*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
+22
nofoboater
sabamfa
Dunnzoo
SoulSingMG
docstox12
NjWeatherGuy
CPcantmeasuresnow
oldtimer
jimv45
deadrabbit79
algae888
aiannone
SNOW MAN
RJB8525
Artechmetals
skinsfan1177
Quietace
sroc4
jmanley32
amugs
Noreaster
Frank_Wx
26 posters
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Sort of a model consensus forming here.....
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
yupp snow map is very similar to the NAM
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Looking at the latest maps it looks like with the cold in place Hopewell jct in southern Dutchess might get 3-6 out of this!! is that right?
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Ryan Where is the surface low forming? I thought it was a fast moving clipper Will it bomb out?
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Looks like I miss most of the fun, but this will be very interesting too see how high NYC, Jersey coast and LI can go with this. If I get 4 -6 up here I'll be happy but still envious.
Hopefully my discussions with NWS this past week will help with zookeeper totals. I will post the e-mails on that when this storm is all over with.
Hopefully my discussions with NWS this past week will help with zookeeper totals. I will post the e-mails on that when this storm is all over with.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Not really anymore, we have more of a classic clipper diving down through the base of the arctic front, consolidating, and intensifying off the VA coast. Models have been trending toward a tucked in solution near BM with a deepening low near 990mb. Its increasingly likely this will be a large event.oldtimer wrote:Ryan Where is the surface low forming? I thought it was a fast moving clipper Will it bomb out?
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
The ratios are making the accumulations high, not the liquid content
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Yes, and no. Models have .5+. And if we have a tucked in low similar to the GFS, or RGEM, you would see closer to .7-.8 of liquid as the CCB would be more widespread in the area with increased banding potential off the ocean. But the ratios near 15-20:1 will certainly increase totals further than what we would normally see.oldtimer wrote:The ratios are making the accumulations high, not the liquid content
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Wow! That's great Ryan Thxs for your help
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Snow Map / Timing, January 21, 2014 Snowstorm
This snow map are my current thoughts for how this storm will unfold in terms of snowfall. I'm not sure if the NWS will issue blizzard watches or warnings for coastal areas, but blizzard-like conditions are possible for those area since the snow will be powdery and winds will easily blow it around due to the moderate winds. Especially once the storm deepens off the coast. There will be banding that sets up with this storm (CCB) and right now central and coastal NJ into Long Island seem to be the jackpot areas that could get into the CCB. NYC is very close, and they very well could get into it as well which would take them to the higher end of the 6-12 range.
Timing:
Start: 10am - 12pm
Heaviest snow: 10pm - 3am
End: 9am - 11am Wednesday morning (1/22)
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Well if starts around 10am, how do we get home? lol. Im thinking they cancel tomorrow and wednesday or at least we get a early dismissal.Mets2695 wrote:No school Wednesday lol
Love the map Frank. Really be interesting to see if the NWS pulls the trigger for the blizzard warnings.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Snow map has been posted. Chat tonight at 8:30
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
With ratios in the 20.1 plus here in Southern Dutchess I can see even higher then what your map says!!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
No, this map takes into consideration the 20:1 ratios
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
I think that may be wishful thinking on your part. I don't really see the Hudson Valley making all that well from the storm because our QPf will probably be very low. Even with higher ratios, I think will be very lucky and I'll be happy if we managed to get into the 4 to 6 range.jimv45 wrote:With ratios in the 20.1 plus here in Southern Dutchess I can see even higher then what your map says!!
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Cut-offs will be sharp. That is why I put the "+" sign in the dark blue to account for that. Just a slight shift in either direction and snow totals could drastically change for better or worse.
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Have a friend that works in the Albany weather station that got me into the weather seen and I think your map will be on the low end in the southern part of my county they are saying a 6 inch snow is becoming very likely now maybe more!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Light blue may have been able to be extended further north more, but we'll see what happens.
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
I should have waited until the 12z suites came in to post my map. I may have to increase my totals just a smidge. I mean...WOOHOOOO!!!!!
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
I said 1st call map....lolsroc4 wrote:I should have waited until the 12z suites came in to post my map. I may have to increase my totals just a smidge. I mean...WOOHOOOO!!!!!
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
I agree with this as of now.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
I did too..just not out loud. I am still sticking with my original map though for the time being.Quietace wrote:I said 1st call map....lolsroc4 wrote:I should have waited until the 12z suites came in to post my map. I may have to increase my totals just a smidge. I mean...WOOHOOOO!!!!!
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
Alex, looking at that ratio map, is that why the GFS has fairly similar totals for me as areas like LI where there will clearly be more precip. Does anyone know if that GFS snow map takes into account ratios? It will be colder by me. According to the 12z NAM, I get around .55" of liquid with temps approx 14 degrees during the heaviest precip.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Looks like I miss most of the fun, but this will be very interesting too see how high NYC, Jersey coast and LI can go with this. If I get 4 -6 up here I'll be happy but still envious.
Hopefully my discussions with NWS this past week will help with zookeeper totals. I will post the e-mails on that when this storm is all over with.
According to NWS, I'm only getting 2 to 4 so we are definitely on the northern or western edge of this storm.Maybe a jog west will bump us up.Better get uised to this, CP, i thinkl this is the snowstorm track for this year, east and south.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: *BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!
12z GFS identical to the NAM.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=PCPIN&level=24&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
IMO SFC temps are going to be huge here, this could be a 10"+ snowstorm easily with .5" QPF expected around CNJ, NYC and LI.
GFS SFC during heaviest precip.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=39¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
Trended colder due to stronger storm, 20 degree line looks to hug the coast.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=PCPIN&level=24&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
IMO SFC temps are going to be huge here, this could be a 10"+ snowstorm easily with .5" QPF expected around CNJ, NYC and LI.
GFS SFC during heaviest precip.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=39¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
Trended colder due to stronger storm, 20 degree line looks to hug the coast.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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