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*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!

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nofoboater
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Post by Noreaster Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:32 pm

Lol TWC stick with 2-4 for NYC.   Idk what model shows that but their future cast is absurd.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:36 pm

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Post-26-0-08389200-1390246436
 
Check out the SREF!!! Holy Smokes - just got in from a field trip and wow has this bad boy exploded from the looks of these maps.

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:40 pm

amugs wrote:
snowday111 wrote:Do you think schools will have an issue on Tuesday if the heaviest snow isn't coming until night? I'm going to assume we will most likely have off Wednesday, but now I see it is starting Tuesday morning so I'm wondering if we will get in the full day on Tuesday. The teacher in me is trying to plan ahead and make the time we do have in school on Tuesday as productive as I can. Then I can enjoy the snow day!! Surprised

SnowDay where are you at? I teach at Northern Highlands in Allendale NJ - Bergen County - at worst Early dismissal with Wed off - remember that it will get frigid Tuesday night - lows around 0-5* so the snow there maybe serious icing issues come wed morning if not down to the pavement.

Mugs

The problem with predicting snow days with moderate snowfall is that every town is different with snow removal...how good is your town? What about buses? Sometimes the school would like to open but the bus company says no....too many variables....the bulk of the snow will be overnight and may be cleared in time for a delayed opening....good luck to you! and you too mugs!

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:41 pm

amugs wrote:*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Post-26-0-08389200-1390246436
 
Check out the SREF!!! Holy Smokes - just got in from a field trip and wow has this bad boy exploded from the looks of these maps.

Nice, if those qpf's verify I may even eke out 5 or 6 inches.
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:48 pm

Updated Accuweather Map
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 650x3611

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:54 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain  to me how come this clipper is so strong arent they usually weak. Is it just bc how cold its gonna be for that much snow to fall?
Hey Skins here is a little more detail to answer your question.  In a miller B set up you will have an alberta clipper system associated with the northern branch that phases (transfers its energy) with a LP system originating along the southern branch of the jet stream seen in black on this map.  A miller A setup is basically no s/w or clipper energy diving in on the northern stream, but rather the LP that originates down south taps into the GOM then the atlantic for moisture.  The northern branch and southern branch kind of meet along the coast so when the LP gets to that location along the coast it bombs out, but no energy transfer as in the Miller B set up.  This is indicated by the orange LP. 
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Wv-l_m10" />
This system however is strictly a northern stream storm.  Meaning the energy comes from the northern branch.  Unlike the typical track of a Clipper like system which looks like this.  In most cases the northern stream energy doesn't dig deep enough to tap into the GOM to strengthen.  It only can strengthen once it meets the atlantic off the NE coast somewhere.  With this type of track with no interaction with the southern stream there isn't a whole lot of time to deepen so clipper systems in general tend to be light to moderate at best in terms of precip. 
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Wv-l_c11" />
With this system; however, (similar to Jan 3rd), there is a very amped steep ridge in the west.  This allows the northern s/w energy to gain much more momentum and dig into the trough making it sharper at the base and bring the base of the trough much further south.  That makes the turn around the base of the trough much quicker; therefore more energy generated at it round the base.  The analogy Ill use it like driving in a car.  If you go around a nice gradual turn at 50MPH you will only generate a certain amt of G force on your body.  Now make that same turn a hair pin one and you might guess you might feel like you might fly out of your seat as you round the turn.  Same concept only when the energy rounds the turn with more momentum because it dug deeper into the trough it will spin off a much more potent LP which can tap into the GOM and has more time to bomb out using the Atlantic moisture too.  Since it dug the trough deeper than a classic clipper it has more time to deepen because it spends more time along the coast line with a path more N to S oriented.   
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Wv-l_a10" />
Hope I didn't confuse you.


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:57 pm

Nice work SROC
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Post by snowday111 Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:58 pm

amugs wrote:
snowday111 wrote:Do you think schools will have an issue on Tuesday if the heaviest snow isn't coming until night? I'm going to assume we will most likely have off Wednesday, but now I see it is starting Tuesday morning so I'm wondering if we will get in the full day on Tuesday. The teacher in me is trying to plan ahead and make the time we do have in school on Tuesday as productive as I can. Then I can enjoy the snow day!! Surprised

SnowDay where are you at? I teach at Northern Highlands in Allendale NJ - Bergen County - at worst Early dismissal with Wed off - remember that it will get frigid Tuesday night - lows around 0-5* so the snow there maybe serious icing issues come wed morning if not down to the pavement.

Mugs
Middlesex County NJ - I figure that Wed. will be no school but now I'm wondering about Tuesday AND I have a faculty meeting afterschool on Tuesday too. 😢

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:58 pm

Doc, do you think Upton will issue a Blizzard Warning for the island with their next update?

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:59 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Nice work SROC

Thanks.  Alex I have no idea.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:07 pm

Accuweather looks like my map. But they don't have the 4-8 area. Otherwise, a replica.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:16 pm

The NAM shifted a bit south east for 18z meanwhile the SREFs came north.

SREF
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

Anyone have the RGEM?
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:18 pm

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Usa_as11

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:18 pm

12z RGEM

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Rgem_tprecip_slp_nyc_17

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:19 pm

Very sharp cutoff on 18z nam

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:19 pm

Even with the SE shift of the nam I'm getting 8-12 still

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:21 pm

Yeah this run of the NAM shifts the jackpot into SNJ and the eastern half of LI. NYC, PHI, and CNJ are real close. Here are the SREF probabilities.

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 2qddie11
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:22 pm

My SREF mean is 15in lol

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:23 pm

The RGEM is still a really nice run, although a shift of like 25 miles NW would benefit everyone, it would bring the highest QPF off the ocean and over land in LI and NYC and central NJ and even Philly. It's REALLY close.


Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by colosa4 Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:24 pm

Upton bumped up there maps a bit.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:24 pm

NEW UPTON TOTALS!!
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Stormt10

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Post by Noreaster Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:25 pm

Upton likes my call

 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain  to me how come this clipper is so strong arent they usually weak. Is it just bc how cold its gonna be for that much snow to fall?
Hey Skins here is a little more detail to answer your question.  In a miller B set up you will have an alberta clipper system associated with the northern branch that phases (transfers its energy) with a LP system originating along the southern branch of the jet stream seen in black on this map.  A miller A setup is basically no s/w or clipper energy diving in on the northern stream, but rather the LP that originates down south taps into the GOM then the atlantic for moisture.  The northern branch and southern branch kind of meet along the coast so when the LP gets to that location along the coast it bombs out, but no energy transfer as in the Miller B set up.  This is indicated by the orange LP. 
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Wv-l_m10" />
This system however is strictly a northern stream storm.  Meaning the energy comes from the northern branch.  Unlike the typical track of a Clipper like system which looks like this.  In most cases the northern stream energy doesn't dig deep enough to tap into the GOM to strengthen.  It only can strengthen once it meets the atlantic off the NE coast somewhere.  With this type of track with no interaction with the southern stream there isn't a whole lot of time to deepen so clipper systems in general tend to be light to moderate at best in terms of precip. 
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Wv-l_c11" />
With this system; however, (similar to Jan 3rd), there is a very amped steep ridge in the west.  This allows the northern s/w energy to gain much more momentum and dig into the trough making it sharper at the base and bring the base of the trough much further south.  That makes the turn around the base of the trough much quicker; therefore more energy generated at it round the base.  The analogy Ill use it like driving in a car.  If you go around a nice gradual turn at 50MPH you will only generate a certain amt of G force on your body.  Now make that same turn a hair pin one and you might guess you might feel like you might fly out of your seat as you round the turn.  Same concept only when the energy rounds the turn with more momentum because it dug deeper into the trough it will spin off a much more potent LP which can tap into the GOM and has more time to bomb out using the Atlantic moisture too.  Since it dug the trough deeper than a classic clipper it has more time to deepen because it spends more time along the coast line with a path more N to S oriented.   
*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 <a href=*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 6 Wv-l_a10" />
Hope I didn't confuse you.
That was great write up and illustration thank you so much great work
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:28 pm

Better view of NAM.

http://models.weatherbell.com/nam/2014012018/ne/nam_total_precip_ne_14.png

.5" NYC CNJ (sharp cutoff as you go further NW)
.6" LI
.7"+ SNJ Jackpot
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:30 pm

Hey guys, does Upton have a new Snowfall map LOL! Don't everyone post at once!
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:32 pm

Upgraded to winter storm warning for most of NJ....except for far NW and NE NJ.....

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:32 pm

essexcountypete wrote:Hey guys, does Upton have a new Snowfall map LOL! Don't everyone post at once!

Pete look about four posts up - 6-8" for you.

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