NAM is very nice. Tomorrows model runs will be very interesting.

EURO has nothing for this event. LOL

SREF still has the .25 contour line just west of NYC. The Cape gets .50 of precip.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p24&cycle=09&image=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_054_precip_p24.gif

SREF is garbage IMO, those snow maps are as bullish as they can get, remember what they were showing for previous storms and this very last one that no-one got any precip from?

Right, but we only need a small amount of precip from the strengthening low on LI to get 3-4" bc of high ratios

If a norlun sets up it will be in NE. I don't see more than a few snow showers for the majority of us as of now.

I don't think NYC or LI will see the norlun, IMO 1-2" for you guys, C-1" for me, slight coastal enhancement for eastern half of LI but storm will strengthen too late to bring in more moisture except for NE and the Massachusetts area may be the jackpot.

UPDATED: Amounts went up and i expect them to increase it again after 0z
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

I don't think those will go up, most of the models are very dry, they're placing too much money on the NAM IMO it hasn't been very good lately.

I agree with Tom on this one. It honestly depends where the norlun sets up. And that is hard to determine before hand. Nowcast type storm