January 26-27 Possible System
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skinsfan1177
amugs
aiannone
jmanley32
sroc4
Yschiff
Quietace
11 posters
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Re: January 26-27 Possible System
sroc4 wrote:I will give this idea until this evenings 00z's before its gone. As Frank stated above I will conceded for the most part GFS, CMC, Euro, and NAM are in fairly good agreement at 500mb with the idea that the PV drags this energy with it around its center as it pulls to the N and east instead of it breaking off allowing it digging into the trough over the mid west. As much as I hate to be wrong if this happens it actually would enforce my idea that I mentioned in an earlier post about how the models will come to a consensus quicker on some of these storm potentials as we are in an established pattern instead of going through a major pattern transition as we did late last week into earlier this week.
Well if this is correct, and the models are coming to a consensus quicker - sorta like a learning curve to the confusing pattern, then i'm a little bummed by the over night model run outcomes for the late week event as well. I know we saw a huge turn around with the last storm late in the game, but my hope for a Miller A threat is somewhat diminished today as well. Maybe we see a coating monday to freshen the snowpack again...
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 26-27 Possible System
Radz wrote:sroc4 wrote:I will give this idea until this evenings 00z's before its gone. As Frank stated above I will conceded for the most part GFS, CMC, Euro, and NAM are in fairly good agreement at 500mb with the idea that the PV drags this energy with it around its center as it pulls to the N and east instead of it breaking off allowing it digging into the trough over the mid west. As much as I hate to be wrong if this happens it actually would enforce my idea that I mentioned in an earlier post about how the models will come to a consensus quicker on some of these storm potentials as we are in an established pattern instead of going through a major pattern transition as we did late last week into earlier this week.
Well if this is correct, and the models are coming to a consensus quicker - sorta like a learning curve to the confusing pattern, then i'm a little bummed by the over night model run outcomes for the late week event as well. I know we saw a huge turn around with the last storm late in the game, but my hope for a Miller A threat is somewhat diminished today as well. Maybe we see a coating monday to freshen the snowpack again...
Agreed. This is what Steve Dimartino had to say about the later in the week threat.
Steve D for midweek threat.
This 500 MB pattern is not support for a winter storm.
The Polar Vortex is not in the correct position for one. Forcing the mean trough east.
Note the VERY strong disturbance over south-central Canada. That's a "kicker".
It does what it sounds like. Kick anything along the coast, east.
As such, the threat for Wednesday is VERY low unless the 500 MB pattern complete changes. Threat for snow showers though.
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 26-27 Possible System
Isnt this storm the one with big potential?
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 26-27 Possible System
No this was for Monday. The better potential is later
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 26-27 Possible System
This storm will not happen. Maybe a snow shower. That's it.
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