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February 18th Storm Discussion

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:57 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:hmmm surface temps seem to be warming throughout the day tomorrow, not sure if we will stay cold enough for all snow...if we get more than 3" there will be snow rage and a revolt at my house....husband not happy with having to go to work in all this snow...kids tired of shoveling and cleaning off their cars....they are done!

As am I. Spring please. And Yankee baseball  Cool 

@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:God this winter is a roller coaster, woke up to the NAM showing .75" QPF, gonna check other models and come back with analysis, it never ends does it?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

A cardinal rule I use in my investment operations is "A primary trend is in effect until conclusively broken." Right now, this cold, snowy trend is in effect until Spring unless conclusively broken.Don't think the brief warmup is in that category especially with professional mets saying polar air returns early next week with still favorable atmospheric conditions for snow.

Still bullish for more snow through March at this juncture.

The "warmup" is going to feel like a summer day. But yes, cold air returns next week. And it could be brutal.

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:hmmm surface temps seem to be warming throughout the day tomorrow, not sure if we will stay cold enough for all snow...if we get more than 3" there will be snow rage and a revolt at my house....husband not happy with having to go to work in all this snow...kids tired of shoveling and cleaning off their cars....they are done!

It's all about the records now Janet, I have enough snowpack now, it's actually ominous looking.

But I still love to see the stuff fall, I never get tired of that.

I wanna see CPK break their record. If 3-6 inches falls tomorrow, they have a much better shot!

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:17 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:hmmm surface temps seem to be warming throughout the day tomorrow, not sure if we will stay cold enough for all snow...if we get more than 3" there will be snow rage and a revolt at my house....husband not happy with having to go to work in all this snow...kids tired of shoveling and cleaning off their cars....they are done!

As am I. Spring please. And Yankee baseball  Cool 

@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:God this winter is a roller coaster, woke up to the NAM showing .75" QPF, gonna check other models and come back with analysis, it never ends does it?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

A cardinal rule I use in my investment operations is "A primary trend is in effect until conclusively broken." Right now, this cold, snowy trend is in effect until Spring unless conclusively broken.Don't think the brief warmup is in that category especially with professional mets saying polar air returns early next week with still favorable atmospheric conditions for snow.

Still bullish for more snow through March at this juncture.

The "warmup" is going to feel like a summer day. But yes, cold air returns next week. And it could be brutal.

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:hmmm surface temps seem to be warming throughout the day tomorrow, not sure if we will stay cold enough for all snow...if we get more than 3" there will be snow rage and a revolt at my house....husband not happy with having to go to work in all this snow...kids tired of shoveling and cleaning off their cars....they are done!

It's all about the records now Janet, I have enough snowpack now, it's actually ominous looking.

But I still love to see the stuff fall, I never get tired of that.

I wanna see CPK break their record. If 3-6 inches falls tomorrow, they have a much better shot!


Ummm...LGM! I got Opening Day tix, March 31st...hope spring is here by then! It looks like the models are showing a SE wind tomorrow morning, any influence on temps? ....I hate where I am when temps are an issue, sometimes we are just north enough to be colder, sometimes not north enough....ugh

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:23 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:hmmm surface temps seem to be warming throughout the day tomorrow, not sure if we will stay cold enough for all snow...if we get more than 3" there will be snow rage and a revolt at my house....husband not happy with having to go to work in all this snow...kids tired of shoveling and cleaning off their cars....they are done!

As am I. Spring please. And Yankee baseball  Cool 

@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:God this winter is a roller coaster, woke up to the NAM showing .75" QPF, gonna check other models and come back with analysis, it never ends does it?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

A cardinal rule I use in my investment operations is "A primary trend is in effect until conclusively broken." Right now, this cold, snowy trend is in effect until Spring unless conclusively broken.Don't think the brief warmup is in that category especially with professional mets saying polar air returns early next week with still favorable atmospheric conditions for snow.

Still bullish for more snow through March at this juncture.

The "warmup" is going to feel like a summer day. But yes, cold air returns next week. And it could be brutal.

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:hmmm surface temps seem to be warming throughout the day tomorrow, not sure if we will stay cold enough for all snow...if we get more than 3" there will be snow rage and a revolt at my house....husband not happy with having to go to work in all this snow...kids tired of shoveling and cleaning off their cars....they are done!

It's all about the records now Janet, I have enough snowpack now, it's actually ominous looking.

But I still love to see the stuff fall, I never get tired of that.

I wanna see CPK break their record. If 3-6 inches falls tomorrow, they have a much better shot!


Ummm...LGM! I got Opening Day tix, March 31st...hope spring is here by then! It looks like the models are showing a SE wind tomorrow morning, any influence on temps? ....I hate where I am when temps are an issue, sometimes we are just north enough to be colder, sometimes not north enough....ugh

It's a realtively weak SE flow. However it is an issue at the coast, look at the 12z NAM, don't look at precip verbatim but look at the surface winds, calm over most of NJ but at the immediate coast 10-15kt winds out of the east-southeast, this is where I think temps will be a problem.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:37 am

ARW... LOL

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 Qq4o7m10
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:40 am

Does the jma own the jma?.

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Post by meeka312 Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:42 am

Baseball? Figures u guy would be hockey fans. Lol

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:46 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:ARW... LOL

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 Qq4o7m10

Wow!, That is just sick And granted, I know it's probably way over done, but this winter, I never place bets against any models showing ridiculous precipitation amounts, less than 24 hours before the event.

We have seen it time and time again this winter. The short-range models pick up on the stuff, the longer-range models aren't picking up on for a particular event. Even if that model half verifies were looking at warning level snow in some sections.

The other thing you have to factor in regarding the temperatures, especially right along the coast, most of the water off our coast around Montauk, Rhode Island, NY harbor, all the way down to Delaware is between 28 and 33°. If the wind is coming out of the East, that's not going to do to much to bring surface temperatures above freezing.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:03 pm

Bill Evans just brought his 3-6" line more south and east....I'm on the border again!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
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Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:18 pm

If someone can start an observations thread around 6pm tonight, that would be much appreciated. Snow is expected to move in around 5-7am tomorrow morning and last into the late morning / early afternoon hours. Here is a quick snow map I drew up on my Ipad so you can get an idea of my thoughts

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 Image

Areas north and west of NYC will obviously do well. NYC Metro itself is right on the boarder. Notice I put the "+" sign next to some of the amounts, as higher accumulations are possible in isolated areas.

A secondary low is going to develop off the coast tomorrow morning and deepen as it does so with strong H5 energy ejecting out of the Great Lakes region.

We'll see how this plays out tomorrow morning. Thread the needle once again!


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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:19 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:If someone can start an observations thread around 6pm tonight, that would be much appreciated. Snow is expected to move in around 5-7am tomorrow morning and last into the late morning / early afternoon hours. Here is a quick snow map I drew up on my Ipad so you can get an idea of my thoughts

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 Image

Areas north and west of NYC will obviously do well. NYC Metro itself is right on the boarder. Notice I put the "+" sign next to some of the amounts, as higher accumulations are possible in isolated areas.

A secondary low is going to develop off the coast tomorrow morning and deepen as it does so with strong H5 energy ejecting out of the Great Lakes region.

We'll see how this plays out tomorrow morning. Thread the needle once again!


Don't agree with the orientation of the lines, need to be more SW, to NE, not W to E, I've looked at the thermal profiles, don't really agree with C-2 in my area, will draw a map of my own.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:23 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:If someone can start an observations thread around 6pm tonight, that would be much appreciated. Snow is expected to move in around 5-7am tomorrow morning and last into the late morning / early afternoon hours. Here is a quick snow map I drew up on my Ipad so you can get an idea of my thoughts

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 Image

Areas north and west of NYC will obviously do well. NYC Metro itself is right on the boarder. Notice I put the "+" sign next to some of the amounts, as higher accumulations are possible in isolated areas.

A secondary low is going to develop off the coast tomorrow morning and deepen as it does so with strong H5 energy ejecting out of the Great Lakes region.

We'll see how this plays out tomorrow morning. Thread the needle once again!


Don't agree with the orientation of the lines, need to be more SW, to NE, not W to E, I've looked at the thermal profiles, don't really agree with C-2 in my area, will draw a map of my own.

Yea I should have done that with the blue line from the south shore of LI and extended is more southwest then west. You are correct. Everything else I feel is ok. Interior central NJ should be in 2-4+

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:26 pm

Nice job,Tom.

NWS still hanging with 2 to 4 for my area, but that jibes well with your 3 to 6.This one could put me over the 60 inch mark for the year.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:29 pm

Here is my interpretation.

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 2_18st10
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:39 pm

RAP at 5am, again, won't be in realistic range until after 0z tonight.

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 Rap_2513
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:50 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Here is my interpretation.

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 2_18st10

Oops, sorry,Tom, that map from the I Pad was Franks.

Now I see your's here and it still puts me in a possible 2 inch path, just enough to get me over 60 inches, what I consider epic in my neck of the woods.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 1:01 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Here is my interpretation.

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 2_18st10

Tom:

Could you modify that map you seem to use quite often a little further north? I value your forecasts and insights and you have me right on the Northern fringe of that map. It also cuts off several HV people on this forum that I'm aware of and probably a lot more that I'm not aware of.

I don't think we have any Maryland or Delaware people on this forum, so F those states. LOL.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 17, 2014 1:40 pm

Wow, I stopped for a day looking here as didn't think much of tomorrow as most things were trending like not much but seems overnight things have gone up, now 3-6+ in my area?! And that ARW, jeeze 15-17 inches, obviously over done but as stated earlier I am not going to completely discount any maps being what a winter we have had so far. 3-6 is plenty IMO, they just finished doing a major cleanup on th3w main roads here so time to fill it in again lol.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:03 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Here is my interpretation.

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 2_18st10

Tom:

Could you modify that map you seem to use quite often a little further north? I value your forecasts and insights and you have me right on the Northern fringe of that map. It also cuts off several HV people on this forum that I'm aware of and probably a lot more that I'm not aware of.

I don't think we have any Maryland or Delaware people on this forum, so F those states. LOL.

Sure, I will in the future, not going to do it with this particular map because it's just a generality, you would be in snow 2"+ lol. Later tonight we will be able to hone in on exact amnts and I will release a new map with a different graphic.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:06 pm

CP is this better? Map is supposed to be blank.

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 Trista10
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:09 pm

Tom:

Perfect.

Thanks
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:09 pm

EURO was about .40 qpf for NYC Metro tomorrow morning. Results in about 3-6 inches of snow. I think we are looking good for a minor snowfall event tomorrow morning, with a possible significant one north and west of the city. Adding to the snow pack before it warms up (then gets really cold again next week, will blog about that tomorrow).

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:10 pm

Downstream our storm looks rather robust.

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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:24 pm

from mt holly. SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...

1048 AM NOTE: WE ARE AWARE OF THE ROBUST 12Z/17 NAM AND RGEM
MODELS AND THE LESSER BUT STILL MORE ROBUST 12Z GFS WHEN COMPARED
TO THE 06Z VSN...ALL THIS FOR THE NJT AND I95 REGION TUESDAY
MORNING AND EVALUATING TOGETHER WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
THE NCEP. NO CHANGES IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

I think we will see higher accu snow map this evening from nws. most models show more qpf and latest srefs maintains this. probably looking like 4-6 inches n/w of nyc. the question mark is nyc s/e with warmer surface temps and a possible change to rain. I think most of precip will fall between 4am and noon with ground cold snow should accu immediately. we need it to snow early hopefully there is no delay unless you're tired of shoveling.lol
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:27 pm

Just got in from errands - oh boy Euro comes in with a wetter trend and has bumped up the qpf from yesterdays run - almost the same as it did Thurs.

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 6 View.php?pic=2celwzd&s=8#

3-6" a lock for NNJ as Frank said 6" + IMO and the HV score on this one -DOC , ZOOand CP get the shovels and snowblowers ready once again




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Post by pdubz Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:37 pm

North shore better stay cold like in previous storms!
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