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02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions

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02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions  Empty 02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:25 pm

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions  February_13_final_snow_map

Here is my final snow map for this storm. Keep in mind this will include sleet for some locations, specifically northern NJ and NYC Metro down to Philly Metro. A powerful storm being advertised at 985 mb or lower will track up the coast late tonight through the day tomorrow. We will start with a heavy thumping of snow, which could see 1-2 inch snowfall rates per hour. Around midday or late morning, snow will change to sleet / mix / rain, but H7 is showing a dry slot settling over the area by then. By the evening, a strong CCB will form over our area and drop additional snowfall. This is a 24+ hour duration storm.

I think the CCB will set up over NEPA, NW NJ, NNJ, NYC, and points north of there. This is the wildcard. If it really intensifies, this band could drop 4-8+ inches of snow or more in a short period of time as the snow just trains over the same areas before it finally lifts out.

Timing:

Start: 3-4 am Thursday

Heaviest snow: 7-10 am Thursday

Changeover: 11 am - 12 pm Thursday

Back to snow (CCB): 12 am - 7 am FRIDAY

Winds:

Between 20-30 mph sustained with gusts over 40-45 mph at times, especially along immediate coast and Long Island. If it is snowing and you are caught in a wind burst, blizzard conditions are likely. No blizzard watches / warnings expected.

NWS Watches/Warnings:

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions  Usnj

Click on your county to read what it says

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/severe/warnings/all/usnj.html

I also want to mention that this is a nowcast storm and a high volatile forecast and slight changes in track could result in differing snow amounts. As of now, this is how I see it playing out. I will not be changing my snow map again. If I see there are major changes tonight or tomorrow, I will make everyone aware.


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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:28 pm

your snow maps are always on point i'll take your word.

1 question will it be hard to measure with the rain washing the snow that fell away?
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Post by deadrabbit79 Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:34 pm

So your saying its going to snow? Very Happy 

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Post by pdubz Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:35 pm

thank you for recognizing that northern Nassau usually stays colder or over preforms thus keeping us in the 8-12 but it will be close!
and a 12 hour dry slot? thats a long time but better then rain the entire time
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Post by oldtimer Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:42 pm

Frank Up until the time we get to the CCB the 12hrs in between is that a "Dry Slot" or does it actually rains all that time

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Post by gigs68 Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:43 pm

Frank,

Based on your timing of the storm and snow impacts, are schools on Long Island more likely to close on Thursday or Friday, Both or neither.
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Post by cooladi Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:44 pm

NWS has western Nassau County still under a Winter Storm Watch, yet they are forecasting 1-3 tonight, 1-3 Thurs and 1-3 Thurs night. That's 3-9 and should meet WS Warning criteria.
I will absolutely be watching this storm carefully as it unfolds and making decisions as necessary. Very concerned for others who may not take this seriously. Really do hope NWS and mass media gets the word out, and that Mayor DeBlasio gets his forecast here and chooses safety...

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:45 pm

Between the dry slot it can do anything. That is where nowcasting comes in. Hard to say.

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Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:49 pm

Frank you have the mid Hudson valley 24 plus possible reason? I think the back end of storm is going to surprise a lot of people!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:51 pm

My forecast for red zone is 15-20. I added 24+ because snowfall rates could be high at times from the CCB in those areas. Hard to say. But 15-20 is the forecast for there. Not 24+

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Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:56 pm

Thanks Frank! This site is very good I been into weather for over 30 years worked for a small weather station out of collage in Wiccopee in Hopewell jct in the early 90s for local radio so its good to get back into weather so keep up the good work!

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Post by oldtimer Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:58 pm

Cool IMO We will get a Winter Weather Advisory this afternoon With this storm its hard to add 1-3,1-3,1-3 and get 3-9 there so much time in between where it will be raining So when all said and done you might have 3-4 inches of slush This is not criteria for a WSW from NWS

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:00 pm

From your mouth to Gods ears Frank. If that verifies I'm golden as are many others.
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:00 pm

Just watched the latest forecasts at noon time from Philly, Allentown, and NY. they were saying warm air might be drawn in all way up to my area which would turn the snow to rain. So confused with this storm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:01 pm

EURO is a big hit. Places the CCB where I think it will form

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions  ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:04 pm

Some people on other sites think I am crazy for making this map. I guess it is time to prove them wrong? Hopefully...

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Post by pdubz Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:04 pm

was the euro colder or same thing
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Post by Sparky Sparticles Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Start: 3-4 am Thursday

Oh, great.  Rolling Eyes My husband usually leaves for work at 5am. Now I'll have to convince him that he really should take another pool day and stay home tomorrow so he doesn't get caught in:

Heaviest snow: 7-10 am Thursday

THIS stuff as soon as he gets off the subway in Newark. If we do get as much as many people are predicting, if he does go in he may not be able to get home when he leaves at 3:30pm.


Back to snow (CCB): 12 am - 7 am FRIDAY

And this pretty much guarantees he'll have to take off Friday, anyway.

Ah, who wanted a summer or fall vacation, anyway.  Sad 


I also want to mention that this is a nowcast storm and a high volatile forecast and slight changes in track could result in differing snow amounts.


You can say that again! I can change the TV to 5 different stations and get 5 different forecasts, giving us anywhere from 2-4 inches to over a foot here in Hudson county! I guess I'll just wake up in the morning and be surprised.
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Post by oldtimer Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:06 pm

That looks good Frank That would be moving SE right?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:07 pm

EURO says, "Francesco, you're not crazy"

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions  Post-155-0-28055300-1392228278

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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:10 pm

Holy Crow, have been incommunicado here since yesterday AM and I come back to find three of the guys maps here saying I could get up to 20 inches or more! Thought someone mentioned yesterday's NAM was taking this east.Don't see that here.These are the best storms for my area when NYC, LI and Jersey Coast mix and go to rain.

Hey CP, looks like we get it good this time.If it pans out, we will even up or pass the snowe totals of the S and E guys and gals!

Thin, high clouds building in the SW.
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Post by oldtimer Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:11 pm

Wow! That's nice

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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Some people on other sites think I am crazy for making this map. I guess it is time to prove them wrong? Hopefully...

As we stock traders say "No b__ls, no glory!"
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Post by cooladi Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:12 pm

oldtimer thanks for your reply a page or two back. Nassau County is already under a winter weather advisory. Just pointing out that using simple math and their own posted totals, it should meet NWS warning criteria. What some may think of as a minimal slushy mess, others may need to plan appropriately for.

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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:12 pm

Thats colder than 0z Frank.
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