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*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm!

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nofoboater
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:43 am

Sort of a model consensus forming here.....

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:44 am

yupp snow map is very similar to the NAM

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Post by jimv45 Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:46 am

Looking at the latest maps it looks like with the cold in place Hopewell jct in southern Dutchess  might get 3-6 out of this!! is that right?

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Post by oldtimer Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:49 am

Ryan Where is the surface low forming? I thought it was a fast moving clipper Will it bomb out?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:51 am

Looks like I miss most of the fun, but this will be very interesting too see how high NYC, Jersey coast and LI can go with this. If I get 4 -6 up here I'll be happy but still envious.

Hopefully my discussions with NWS this past week will help with zookeeper totals. I will post the e-mails on that when this storm is all over with.

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:53 am

oldtimer wrote:Ryan  Where is the surface low forming?  I thought it was a fast moving clipper  Will it bomb out?
Not really anymore, we have more of a classic clipper diving down through the base of the arctic front, consolidating, and intensifying off the VA coast. Models have been trending toward a tucked in solution near BM with a deepening low near 990mb. Its increasingly likely this will be a large event.
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:01 am

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 3 10137210

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Post by oldtimer Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:03 am

The ratios are making the accumulations high, not the liquid content

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:05 am

oldtimer wrote:The ratios are making the accumulations high, not the liquid content
Yes, and no. Models have .5+. And if we have a tucked in low similar to the GFS, or RGEM, you would see closer to .7-.8 of liquid as the CCB would be more widespread in the area with increased banding potential off the ocean. But the ratios near 15-20:1 will certainly increase totals further than what we would normally see.
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Post by oldtimer Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:10 am

Wow! That's great Ryan Thxs for your help

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*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 3 Empty Snow Map / Timing, January 21, 2014 Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:21 am

*BLOG* Tuesday Snowstorm! - Page 3 1497549_675780625807033_1410005300_n

This snow map are my current thoughts for how this storm will unfold in terms of snowfall. I'm not sure if the NWS will issue blizzard watches or warnings for coastal areas, but blizzard-like conditions are possible for those area since the snow will be powdery and winds will easily blow it around due to the moderate winds. Especially once the storm deepens off the coast. There will be banding that sets up with this storm (CCB) and right now central and coastal NJ into Long Island seem to be the jackpot areas that could get into the CCB. NYC is very close, and they very well could get into it as well which would take them to the higher end of the 6-12 range.

Timing:

Start: 10am - 12pm

Heaviest snow: 10pm - 3am

End: 9am - 11am Wednesday morning (1/22)

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:22 am

No school Wednesday lol

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:25 am

Mets2695 wrote:No school Wednesday lol
Well if starts around 10am, how do we get home? lol. Im thinking they cancel tomorrow and wednesday or at least we get a early dismissal.
Love the map Frank. Really be interesting to see if the NWS pulls the trigger for the blizzard warnings.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:28 am

Snow map has been posted. Chat tonight at 8:30

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Post by jimv45 Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:33 am

With ratios in the 20.1 plus here in Southern Dutchess I can see even higher then what your map says!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:35 am

No, this map takes into consideration the 20:1 ratios

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:37 am

jimv45 wrote:With ratios in the 20.1 plus here in Southern Dutchess I can see even higher then what your map says!!
I think that may be wishful thinking on your part. I don't really see the Hudson Valley making all that well from the storm because our QPf will probably be very low. Even with higher ratios, I think will be very lucky and I'll be happy if we managed to get into the 4 to 6 range.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:38 am

Cut-offs will be sharp. That is why I put the "+" sign in the dark blue to account for that. Just a slight shift in either direction and snow totals could drastically change for better or worse.

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Post by jimv45 Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:42 am

Have a friend that works in the Albany weather station that got me into the weather seen and I think your map will be on the low end in the southern part of my county they are saying a 6 inch snow is becoming very likely now maybe more!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:43 am

Light blue may have been able to be extended further north more, but we'll see what happens.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:55 am

I should have waited until the 12z suites came in to post my map. I may have to increase my totals just a smidge.  Sad I mean...WOOHOOOO!!!!!  cheers 

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:55 am

sroc4 wrote:I should have waited until the 12z suites came in to post my map. I may have to increase my totals just a smidge.  Sad I mean...WOOHOOOO!!!!!
I said 1st call map....lol
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:56 am

I agree with this as of now.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:59 am

Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I should have waited until the 12z suites came in to post my map. I may have to increase my totals just a smidge.  Sad I mean...WOOHOOOO!!!!!
I said 1st call map....lol
I did too..just not out loud. I am still sticking with my original map though for the time being.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:59 am

Alex, looking at that ratio map, is that why the GFS has fairly similar totals for me as areas like LI where there will clearly be more precip. Does anyone know if that GFS snow map takes into account ratios? It will be colder by me. According to the 12z NAM, I get around .55" of liquid with temps approx 14 degrees during the heaviest precip.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:04 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Looks like I miss most of the fun, but this will be very interesting too see how high NYC, Jersey coast and LI can go with this.  If  I get 4 -6 up here I'll be happy but still envious.

Hopefully my discussions with NWS this past week will help with zookeeper totals.  I will post the e-mails on that when this storm is all over with.


According to NWS, I'm only getting 2 to 4 so we are definitely on the northern or western edge of this storm.Maybe a jog west will bump us up.Better get uised to this, CP, i thinkl this is the snowstorm track for this year, east and south.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:04 pm

12z GFS identical to the NAM.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48&parameter=PCPIN&level=24&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

IMO SFC temps are going to be huge here, this could be a 10"+ snowstorm easily with .5" QPF expected around CNJ, NYC and LI.

GFS SFC during heaviest precip.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=39&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Trended colder due to stronger storm, 20 degree line looks to hug the coast.
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