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*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:15 am

We are looking at atleast a light snow accumulation for the area. But could it be moderate like the GFS and other short-range models suggest? Or will the EURO hold serve? I take a look at what the differences are in the upper levels between both models. Snow map to be released at 11am

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/01/examining-january-21st-snowstorm.html


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Noreaster Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:36 am

Excellent stuff Frank
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:24 am

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! SN_000-048_00006Z RGEM!! Ace you get 10+ " and LI get sanotehr 12"+!! WOW!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:03 am

Umm ya, I was up just a few hrs ago and upton said nothing. Now theres a winter storm watch for 4-8 locally higher?! Of course it has to come when I am really ill, baby and mama, and we all have to go out tomorrow.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:06 am

Well after remaining on the sidelines for most of this one I am going to jump right in with a snow map.  Pretty much every model has been trending NOICE and juicy with the exception of the Euro which has the most conservative precip amts and is furthest S and E with the system.  Given the trends I went with a blend of the NAM/GFS/CMC/RGEM using about a 15:1 ratio; however,  still keeping the Euro in the back of my mind meaning my totals may bust on the low side.  Here are the Total QPF maps followed by my snow map. 
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Ecmwf_10" />
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Cmc_to10" />
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Gfs_to10" />
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Nam_to10" />
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Rgem_t10" />
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Snowfa10" />

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:31 am

Nice map Doc.
Here is my take.
The RGEM this winter has been fantastic. The Fact the the GFS and GEM give it support gives me reassurance it has close to the correct idea. The NAM improved at 6z to get the .5 QPF into the area.
I liked the 6z suite this morning. With the heaviest QPF confined to coastal areas with lighter mounts inland. This seems to be the correct orientation with the low intensifying off shore leaving the heaviest banding their also. I believe 6-8 is a good bet for coastal areas with LI having the chance for higher amounts. Delaware/JS look to do well with the system also. WInds are also impressive and i wonder if LI will get a blizzard watch sometime today.
I am a 6z NAM/RGEM blend with this one. The 2z suite is big as the vort is now in the CONUS....
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! 1-20-110
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:37 am

I agree with your map Ace regarding SNJ and the DelMarVa. That the one area I did not pay much detail to but think I should nudge totals up a smidge in those areas.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:39 am

Hey Ace looks like this winter is all about the coast right where we are at lol
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:39 am

sroc4 wrote:I agree with your map Ace regarding SNJ and the DelMarVa. That the one area I did not pay much detail to but think I should nudge totals up a smidge in those areas.
I think they will get a minimum .5 QPF from this. Even with the Euros .4, with good ratios its still a half a foot storm. Upton is pretty bullish for LI i see.


Last edited by Quietace on Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:41 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Hey Ace looks like this winter is all about the coast right where we are at lol
Yeah man, looks decent for us again.
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Post by Artechmetals Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:41 am

Guys any chance this trends more west
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:07 am

Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I agree with your map Ace regarding SNJ and the DelMarVa. That the one area I did not pay much detail to but think I should nudge totals up a smidge in those areas.
I think they will get a minimum .5 QPF from this. Even with the Euros .4, with good ratios its still a half a foot storm. Upton is pretty bullish for LI i see.
Yeah Ill say.  Agrees with my map for the most part.  *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! StormTotalSnowFcst

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:11 am

Wonder if Upton will go Blizzard watch after the 12z suite. Light fluffy snow will allow winds to blow visibilities down easily similar to the January 2-3rd storm.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:14 am

ABC's going with 1-3 90% of the entire area,3-6 jersey shore to L.I swath
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Post by Artechmetals Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:23 am

Aren't they saying 4. To 8
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:34 am

Quietace wrote:Nice map Doc.
Here is my take.
The RGEM this winter has been fantastic. The Fact the the GFS and GEM give it support gives me reassurance it has close to the correct idea. The NAM improved at 6z to get the .5 QPF into the area.
I liked the 6z suite this morning. With the heaviest QPF confined to coastal areas with lighter mounts inland. This seems to be the correct orientation with the low intensifying off shore leaving the heaviest banding their also. I believe 6-8 is a good bet for coastal areas with LI having the chance for higher amounts. Delaware/JS look to do well with the system also. WInds are also impressive and i wonder if LI will get a blizzard watch sometime today.  
I am a 6z NAM/RGEM blend with this one. The 2z suite is big as the vort is now in the CONUS....
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! 1-20-110

Ace - you are in my camp kid - welcome aboard the R-G-E-M train!!! Sounds like REM a great rock/pop band from the late 1980's and early 1990's here we go and I said to Math last night this - the B word!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:39 am

I wish that 3-6in line would push a little farther North and West so I could get into the decent snowfall amounts. Neutral
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:57 am

Snow that is going to be tough but there is a possibility - hell anything is possible with these storms - two days ago we were expecting nada!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:06 am

Hour 33 NAM

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Nam-mslp-qpf6-us_hr33

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:07 am

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Nam-mslp-qpf6-ne_hr33

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:08 am

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Nam-mslp-qpf6-ne_hr36

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:09 am

looks good!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:10 am

NWS says 20:1 ratios 

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! 558271_764484096914241_375346105_n

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:13 am

Ryan and doc...great snow maps. I like Ryan's since he takes into account SNJ more

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:14 am

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! Nam-mslp-qpf6-ne_hr39

WOW

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