Re: 02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions

by **docstox12** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Due to the faster pace of the storm, I am now expecting heaviest snows to fall between 2am-8am with a changeover for coastal sections (and maybe a dry slot) around 10-11am

Guess I'll be waking up around 4 AM to check.

by HEATMISER Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:28 pm

algae888 wrote:latest from upton.. A WEAK SE FLOW/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN LI HAS
RESULTED IN FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN JUST NOW
ENTERING SOUTHERN VA. TIMING FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP
IS STILL ON COURSE FOR AROUND MIDNIGHT...SPREADING FIRST ACROSS
NYC METRO..NE NJ...AND LI.

INTERESTING TO NOTE ON LATEST WATER VAPOR AND LIGHTNING IMAGERY
SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AS
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS GULF COAST STATES, MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS ANALYZED FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NE TO OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH THE FORMER THE PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON THU.

NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING FORECASTS THIS
WINTER FROM A THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE...WITH THE TIMING AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. HEAVIEST PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH A CHANGEOVER FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. EXACTLY WHEN THAT HAPPENS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

Sounds to me upton may be setting us up for a bump is numbers

by **cooladi** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:29 pm

At this point I'd personally contribute some $$$ for upgrades. Haven't caught any network storm coverage this evening at all. Have there been any press conferences with any of our elected officials? NOAA's WSW contains language about not traveling unless it is an emergency. Ordinary business for those of us who are not clearing streets, running transportation, power, or medical professions is NOT an emergency. So why does it seem like this storm is being treated like business as usual?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:31 pm

Hearing from another board SREF mean for Trenton went from 7.8" to 10" snow, sounds good for upstream by me.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:32 pm

This is extremely interesting. 95% of the computer models are showing this storm track east of the current projected path. Obviously that would mean more snow due to less mixing, less snow for EPA though

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 15 1932399_10153804344915344_1243559170_n

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 15 1932399_10153804344915344_1243559170_n

by **algae888** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:33 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Due to the faster pace of the storm, I am now expecting heaviest snows to fall between 2am-8am with a changeover for coastal sections (and maybe a dry slot) around 10-11am

Guess I'll be waking up around 4 AM to check.

who's going to sleep tonight? have to be up when the first flakes start falling

by **docstox12** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:34 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:This is extremely interesting. 95% of the computer models are showing this storm track east of the current projected path. Obviously that would mean more snow due to less mixing, less snow for EPA though

That is good news for our immediate area.Don't want to deal with a heavy layer of slop on top of the snow again like the last one.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:34 pm

WPC is basically saying the storm will follow the black track. Hmmmmm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:34 pm

algae888 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Due to the faster pace of the storm, I am now expecting heaviest snows to fall between 2am-8am with a changeover for coastal sections (and maybe a dry slot) around 10-11am

Guess I'll be waking up around 4 AM to check.

who's going to sleep tonight? have to be up when the first flakes start falling

I wanna be up for the heavy stuff.

by **cooladi** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:35 pm

Algae you need to save your strength for the bended knee dance on Friday. Congrats to you and your bride to be...

by **docstox12** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:36 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
algae888 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Due to the faster pace of the storm, I am now expecting heaviest snows to fall between 2am-8am with a changeover for coastal sections (and maybe a dry slot) around 10-11am

Guess I'll be waking up around 4 AM to check.

who's going to sleep tonight? have to be up when the first flakes start falling

I wanna be up for the heavy stuff.

I've got to get some sleep to have energy to shovel out the property.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:36 pm

i have a real concernabout flooding and winds at the coast no dunes here still alot of issues from sandy

by HEATMISER Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:37 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:WPC is basically saying the storm will follow the black track. Hmmmmm

So frank does that mean more snow less mixing for the island

by **algae888** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:37 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
algae888 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Due to the faster pace of the storm, I am now expecting heaviest snows to fall between 2am-8am with a changeover for coastal sections (and maybe a dry slot) around 10-11am

Guess I'll be waking up around 4 AM to check.

who's going to sleep tonight? have to be up when the first flakes start falling

I wanna be up for the heavy stuff.

my plan is to go to sleep when i'm in the dry slot or changeover.lol

by **aiannone** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:38 pm

All schools are 2hr delay for me so far. Looks like i will be going to school Sad

by **algae888** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:39 pm

cooladi wrote:Algae you need to save your strength for the bended knee dance on Friday. Congrats to you and your bride to be...

thanks and your right. i'm going to be dead tired by fri night.lol

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:39 pm

Mets2695 wrote:All schools are 2hr delay for me so far. Looks like i will be going to school

Once they wake up in the morning and see 4-6 inches of snow on the ground, they may change their mind.

by **docstox12** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:All schools are 2hr delay for me so far. Looks like i will be going to school

Once they wake up in the morning and see 4-6 inches of snow on the ground, they may change their mind.

I was just going to say that.this storm is ahead of schedule.

by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:42 pm

NO SCHOOL - WOOHOO!

Now for those educators and educates 9students) out there - the State of NJ is now looking tio implement a virtual school were if school is closed teachers will assign work in lieu of meeting so it is like the school is closed but you are still in school - working from home. My sons school is doing this tomorrow - they will not lose a school day. this is going to be something we see in the future. Sorry to be the bearer of this but just a heads up.

RIP - THE SNOW DAY!!

Mugs

by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:42 pm

Ahead of schedule maybe better no?

by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:43 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:43 pm

I want to say this before the 00z runs come out- someone on another board brought it up and is important.

There is a lot of convection (t-storms) in Florida and off the coast of NC. This could make the models screwy as they hone in on the wrong surface low. So if we see whacky solutions. Ignore it. GFS will probably continue looking like crap

by **aiannone** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:44 pm

amugs wrote:Ahead of schedule maybe better no?

Might mean an earlier changeover which would mean a 2hr delay would work. If we have a 2hr delay, busses start running at 8:15

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:47 pm

Yeah Frank, I was thinking about that too; convective feedbacks could run rampant tonight lol

by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:49 pm

Sorry kid keeping my fingers crossed that we get that easterly track and she closes off at the right latitude DelMarva area and then bombs out along that track - if that happens no delayed - OFF!!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:50 pm

Around here schools are still on as of now.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:52 pm

NAM running.

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