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February 2014 General Observations / Discussions

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:59 am

Tornado watch up in the Delmarva. Can we stop talking about snow for a sec and focus on the ongoing storm? haha

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:05 am

HectorO wrote:You guys are nuts.

accepted

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:13 am

today is feels like the coldest nastiest day of winter. i'm at 34* with drizzle and a e/ne wind. what happened to the 54* high for the day? a big bust on temps n/w of nyc. these warm fronts never seem to make it past the coastal areas in winter. I can conceive a dry frontal passage later today. maybe a very brief downpour and that's it. atmosphere is very stable with the ocean influence and the e/ne wind.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:20 am

algae888 wrote:today is feels like the coldest nastiest day of winter. i'm at 34* with drizzle and a e/ne wind. what happened to the 54* high for the day? a big bust on temps n/w of nyc. these warm fronts never seem to make it past the coastal areas in winter. I can conceive a dry frontal passage later today. maybe a very brief downpour and that's it. atmosphere is very stable with the ocean influence and the e/ne wind.

Not stable at all in NJ and south. i can see it being stable enough to prevent major convection up there like i said north o 80 is the cutoff imho
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:27 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
algae888 wrote:today is feels like the coldest nastiest day of winter. i'm at 34* with drizzle and a e/ne wind. what happened to the 54* high for the day? a big bust on temps n/w of nyc. these warm fronts never seem to make it past the coastal areas in winter. I can conceive a dry frontal passage later today. maybe a very brief downpour and that's it. atmosphere is very stable with the ocean influence and the e/ne wind.

Not stable at all in NJ and south. i can see it being stable enough to prevent major convection up there like i said north o 80 is the cutoff imho
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
NEWARK/LIBERTY DRZL/FOG 36 36 100 NE7 29.88F VSB 1/2 WCI 30
TETERBORO CLOUDY 39 36 89 E5 29.88R FOG
CALDWELL CLOUDY 37 35 92 NE7 29.88F FOG WCI 32
MORRISTOWN LGT RAIN 37 37 100 NE3 29.88F VSB 1
SOMERVILLE CLOUDY 38 37 97 N3 29.82F FOG
LINDEN FOG 39 38 98 NE5 29.89S VSB 1/2
SUSSEX CLOUDY 36 35 96 CALM 29.81F FOG
ANDOVER N/A 39 39 100 CALM 29.81F
TRENTON FOG 39 39 100 E7 29.81F VSB<1/4 WCI 34
MILLVILLE CLOUDY 59 55 87 S10G21 29.82F
ATLANTIC CITY CLOUDY 52 52 100 S16G23 29.85S FOG
WRIGHTSTOWN CLOUDY 54 54 100 SE5 29.79F FOG
TOMS RIVER CLOUDY 57 55 94 S9 29.84F
BELMAR CLOUDY 45 41 87 E5 29.84F VSB<1/4
$$
these are current temps across NJ at 11am. seems like the warm front is south of Trenton and central NJ coast. look at the temps difference. I can see strong storms where the warm front has already passed. the question is how far north does the front come?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:28 am

algae888 wrote:today is feels like the coldest nastiest day of winter. i'm at 34* with drizzle and a e/ne wind. what happened to the 54* high for the day? a big bust on temps n/w of nyc. these warm fronts never seem to make it past the coastal areas in winter. I can conceive a dry frontal passage later today. maybe a very brief downpour and that's it. atmosphere is very stable with the ocean influence and the e/ne wind.

same here, 34 breezy and nasty.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:33 am

39 here, breezy, misty and foggy
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:34 am

from mt. holly TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND IT DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS
AND TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT.

I guess NWS had there concerns for max temps. always a tricky forecast with warm fronts
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:41 am

February 2014 General Observations / Discussions  - Page 12 Radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=50&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=LWX&type=NCR&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=50&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=LWX&type=NCR&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

SNJ from Trenton South is going to get slammed by this line in the radar

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:44 am

HWO up for me for thunderstorms, gusty winds and locally high rainfall and flooding.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:46 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:HWO up for me for thunderstorms, gusty winds and locally high rainfall and flooding.

Just keep it from Hillsborough on south. If it was May I could get excited for this, now I want no part of it.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:47 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:HWO up for me for thunderstorms, gusty winds and locally high rainfall and flooding.

Just keep it from Hillsborough on south. If it was May I could get excited for this, now I want no part of it.

Ditto - HAHAHA!

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:48 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:That'll make for a nice 50-50 low. Players are starting to position themselves on the field. Don't care if the EURO lost the blockbuster storm. The upcoming pattern is so damn explosive. You have the freakin polar vortex coming down in early March, along with strengthening southern jet, ridging out west. I don't think its a matter of if we get a big storm my friends, but when. bounce 

I read stuff like this and my heart rate goes up 50 beats with just the thought of the possibilities.

What the heck is wrong with me.

There's nothing wrong with you, your just a SUPER SNOW WEEEENNNIIIEEE !!!

I know just how you feel. When I hear about a possible large snow event, I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas morning to see what Santa has brought me. It just gets me excited that Mother Nature may clobber us and prove she's still in charge. I've felt this way every since I was a kid and you know what I'm 54 years old and that feeling is still the same. It's like a snow addiction, the more we get the better I feel. CRAZY but true.  Very Happy bounce


Last edited by SNOW MAN on Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:52 am; edited 1 time in total
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February 2014 General Observations / Discussions  - Page 12 Empty WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF LI THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD

Post by algae888 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:49 am

latest from upton.. WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF LI THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT
A SLOWER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH MAY BE AS LATE AS 1 OR 2 PM.
THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS LI. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WARM FRONTAL TIMING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS. IN FACT...HIGHS MAY VERY WELL
OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ONSET OF WESTERLY WINDS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR AT
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PRECEDES THE FRONT AND WILL
INCREASE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
MIX DOWN A PORTION OF THE 50 KT TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WIND WITH SUB
SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:50 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:That'll make for a nice 50-50 low. Players are starting to position themselves on the field. Don't care if the EURO lost the blockbuster storm. The upcoming pattern is so damn explosive. You have the freakin polar vortex coming down in early March, along with strengthening southern jet, ridging out west. I don't think its a matter of if we get a big storm my friends, but when. bounce 

I read stuff like this and my heart rate goes up 50 beats with just the thought of the possibilities.

What the heck is wrong with me.

There's nothing wrong with you, your just a SUPER SNOW WEEEENNNIIIEEE !!!

I know just how you feel. When I hear about a possible large snow event, I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas morning to see what Santa has brought me. It just gets me excited that Mother Nature may clobber us and prove she's still in charge. I've felt like this every since I was a kid and you know what I'm 54 years old and that feeling is still the same. It's like a snow addiction, the more we get the better I feel. CRAZY but true.  Very Happy bounce

My feelings and my life verbatim Snowman and Mugs.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:50 am

CP, I like all kinds of weather, want to see some action, dont care about the snowpack really, just wanna see a lightshow, after this pulls through then we can get more focused on the upcoming snow events, ATM theyre all still too far in the long range to lock in so im enjoying whats happening.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:57 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:CP, I like all kinds of weather, want to see some action, dont care about the snowpack really, just wanna see a lightshow, after this pulls through then we can get more focused on the upcoming snow events, ATM theyre all still too far in the long range to lock in so im enjoying whats happening.

Tom: I love a good lightshow in the spring or summer too, just not now unless it goes along with intense snowfall rates.

I understand though, fascination with snow and extreme weather is what we're all addicted to. It's what makes us different. I have a wife and three kids, parents, and siblings and none of them have it or understand it.

Sometimes I think it's some kind of mutant gene we all share on these weather forums.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:30 pm

Thunderstorms reported in SEPA moving NNE
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Post by deblanka Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:42 pm

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 26
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

TORNADO WATCH 26 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-212200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0026.140221T1740Z-140221T2200Z/

NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH OCEAN SALEM
SOMERSET
$$

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:04 pm

deblanka wrote:TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 26
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

TORNADO WATCH 26 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-212200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0026.140221T1740Z-140221T2200Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BURLINGTON          CAMDEN
CAPE MAY             CUMBERLAND          GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH             OCEAN               SALEM
SOMERSET
$$

Wow thats me, alert just popped up on phone and was about to post, very, very rare this time of year. As of now visibility is 300ft max and temp is 43 and rising. Humidity is 100% and DP is currently 45.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:05 pm

February 2014 General Observations / Discussions  - Page 12 Phi10
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:06 pm

Record for many advisories for one time period? Wow...

Tornado Watch in effect from February 21, 12:40 PM EST until February 21, 05:00 PM EST
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until February 21, 03:00 PM EST
Flood Watch in effect from February 21, 10:00 AM EST until February 21, 10:00 PM EST
Hazardous Weather Outlook
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:08 pm

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:10 pm

HMM where's the warm front?

February 2014 General Observations / Discussions  - Page 12 Njwxne10
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:47 pm

I'm going to engage these storms momentarily, hope to get some good video I can share with you guys.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=PHL&type=TR0&showstorms=10&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0
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Post by Sparky Sparticles Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:55 pm

Count me as another one disappointed we didn't get the promised 55+ degrees and heavy rain.

I checked out my diagonally parked 2 cars yesterday - the tiny Toyota had at least 2 feet high ice at the back of it stretching from a few inches away from the bumper and tailpipe to the edge of the single plowed lane in the center of our 2-way street, 8-10 feet away. At least I was able to get into it and warm it up after my son chipped out the tailpipe space out a bit more.

The station wagon is parked on the end of a row, also diagonally parked, but the next space to the left is the mid-block fire hydrant. In that space the plows pushed up a 15 foot high pile of dirty snow over the course of the past month. It has a 4 foot high pile of ice at the back of it, thanks to not only the plow but the neighboring car's owner who just shoveled his snow behind my car instead of elsewhere. It has the same 8 foot stretch of snow and ice to the edge of the plowed lane. The snow touches my car on three sides, leaving only the passenger side door visible. I won't be able to get into this car until maybe mid-March, *if* I'm lucky. Good thing I just got a new battery in it this past July, the same day my husband had his CABG surgery, the day the old battery died when I was parked on the upper level of the parking deck of Newark Beth Israel in 105º heat and AAA had to come save me.

I went back out this morning to look over the mess, hoping that the above freezing temps overnight helped. It looks like the upper 4-6 inches and the outer edges of all the snow piles melted down, but that still leaves me with over a foot and a half high ice pile behind the Toyota and about 7 feet from the bumper to the traffic lane. And that ice is solid - can't even get a shovel into it.

We expected a UPS delivery the other day and got an email telling us it's been delayed because the trucks can't get safely deliver. I can't blame them, not when my 2-way street is now one lane and if you veer even an inch out of the lane cars are getting stuck in the ice. It's a horror show out there.

I guess we're walking to the mom & pop grocery store to pick up more veggies and bread again this weekend instead of driving to the chain store and restocking my freezer and pantry. Unless by some miracle we *do* get those higher temps and a gullywasher of a thunderstorm later today and tomorrow and frees my car from the icy clutches of Mother Nature by Sunday. After I restock it can snow as much as it wants again, but I haven't seen the inside of a decent grocery store in over a month!
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:59 pm

Sparky, all the best to you.Hang in there!

37 degrees here fog comes and goes.Glad the severe weather seems to be south of me, don't need tornadoes with 80 foot oak trees around my house.
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