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February 2014 General Observations / Discussions

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Post by Radz Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:30 am

[quote="docstox12"]Glad I had a new roof installed last year over my old one

My neighbor had a new roof installed last spring by his "buddy", leaking into his bay window yesterday- had to go over and chip away a path for the water to escape when i got home last night- don't know if they installed ice and water guard or not but the damn was only 12" back from edge
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:34 am

I suspected that about a new roof.Only solution is to go up there and chop away everythhng from the gutters and windows.That's not going to happen.

Read somewhere that they have gutters with heaters in them.You would probably have spent a fortune this year on electricity running those.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:38 am

http://www.heaterzone.com/Roof_Gutter_De_Icing_Heater_Cable_s/36.htm

Can you imagine going up there and installing this in the fall?Would have to hire somebody to do that.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:04 pm

I cannot believe that after todays 2.4" I am at 60.15" for the year!!!  And looking at how I got there amazes me.  Little here, little there, with a moderate event sprinkled in between. Great winter and it may not be done yet.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:55 pm

Great Doc!

As CP pointed out in one of his great statistical analysis posts, this winter has been an area wide snow event.I'm at 62 and the LI fol;ks like you have that and more.

Still thinking we can easily get to number two in Centarl Park and in my town Mahwah NJ.

If you, Frank and Tom can cook up another Godzilla, we have a shot at being number one this year!
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:02 pm

Been up on my flat roof twice in the week to get the snow off and clean out the gutters. It warmed up just enough this weekend to get ice loose from the gutters.

I recommend a long floor chisel if you're going to chop out the ice from gutters...
http://www.harborfreight.com/3-inch-big-head-concrete-floor-chisel-6759.html
File down the tip and corners of the chisel first or you'll go through the aluminum. I used to do gutter cleaning and this was the best tool for the job, whether it was pulling out leaves and dirt or chopping out ice. If you're up on a ladder it gives you an extra foot of reach.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:06 pm

NWS has freezing rain advisories for NW Bergen County and the HV.Could be dangerous tomorrow morning.Be careful everybody from these parts.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:30 pm

@docstox12 wrote:NWS has freezing rain advisories for NW Bergen County and the HV.Could be dangerous tomorrow morning.Be careful everybody from these parts.
Anotehr delayed opening in the works - MOMMA MIA!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:35 pm

NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067-069-190400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.ZR.Y.0004.140219T1200Z-140219T1700Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-ROCKLAND-
345 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO ICY
ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


_________________
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:33 pm

@amugs wrote:NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067-069-190400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.ZR.Y.0004.140219T1200Z-140219T1700Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-ROCKLAND-
345 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
 PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK WEST OF THE
 HUDSON RIVER.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO ICY
 ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


NAM says "Don't worry about this crap"

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html

Hope it's right.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:43 pm

With the GLC this week, I see thunderstorms being a possibility in this area, given impressive wind shear at all atmospheric levels, slight increase in lifting and CAPE index I see non-severe storms being a possibility on Friday.

February 2014 General Observations / Discussions  - Page 6 2_21sh10

February 2014 General Observations / Discussions  - Page 6 2_21li10

February 2014 General Observations / Discussions  - Page 6 2_21ca10

SPC (for severe storms)

February 2014 General Observations / Discussions  - Page 6 2_21sp10

Due to the frontal passing coming through our area late Friday morning I am not too concerned about severe weather due to cells not having much time to build up strength during the day. I do however suspect some lightning and rumbles of thunder.

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Post by HectorO Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:45 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I cannot believe that after todays 2.4" I am at 60.15" for the year!!!  And looking at how I got there amazes me.  Little here, little there, with a moderate event sprinkled in between.  Great winter and it may not be done yet.  

It's definitely not done yet. March could get off to a real good start. And Next week things look interesting. I just hope the weekend of March 8th there is none of that. I'm organizing a big party with people flying in and I can't reschedule.
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Post by Radz Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:04 pm

@docstox12 wrote:http://www.heaterzone.com/Roof_Gutter_De_Icing_Heater_Cable_s/36.htm

Can you imagine going up there and installing this in the fall?Would have to hire somebody to do that.

Yeah, i had one customer inquire about the heat cables, instead, i talked him into trying his attic vent fan in the winter - worked like a charm but this year woulda been the test! He moved to Florida last year - i may never know…
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:27 pm

Radz, just curious, but wouldn't using the attic fan raise the cost of heating the house as warm air would be pulled up there to heat the roof and gutters?

Maybe the electric for the cables would balance that out.

Great idea, by the way, which eliminates the need for these warming cables.

After this winter,I'm ready for a couple of months in Fla with 80 degrees!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:01 pm

I've overseen your guys conversation and boy, am I glad my roof is steeply pitched, always slides off/blows off fairly easily considering my house faces west and is usually straight in oncoming wind.
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Post by HeresL Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:13 pm

Question: The weather Channel app says West Milford, NJ is supposed to get 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow. I don't see this forecast anywhere else. Is this a possibility?
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:21 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I've overseen your guys conversation and boy, am I glad my roof is steeply pitched, always slides off/blows off fairly easily considering my house faces west and is usually straight in oncoming wind.

Your lucky at a time like this.

Mine has a pretty good pitch, but not that steep because when I was a young buck I'd be able to walk up and around everywhere.That helps for access but it collects a lot of snow which melts and refreezes in the gutters.As someone said, roof and gutter guys around here are gonna cash in big come Spring.I can see a lot of gutters peeling away from the fascia with all the extra weight.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:22 pm

@HeresL wrote:Question: The weather Channel app says West Milford, NJ is supposed to get 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow. I don't see this forecast anywhere else. Is this a possibility?

Well, NWS does not mention snow at all around here, just freezing rain.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:37 pm

@HeresL wrote:Question: The weather Channel app says West Milford, NJ is supposed to get 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow. I don't see this forecast anywhere else. Is this a possibility?

The NAM has shown a quick hit of heavy precip for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be very borderline but if it cold enough yes there could be a surprise quick hit snow in NW jersey and the HV from about 40 miles north of NYC. It will probaly be to warm anywhere else if it happens, 2-4 inches not out of the question.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:42 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@HeresL wrote:Question: The weather Channel app says West Milford, NJ is supposed to get 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow. I don't see this forecast anywhere else. Is this a possibility?

Well, NWS does not mention snow at all around here, just freezing rain.
I'd rather snow!!! Frz rain is the worst as is freezing fog

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by HeresL Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:43 pm

I love snow, but this is getting crazy. I can't remember the last time I have seen this much snow on the ground. I'll let ya all know if I see any flakes falling. Not sure how much more weight many roofs can take.. Not to mention our roads are a mess... Freezing rain and snow tomorrow will surely make things even more interesting.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:11 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@HeresL wrote:Question: The weather Channel app says West Milford, NJ is supposed to get 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow. I don't see this forecast anywhere else. Is this a possibility?

The NAM has shown a quick hit of heavy precip for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be very borderline but if it cold enough yes there could be a surprise quick hit snow in NW jersey and the HV from about 40 miles north of NYC. It will probaly be to warm anywhere else if it happens, 2-4 inches not out of the question.

Look at the temperature profiles on the NAM, only the far northern HV has 850s and surface temps below freezing. Everywhere else looks like rain event due to warm upper levels and warm surface. I expect a burst of moderate rainfall, that's about it. Unless of course you are that far north.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:13 pm

0z NAM on 2/21

February 2014 General Observations / Discussions  - Page 6 Nam_2210
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:20 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@HeresL wrote:Question: The weather Channel app says West Milford, NJ is supposed to get 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow. I don't see this forecast anywhere else. Is this a possibility?

The NAM has shown a quick hit of heavy precip for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be very borderline but if it cold enough yes there could be a surprise quick hit snow in NW jersey and the HV from about 40 miles north of NYC. It will probaly be to warm anywhere else if it happens, 2-4 inches not out of the question.

Look at the temperature profiles on the NAM, only the far northern HV has 850s and surface temps below freezing. Everywhere else looks like rain event due to warm upper levels and warm surface. I expect a burst of moderate rainfall, that's about it. Unless of course you are that far north.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html

I agree to an extent, but the temperature profiles are close enough and the onset of heavy precip may cool them enough that I could see even where I am which is 45 miles north of NYC getting a quick burst of snow out of it, maybe even starting as rain. It will be during the afternoon and best case I see it getting to 33-34 degrees during the heaviest precip so I haven't even brought it up tonight. Heresl asked so yes the possibility is there.

And look who i have on my side TWC. Not exactly comforting for me LOL.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:24 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@HeresL wrote:Question: The weather Channel app says West Milford, NJ is supposed to get 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow. I don't see this forecast anywhere else. Is this a possibility?

The NAM has shown a quick hit of heavy precip for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be very borderline but if it cold enough yes there could be a surprise quick hit snow in NW jersey and the HV from about 40 miles north of NYC. It will probaly be to warm anywhere else if it happens, 2-4 inches not out of the question.

Look at the temperature profiles on the NAM, only the far northern HV has 850s and surface temps below freezing. Everywhere else looks like rain event due to warm upper levels and warm surface. I expect a burst of moderate rainfall, that's about it. Unless of course you are that far north.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html

I agree to an extent, but the temperature profiles are close enough and the onset of heavy precip may cool them enough that I could see even where I am which is 45 miles north of NYC getting a quick burst of snow out of it, maybe even starting as rain. It will be during the afternoon and best case I see it getting to 33-34 degrees during the heaviest precip so I haven't even brought it up tonight. Heresl asked so yes the possibility is there.

And look who i have on my side TWC. Not exactly comforting for me LOL.

I agree it's a possibility but in my humble opinion in only the furthest north areas of the HV, if anything it would start as snow and go to rain as 850s looks to surge in the afternoon along with surface temps.
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