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February 12th-14th Storm Potential

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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 08, 2014 11:52 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I'm not convinced on trusting the EURO in the long range, it just hasn't done well at all this year. This storm to me is not looking great at the moment, of course it's far out but with bad teleconnections it isn't making me too excited.
Im not convinced by any model yet. The evolution and formation of the system are still vastly different.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 08, 2014 12:23 pm

Way too early but NWS has been sticking with snow for me but down from 70% to 50% chance.

They are still saying mix NYC and LI and all snow N & W.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 08, 2014 12:59 pm

One thing that seems consistent no matter what model you look at is that after the storm passes there is not much cold air. Flow comes out of the southwest as the storm moves along which is no good. Really needs to deepen fast to pull in colder air. It's going to be a tough setup to get right for an I-95 snowstorm. Interior has a far better chance.
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 08, 2014 1:07 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:One thing that seems consistent no matter what model you look at is that after the storm passes there is not much cold air. Flow comes out of the southwest as the storm moves along which is no good. Really needs to deepen fast to pull in colder air. It's going to be a tough setup to get right for an I-95 snowstorm. Interior has a far better chance.
That is due to the low over the Northern Plains. Creates a SW flow into the area. The 0z Euro had the low still in Canada with little effect on out temps. And of course the stale air mass and the offshore position of the HP.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 08, 2014 1:12 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:One thing that seems consistent no matter what model you look at is that after the storm passes there is not much cold air. Flow comes out of the southwest as the storm moves along which is no good. Really needs to deepen fast to pull in colder air. It's going to be a tough setup to get right for an I-95 snowstorm. Interior has a far better chance.
That is due to the low over the Northern Plains. Creates a SW flow into the area. The 0z Euro had the low still in Canada with little effect on out temps.

There is also a high pressure in the south which is trying to pump a SW flow into the area, it's pulling gulf heat right into the area and the storm needs to try hard to overcome this, look at the temps on the EURO, very marginal at best.

February 12th-14th Storm Potential  - Page 2 Screen33

SFC temps are hideous, this is the frame with the most pcpn

February 12th-14th Storm Potential  - Page 2 Screen34
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 08, 2014 1:17 pm

Well of course, with a stung out weak low and the Hp in the incorrect spot for reinforcing cold air, we are not going to see crashing 850 and Surface temps we need for this system. With the 850 low over the plains further northwest limiting the SW flow and the HP to our north in a more favorable position AND a deeper LP then we might have something here, but that's a lot we need. Still days away.
GFS and EURO are still world apart.
12z is running now lets see what happens.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 08, 2014 1:34 pm

UKIE

February 12th-14th Storm Potential  - Page 2 Post-6-0-11963500-1391881098

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 08, 2014 1:48 pm

What the UKIE shows we need a LP this deep or deeper to give a solid snow event if not we get slop to rain.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 08, 2014 2:12 pm

GEFS - looks good so far

February 12th-14th Storm Potential  - Page 2 F138

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 08, 2014 2:19 pm

Lack of cold air is a huge problem here, look at that bottom left member, huge beautiful storm but cold air, absent....
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 08, 2014 3:18 pm

With the antecedent air mass we will likely need a bombing low off the coast to pull the arctic air in. However, we shouldn't concern ourselves with looking at rain or snow at this time for this storm. Let's give it a couple more days.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 08, 2014 3:31 pm

EURO still shows a moderate storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 08, 2014 3:52 pm

The euro ensembles are a coastal hugger. Snow to rain

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:09 pm

12z GFS ENS

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html

Best case is the bottom left and bottom right run.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:14 pm

Mt. Holly

THE 1200 UTC ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
BRINGING US A NORTHEASTER FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE 1200 UTC GFS AFFECTS OUR REGION WITH A COASTAL STORM
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF
SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW MAY APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE THE COAST TO
CAUSE A MIX TO RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN OUR
REGION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OF COURSE, IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS 4 TO 5 DAYS IN ADVANCE.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:20 pm

Well that sounds encouraging, the NWS doesnt say stuff like that unless they mean business.  What is it with Wednesdays?  I guess the wx wants to make my treck to school difficult lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:24 pm

Just checked 12z GFS, has it very close to coast for what looks like rain for most, hope its wrong and dips a bit further south.  LOL first we have been wishing storms trend north now we want them to trend south.  Anyone have the euro maps>  NWS was saying that looked more promising.  BTW anyone else have a issue with people putting cones or other items in the street to stop people from parking in them?  Its mu understanding that all street parking is fair game for anyone you can't "reserve" a spot on the street and in fact I think its a fine if they know who did it.  Really burns me since im not a confrontational person but really just wan t to get out move it and park there.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:33 pm

Just saw NWS Upton not nearly as encouraging as Mt. Holly in fact nearly completely different.  Odd how they can be so different when a lot of places are right next to each other.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 08, 2014 5:43 pm

18z GFS phases the storm VERY late, no precip.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 08, 2014 6:09 pm

12z EURO control

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 08, 2014 7:45 pm

I am going to ride the Euro and the ukie on this one - just a feeling and The Euro handles the southern vorts much better. Only time will tell with this storm like mon night and tuesday 6Z runs.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 08, 2014 8:26 pm

@amugs wrote:I am going to ride the Euro and the ukie on this one - just a feeling and The Euro handles the southern vorts much better. Only time will tell with this storm like mon night and tuesday 6Z runs.

Even if they are right temps look to be an issue. It's too far away for me to feel comfortable enough to hone in on a single solution.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 08, 2014 11:16 pm

GFS made great strides towards the Euro tonight with this storm (caved to a degree) - not a complete phase but moved the storm up like 42 hours. Again the Euro has the hot hand on these southern vort storms the GFS has been garbage and this is what Mt Holly is and said it is following. If we get a euro type solution temps maybe a problem for coastal NJ and LI, not really for NNJ, NWNJ, EPA and HV IMO  but we have a lot of time for this to sort out - I hope not OTS!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 09, 2014 1:19 am

Euro has a huge storm for Thursday. Coastal hugger, which is rain for most. But not concerned about temps right now. Would like to see where we stand with this on Monday. The progressive flow out west suggest a more eastern track

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 09, 2014 1:21 am

If the PV over the Hudson trends more south and east, could help prevent this storm from hugging the coast and tracking over the BM

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