NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

January 26-27 Possible System

+7
skinsfan1177
amugs
aiannone
jmanley32
sroc4
Yschiff
Quietace
11 posters

Page 2 of 2 Previous  1, 2

Go down

January 26-27 Possible System - Page 2 Empty Re: January 26-27 Possible System

Post by Radz Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:35 am

sroc4 wrote:I will give this idea until this evenings 00z's before its gone.  As Frank stated above I will conceded for the most part GFS, CMC, Euro, and NAM are in fairly good agreement at 500mb with the idea that the PV drags this energy with it around its center as it pulls to the N and east instead of it breaking off allowing it digging into the trough over the mid west.   As much as I hate to be wrong if this happens it actually would enforce my idea that I mentioned in an earlier post about how the models will come to a consensus quicker on some of these storm potentials as we are in an established pattern instead of going through a major pattern transition as we did late last week into earlier this week.

Well if this is correct, and the models are coming to a consensus quicker - sorta like a learning curve to the confusing pattern, then i'm a little bummed by the over night model run outcomes for the late week event as well. I know we saw a huge turn around with the last storm late in the game, but my hope for a Miller A threat is somewhat diminished today as well. Maybe we see a coating monday to freshen the snowpack again...

Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1027
Join date : 2013-01-12

Back to top Go down

January 26-27 Possible System - Page 2 Empty Re: January 26-27 Possible System

Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:19 am

Radz wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I will give this idea until this evenings 00z's before its gone.  As Frank stated above I will conceded for the most part GFS, CMC, Euro, and NAM are in fairly good agreement at 500mb with the idea that the PV drags this energy with it around its center as it pulls to the N and east instead of it breaking off allowing it digging into the trough over the mid west.   As much as I hate to be wrong if this happens it actually would enforce my idea that I mentioned in an earlier post about how the models will come to a consensus quicker on some of these storm potentials as we are in an established pattern instead of going through a major pattern transition as we did late last week into earlier this week.

Well if this is correct, and the models are coming to a consensus quicker - sorta like a learning curve to the confusing pattern, then i'm a little bummed by the over night model run outcomes for the late week event as well. I know we saw a huge turn around with the last storm late in the game, but my hope for a Miller A threat is somewhat diminished today as well. Maybe we see a coating monday to freshen the snowpack again...

Agreed. This is what Steve Dimartino had to say about the later in the week threat.

Steve D for midweek threat.

This 500 MB pattern is not support for a winter storm.
The Polar Vortex is not in the correct position for one. Forcing the mean trough east.
Note the VERY strong disturbance over south-central Canada. That's a "kicker".
It does what it sounds like. Kick anything along the coast, east.
As such, the threat for Wednesday is VERY low unless the 500 MB pattern complete changes. Threat for snow showers though.

sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

January 26-27 Possible System - Page 2 Empty Re: January 26-27 Possible System

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:29 pm

Isnt this storm the one with big potential?
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

January 26-27 Possible System - Page 2 Empty Re: January 26-27 Possible System

Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:51 pm

No this was for Monday. The better potential is later

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

January 26-27 Possible System - Page 2 Empty Re: January 26-27 Possible System

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 24, 2014 4:48 pm

This storm will not happen. Maybe a snow shower. That's it.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 26-27 Possible System - Page 2 Empty Re: January 26-27 Possible System

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 2 Previous  1, 2

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum