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February 18th Storm Discussion

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:07 pm

For my history weather buffs, does this winter remind you of 1993-1994? A lot of light to moderate events with a couple big ones mixed in. It seems like every 3-4 days we are tracking another storm.

Another northern stream driven storm coming out of Canada will track into our area and strengthen as it does so. This is looking like another light to moderate snow event. Nothing huge. Worth tracking for sure.


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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:25 pm

12z EURO was about 3-5 inches for this storm.

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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:27 pm

not me I am worn out like I have been in a 12 round fight might be a little older then most here! I didn't sleep at all last night in the 30 plus years following weather that was a crazy storm yesterday thunder lighting hail snow 23 inches later I am worn out but me being a snow winnie I might come back to life if this gets interesting.

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 14, 2014 2:01 pm

cmc also showing a nice hit with this storm. GFS seems to be losing it. much lighter than other guidance.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 2:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:For my history weather buffs, does this winter remind you of 1993-1994? A lot of light to moderate events with a couple big ones mixed in. It seems like every 3-4 days we are tracking another storm.

Another northern stream driven storm coming out of Canada will track into our area and strengthen as it does so. This is looking like another light to moderate snow event. Nothing huge. Worth tracking for sure.


That's what happened Frank. Bitterly cold spells in that winter just like this one.

We need about 23 inches here to reach the "king" of all years, 1995-1996.It's a long shot but still possible.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Feb 14, 2014 2:26 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:For my history weather buffs, does this winter remind you of 1993-1994? A lot of light to moderate events with a couple big ones mixed in. It seems like every 3-4 days we are tracking another storm.

Another northern stream driven storm coming out of Canada will track into our area and strengthen as it does so. This is looking like another light to moderate snow event. Nothing huge. Worth tracking for sure.


OMG I sure do remember, I had a 2 year old, and was pregnant with my second...my husband was out of the house from 7:30 am - about 7:00 pm and I was out there shoveling every week so he could get his car in the driveway (no street parking here). My neighbor kept yelling at me to be careful so I wouldn't hurt the baby....it seemed like it was always on a Wednesday too..

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:48 pm

Frank:

93/94 was the coldest winter in NYC since the winter of 77/78, and none have been colder since. This year and 93/94 were both very similar in totals for snowfall (so far at least), both like I said were well below normal temps, although 93/94 was colder than this winter, and both exceeded 50 inches of snow.

The 70's had very cold winters but below average snowfall during the decade, as the two often don't go hand in hand. Example the winter of 76/77 was even colder than 77/78 but had 27 less inches of snow.

Anyway yes 93/94 had a train of snowfall event after snowfall events. Nothing Roidzilla like and in NYC only one the whole winter over 10 inches, 12.8 to be exact on February 11, 1994, but many moderate events, and of course the MLK ice storm that Docstox and MUGS often reference.

95/96 was different not quite as cold, and bigger storms January 7, 1996 when NYC received over 2 feet, officially 20.2 in CPK need I say more, and 30-35 in Orange county, I believe Newark had 27. In HV we had that storm with 15-18 inches already on the ground. Still the deepest snowpack I've ever seen, but todays is pretty darn good too.

BTW - Orange county had 110 inches that year, Lake Mohonk in New Paltz 126, NYC 75.6 and Docstox in Mahwah 79.  I also remember Hillsdale NJ, I guess it was a trained spotter there, recorded 99 inches that year, they never could get that last inch.

I forgot to answer the question - Yes the winter does remind me in many ways of the winter of 93/94, that winter was brutal and cold right through the second week in April, this one still has to live up to that.

The winter of 95/96 NYC saw over 13 inches of snow in MArch that winter and 1 inch in April when a Noreaster pounded everyone north and west of the city with over a foot.

Both those winters 93/94 and 95/96 never seemed to want to end.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:15 pm; edited 4 times in total
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 4:01 pm

Excellent write up and agree and enjoyed it a lot.

That "trained spotter" in Hillsdale reporting 99 inches needed new glasses.There is no friggin' way Hillsdale got 20 more inches than me it's less than a few miles south of me.How can CP get 75, I get 79 and Hillsdale get 99. I measured each and every storm that year with care.

Hey, this guy in Hillsdale is my Central Park Zookeeper,LOL!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 14, 2014 4:04 pm

Wow, not even into to morrows storm and already another one?! Am I ever going to get any hoimework done lol Track here we go!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 14, 2014 4:10 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Excellent write up and agree and enjoyed it a lot.

That "trained spotter" in Hillsdale reporting 99 inches needed new glasses.There is no friggin' way Hillsdale got 20 more inches than me it's less than a few miles south of me.How can CP get 75, I get 79 and Hillsdale get 99. I measured each and every storm that year with care.

Hey, this guy in Hillsdale is my Central Park Zookeeper,LOL!

Doc:

He was the anti zookeeper, CP zookeeper was always low, this guy counter acted by always being high. With his measurements that is, I know nothing about his drug or alcohol intake.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 14, 2014 4:49 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Excellent write up and agree and enjoyed it a lot.

That "trained spotter" in Hillsdale reporting 99 inches needed new glasses.There is no friggin' way Hillsdale got 20 more inches than me it's less than a few miles south of me.How can CP get 75, I get 79 and Hillsdale get 99. I measured each and every storm that year with care.

Hey, this guy in Hillsdale is my Central Park Zookeeper,LOL!

It wasn't me guys I swear!!!LOL lol!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:09 pm

@amugs wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Excellent write up and agree and enjoyed it a lot.

That "trained spotter" in Hillsdale reporting 99 inches needed new glasses.There is no friggin' way Hillsdale got 20 more inches than me it's less than a few miles south of me.How can CP get 75, I get 79 and Hillsdale get 99. I measured each and every storm that year with care.

Hey, this guy in Hillsdale is my Central Park Zookeeper,LOL!

It wasn't me guys I swear!!!LOL lol!

Hey Mugs, I never thought of this but maybe Doc is the zookeeper. You know what they say keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

Doc knows I'm on to him (The zookeeper), so he makes like we're friends on this board. The proof is in his low Mahwah totals from 95/96 which he claims are accurate.

hmm, I'm onto you Doc.

JK
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:28 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Excellent write up and agree and enjoyed it a lot.

That "trained spotter" in Hillsdale reporting 99 inches needed new glasses.There is no friggin' way Hillsdale got 20 more inches than me it's less than a few miles south of me.How can CP get 75, I get 79 and Hillsdale get 99. I measured each and every storm that year with care.

Hey, this guy in Hillsdale is my Central Park Zookeeper,LOL!

Doc:

He was the anti zookeeper, CP zookeeper was always low, this guy counter acted by always being high. With his measurements that is, I know nothing about his drug or alcohol intake.

Yeah, if you put this Hillsdale guy and the Zookeeper together, there would be an explosion and just a fine cloud of dust.

Matter and anti-matter at their best!
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:31 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Excellent write up and agree and enjoyed it a lot.

That "trained spotter" in Hillsdale reporting 99 inches needed new glasses.There is no friggin' way Hillsdale got 20 more inches than me it's less than a few miles south of me.How can CP get 75, I get 79 and Hillsdale get 99. I measured each and every storm that year with care.

Hey, this guy in Hillsdale is my Central Park Zookeeper,LOL!

It wasn't me guys I swear!!!LOL lol!

Hey Mugs, I never thought of this but maybe Doc is the zookeeper. You know what they say keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

Doc knows I'm on to him (The zookeeper), so he makes like we're friends on this board. The proof is in his low Mahwah totals from 95/96 which he claims are accurate

hmm, I'm onto you Doc.

JK


What's that old heavby metal song...."Paranoia...self destroy-a"

I can see you CP in a rumpled overcoat,a glass eye,a half smoked cigar, wild hair and a note pad getting out of a beat up old heap and knocking on my door to investigate this matter. "Sir,Sir, just one more question!"

Now I've got to watch an old Colombo episode!


Last edited by docstox12 on Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:32 pm

@amugs wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Excellent write up and agree and enjoyed it a lot.

That "trained spotter" in Hillsdale reporting 99 inches needed new glasses.There is no friggin' way Hillsdale got 20 more inches than me it's less than a few miles south of me.How can CP get 75, I get 79 and Hillsdale get 99. I measured each and every storm that year with care.

Hey, this guy in Hillsdale is my Central Park Zookeeper,LOL!

It wasn't me guys I swear!!!LOL lol!

I'll ask Janet about this,LOL!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 14, 2014 6:05 pm

Was about to make a thread for this and then I saw it was already here, this event looks like another possible moderate snowfall, it is still fairly far off timewise and I'm going to wait until after the 15th storm passes to make any forecasts or seriously comment about it. CMC has a nice event.

ollaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 14, 2014 6:31 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Excellent write up and agree and enjoyed it a lot.

That "trained spotter" in Hillsdale reporting 99 inches needed new glasses.There is no friggin' way Hillsdale got 20 more inches than me it's less than a few miles south of me.How can CP get 75, I get 79 and Hillsdale get 99. I measured each and every storm that year with care.

Hey, this guy in Hillsdale is my Central Park Zookeeper,LOL!

Doc:

He was the anti zookeeper, CP zookeeper was always low, this guy counter acted by always being high. With his measurements that is, I know nothing about his drug or alcohol intake.

Yeah, if you put this Hillsdale guy and the Zookeeper together, there would be an explosion and just a fine cloud of dust.

Matter and anti-matter at their best!

Doc:

Hysterical!!  lol! 
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 14, 2014 6:34 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Excellent write up and agree and enjoyed it a lot.

That "trained spotter" in Hillsdale reporting 99 inches needed new glasses.There is no friggin' way Hillsdale got 20 more inches than me it's less than a few miles south of me.How can CP get 75, I get 79 and Hillsdale get 99. I measured each and every storm that year with care.

Hey, this guy in Hillsdale is my Central Park Zookeeper,LOL!

It wasn't me guys I swear!!!LOL lol!

Hey Mugs, I never thought of this but maybe Doc is the zookeeper. You know what they say keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

Doc knows I'm on to him (The zookeeper), so he makes like we're friends on this board. The proof is in his low Mahwah totals from 95/96 which he claims are accurate

hmm, I'm onto you Doc.

JK


What's that old heavby metal song...."Paranoia...self destroy-a"

I can see you CP in a rumpled overcoat,a glass eye,a half smoked cigar, wild hair and a note pad getting out of a beat up old heap and knocking on my door to investigate this matter. "Sir,Sir, just one more question!"

Now I've got to watch an old Colombo episode!

Excellent Doc:

And I believe that paranoia song was the kinks, I've been hearing it over and over again in my head since you mentioned it. Or is it not in my head but live?
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 14, 2014 6:40 pm

CMC
February 18th Storm Discussion 19202110
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:15 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought you couldn't get snowfall with southerly winds. Ice maybe but snow?

February 18th Storm Discussion Cmcmap10

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:26 pm

You can if the warm air isn't enough to erode the cold air. Since the warm air won't overcome the cold air until late in the day when most of the precip is over, the warm moist air going over the cold air will create precip in the form of snow.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 14, 2014 8:14 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought you couldn't get snowfall with southerly winds.  Ice maybe but snow?

February 18th Storm Discussion Cmcmap10

The LP is too weak to draw in strong enough mid-levels winds to erode the cold air. Look at the 850s, they're below freezing besides south of the M/D line. It's essentially clipper strength and with clippers it snows north, south, east, and west of the low haha. In other words, if you shift to a winds map you will see very weak flow into the center of circulation.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 14, 2014 8:17 pm

12z EURO

February 18th Storm Discussion Screen52

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Disorganized winds = no warm air invasion
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:46 am

CMC looking very nice. Shows a solid 12+ hours of moderate snow.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:00 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:CMC looking very nice. Shows a solid 12+ hours of moderate snow.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Looks good - stronger (?)- notice it explode out by M Vineyard - NE gets  it good/crushed once again

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