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February 18th Storm Discussion

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Post by Sparky Sparticles Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:37 pm

Just looked at the NWS forecast for Tuesday:
A chance of snow before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 15, 2014 2:41 pm

EURO QPF, looks overdone to me but we'll see. Still a ways away.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:52 pm

Tom does this storm look to be cold all the way to coast or marginal
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:00 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Tom does this storm look to be cold all the way to coast or marginal

Depends on the model, EURO is the coldest with 850s below freezing well south of the area. Even on the EURO the surface temps are 35 due to yet again another daytime event. NAM is similar with 35 and 32 line hanging up near rt-80. Doesn't mean it can't snow but it means it needs to snow that much harder to overcome surface and stick, ratios will be below 10:1 with this setup south of the 32 degree line which as of now looks to hang up in NWNJ during a majority of the event. IMO the .5-.75 QPF the EURO showed would translate to 3-5". Again, EURO is the wettest thus far. Still plenty of time just my analysis for now. So in short, yes, surface temps are marginal at the coast and depending on what model you use, 850s are too. Too early to nail down where it's going to be at this time.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:03 pm

Thanks tom
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:31 pm

This event looks much better than today's. Less of a thread the needle. It will snow. Just a matter of how much. Right now thinking widespread 3-6/4-8 inch type snows for the area. Will update again around 2am when I get home from wedding.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 15, 2014 5:39 pm

@ Frank - be careful coming home kid

The JMA - LOL 1" QPF = 12"+ snowstorm

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 2 CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_96HR

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 15, 2014 5:41 pm

@amugs wrote:@ Frank - be careful coming home kid

The JMA - LOL 1" QPF = 12"+ snowstorm

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 2 CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_96HR

Meanwhile GFS says 1-3" type event, still a long ways to go on this one, like Frank said, there's a very good chance it will snow, we just need to see which way QPF trends.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:26 pm

Not trying to get too far ahead, but it looks like there is a very large signal for late next weekend/early the following week. Might be the next thing to follow in this winter that keeps on giving ahaha

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:30 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Not trying to get too far ahead, but it looks like there is a very large signal for late next weekend/early the following week. Might be the next thing to follow in this winter that keeps on giving ahaha

GFS and EURO both have cutters but the EURO is more progressive, instead of a GLC it's an Apps Runner.
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Post by cooladi Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:27 pm

I ordered a case of Safe Paw ice melt on Feb. 6 that still hasn't arrived. Delivery has been delayed by bad weather. How ironic... I used my last container on Feb. 13 and wish I had it here for this storm. At least it sounds like I will get some use out of it this Winter, if it ever gets here.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:55 pm

Dang that map shows 12-15 inches for me, sheesh we going to break records this year at this rate.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Dang that map shows 12-15 inches for me, sheesh we going to break records this year at this rate.

Please, please do not take the JMA verbatim 3 days out of the event. SREF mean is around .4 which is much more plausible. Do not expect 1" QPF from this, a little system diving down from Canada that moves relatively quickly won't be capable of that IMHO. General forecast for QPF if I had to make one would be .25-.5"
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Post by Sharon L Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:14 pm

Can someone be kind enough to let me know if this bad boy will reach central NJ (Princeton area) At this rate our spring break is getting away from us mighty quick! Can't recall the last time I saw a full paycheck! Smile Lots of snow days used here.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:25 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Dang that map shows 12-15 inches for me, sheesh we going to break records this year at this rate.

Please, please do not take the JMA verbatim 3 days out of the event. SREF mean is around .4 which is much more plausible. Do not expect 1" QPF from this, a little system diving down from Canada that moves relatively quickly won't be capable of that IMHO. General forecast for QPF if I had to make one would be .25-.5"

I'm with you Tom, probably about .25" and it is a pretty progressive flow...should move through pretty fast...

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 15, 2014 10:26 pm

I never expect with the wx nj, I was just stating what I saw on the map.  You just can never tell with all these systems but your probably right that it will be much lower.  Thanks for the info and I guess all we can do is wait and see right : )
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 16, 2014 12:24 am

Mt Holly

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE DRIVES EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY (170M 12 HR HFC WITH
NEGATIVE TILT)...STRONG WAA WITH VERY GOOD SNOW GROWTH FOR SEVERAL
HOURS (-14C 600MB) IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD
SNOW ADVISORY I95 NORTHWARD INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND POTENTIAL
FOR A WARNING EVENT OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN SOME PLACES NEAR AND
NORTH OF I78. SUB FREEZING PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE
START

Very Aggressive - what are they seeing??

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 16, 2014 12:33 am

I don't know Mugs, but what a pattern this is. Wish we could preserve it for every winter.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 16, 2014 1:20 am

@Sharon L wrote:Can someone be kind enough to let me know if this bad boy will reach central NJ (Princeton area)  At this rate our spring break is getting away from us mighty quick!  Can't recall the last time I saw a full paycheck! Smile Lots of snow days used here.

Sharon

Sharon, yes it will.

Models kinda trended drier with the qpf tonight. Euro still showing a solid 3-6 though for NYC. At this point, mine as we'll see what guidance says tomorrow. This won't effect Monday. Looks more like am early Tuesday morning deal. It seems like the storm on Thursday shifted the baroclinic zone further south, resulting in storm tracks to our south. That's why todays storm was pretty un significant, also due to the kicker in the Midwest.

The Tuesday storm has a baroclinic zone further north. That's why I think it could be better. But we'll see.

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Post by Sparky Sparticles Sun Feb 16, 2014 7:06 am

@Sharon L wrote: Can't recall the last time I saw a full paycheck! Smile Lots of snow days used here.

My husband got lucky. For the past few months they've been giving laptops to the workers who were approved y their supervisors to work from home. Then after a power failure that lasted a few days they decided what the heck, give *everyone* a laptop, but it was taking months for them all to come in and get ready. Tuesday afternoon my husband and one co-worker got theirs. They went into work Wednesday and spent the day with the IT people trying to get everything to work right, and they were so happy when they woke up Thursday and saw snow on the ground and knew they never had to take another snow day ever again. Up to then, I think my husband already took 6 of them, because even though PATH trains were running, the light rail train he took to get to the PATH station wasn't.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 16, 2014 11:19 am

Looks like the models are drying this bad boy now a weak boy up as it comes west. The confluence to our north eats it up and as it dies it tries to pop a coastal off NJ nothing major but looks like a 2-4 event but I am not hopping on this one.  Pattern doesn't look all that good. Well see what 12Z shows  - the unreliable jma is still showing 1" QPF - LOL - I have to say if this verifies I will not watch another model for the rest of winter - well then again who am I kidding!

Looks like .25" NYC and east LI at .32" - there's a shock this winter!!
Temps seem to be hovering at the 32-33* mark at the city.

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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 16, 2014 11:25 am

@amugs wrote:Looks like the models are drying this bad boy now a weak boy up as it comes west. The confluence to our north eats it up and as it dies it tries to pop a coastal off NJ nothing major but looks like a 2-4 event but I am not hopping on this one.  Pattern doesn't look all that good. Well see what 12Z shows  - the unreliable jma is still showing 1" QPF - LOL - I have to say if this verifies I will not watch another model for the rest of winter - well then again who am I kidding!

Looks like .25" NYC and east LI at .32" - there's a shock this winter!!
Temps seem to be hovering at the 32-33* mark at the city.
Yeah Mugs, looks to be a 1-3, 2-4 inch type event with marginal temperatures again. And its falling during the day which some areas mostly close to the coast might have trouble accumulating above freezing now with the sun angle.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 11:29 am

Models coming in drier today. GFS, NAM, CMC and EURO all came in less amplified and drier than yesterdays runs. They've also trended further north with the LP, not a good trend.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 1:49 pm

EURO is drier yet again from 0z which was drier from 12z yesterday. Doesn't look good.
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:01 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO is drier yet again from 0z which was drier from 12z yesterday. Doesn't look good.
Still spits out around .15-.25 of QPF for people. Enough for still a 1-3 2-4 type deal.

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