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February 18th Storm Discussion

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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:08 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:Local Mets are saying 3-5" here. Ah here we go again, breakout the snow removal equipment. Yee Ha ! With this snow I'll almost have a 3 foot snow pack on the ground, unfortunately it will be shrinking with the warmer temps this week. Sad

Snowman: do you keep accurate measurements this year? You'really the only one that consistently reports from Pennsylvania in your area that's why I ask

I'm sorry Cp I couldn't because I had rotator cuff surgery for a massive tear so I was unable to do much. Now that I'm back on my feet some what I'm able to keep measurements again. I will definitely keep track of it next year though. Sad
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:12 am

Mt. Holly slashed totals, back to reality haha

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:13 am

Bulls eye for NENJ - OH come on now!!

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 5 Post-23-0-94462800-1392649655

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:14 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:Local Mets are saying 3-5" here. Ah here we go again, breakout the snow removal equipment. Yee Ha ! With this snow I'll almost have a 3 foot snow pack on the ground, unfortunately it will be shrinking with the warmer temps this week. Sad

Snowman: do you keep accurate measurements this year? You'really the only one that consistently reports from Pennsylvania in your area that's why I ask

I'm sorry Cp I couldn't because I had rotator cuff surgery for a massive tear so I was unable to do much. Now that I'm back on my feet some what I'm able to keep measurements again. I will definitely keep track of it next year though. Sad

Shoulders are a bitch. Mines been hurting since summer. Went to Ortho in October they said slight tear it should heal on its own. It seems to be in my case but oh so slowly. Shoveling where my snowblower can't do the job isn't helping any.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:14 am

That is a good snow map. You can see how coastal NJ and south shore of LI are mainly rain with little, non-accumulating snow. Everyone else is game.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:15 am

@amugs wrote:Bulls eye for NENJ - OH come on now!!

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 5 Post-23-0-94462800-1392649655

Wow, saw the CMC but it didn't look like that much, .6"+ for me snow and it looks like .75" all snow in NENJ.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:17 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Mt. Holly slashed totals, back to reality haha

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php

Tom for our winter fatigued folks I hope this is accurate- if not there will be a lot of surprised folks and pissed off one's too!! Evil or Very Mad  Evil or Very Mad 


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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:19 am

@amugs wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Mt. Holly slashed totals, back to reality haha

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php

Tom for our winter fatigued folks I hope this is accurate- if not there will be a lot of surprised folks and pissed off one's too!! Evil or Very Mad  Evil or Very Mad 


The last GFS run had .25"+ in NNJ. Lets see if it trend this run. It's possible it's not handling it right due to small scale physics but let's see if there's a trend.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:20 am

Wow, saw the CMC but it didn't look like that much, .6"+ for me snow and it looks like .75" all snow in NENJ.

Tom I know that is why I am saying WTF - Mt Holly better get with the ballgame here IMO cause something is going to happen - just like in 93-94 if you recall with all of those SWFE and WAA events that turned in 4-6/5-8 snows when they called for 1-3 or even light snow/flurries. It just wants too SNOW!!!!!

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:23 am

This puppy is trending and if the GFS which is last to the party shows this then we are in business IMO. I still think we are in business but sometimes when we speak to soon - me included I am a man and can take it - it comes to bite us back two fold or more.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:24 am

@amugs wrote:Wow, saw the CMC but it didn't look like that much, .6"+ for me snow and it looks like .75" all snow in NENJ.

Tom I know that is why I am saying WTF - Mt Holly better get with the ballgame here IMO cause something is going to happen - just like in 93-94 if you recall with all of those SWFE  and WAA events that turned in 4-6/5-8 snows when they called for 1-3 or even light snow/flurries. It just wants too SNOW!!!!!

Yes, just because the last few busted doesn't mean every one will.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:25 am

Upton

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:26 am

RGEM (CMC), NAM and SREF's all up there QPF + snowfall amounts - THE TREND!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:26 am

RAP won't come into realistic range until 0z tonight.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:30 am

It's putting down warning level snow across southern WI and northern IL.

http://www.weather.gov/

Looks healthy on radar.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=default&animate=true
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:31 am

Good way to show precip types.

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=ne&model=nam&run=12&fhr=11&field=ptype
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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:33 am

temps will be a problem that's why I see 1inch if that for coastal people 2 or 3 for the I 95. the biggest will be north of I 84 3 to 6 with some higher amounts!

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:33 am

Tom, I think they'll wait until the GFS and Euro come out in a bit before they do any total adjustments or advisories. We have a couple models on board for the trend so we wait to see what the big boys show.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:34 am

Radar looks healthy right now

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:38 am

hmmm surface temps seem to be warming throughout the day tomorrow, not sure if we will stay cold enough for all snow...if we get more than 3" there will be snow rage and a revolt at my house....husband not happy with having to go to work in all this snow...kids tired of shoveling and cleaning off their cars....they are done!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:39 am

@amugs wrote:Mt Holly

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE DRIVES EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY (170M 12 HR HFC WITH
NEGATIVE TILT)...STRONG WAA WITH VERY GOOD SNOW GROWTH FOR SEVERAL
HOURS (-14C 600MB) IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD
SNOW ADVISORY I95 NORTHWARD INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND POTENTIAL
FOR A WARNING EVENT OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN SOME PLACES NEAR AND
NORTH OF I78. SUB FREEZING PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE
START

Very Aggressive - what are they seeing??

MUGS posted this Mt. Holly update yesterday at noon.

Apparently they were thinking this was possible at the time, now backed off. Most likely waiting for the 12z runs to see if their original thinking from yesterday verifies.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:42 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:God this winter is a roller coaster, woke up to the NAM showing .75" QPF, gonna check other models and come back with analysis, it never ends does it?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

A cardinal rule I use in my investment operations is "A primary trend is in effect until conclusively broken." Right now, this cold, snowy trend is in effect until Spring unless conclusively broken.Don't think the brief warmup is in that category especially with professional mets saying polar air returns early next week with still favorable atmospheric conditions for snow.

Still bullish for more snow through March at this juncture.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:42 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:hmmm surface temps seem to be warming throughout the day tomorrow, not sure if we will stay cold enough for all snow...if we get more than 3" there will be snow rage and a revolt at my house....husband not happy with having to go to work in all this snow...kids tired of shoveling and cleaning off their cars....they are done!

It's all about the records now Janet, I have enough snowpack now, it's actually ominous looking.

But I still love to see the stuff fall, I never get tired of that.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:44 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:hmmm surface temps seem to be warming throughout the day tomorrow, not sure if we will stay cold enough for all snow...if we get more than 3" there will be snow rage and a revolt at my house....husband not happy with having to go to work in all this snow...kids tired of shoveling and cleaning off their cars....they are done!

Janet,

"When the going gets tough...the tough get going!"

Remember there will be a 63 year old man (me) just north of you guys shoveling and cursing as well,LOL!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:55 am

12z GFS held it's ground, .25"-.35" QPF in northern half of NJ, and dunz, I am not concerned about mixing north of I-95 in New Jersey, precipitation looks to end in NJ before temps get too high to support snow, however in NY and further east in LI and NYC it may be a problem due to later start and end time.
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