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February 18th Storm Discussion

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:13 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO is drier yet again from 0z which was drier from 12z yesterday. Doesn't look good.
Still spits out around .15-.25 of QPF for people. Enough for still a 1-3 2-4 type deal.

From Accuwx forums for NYC. Trended from .62" QPF yesterday 12z to .42" QPF last night 0z to .21" QPF today 12z. This trend continues we'll be dealing with a whole lot of nothing.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:24 pm

Yeah this thing certainly has been looking like its petering out on the models. Still a little time to trend back to slightly higher QPF. Def the lower the QPF the harder it will be to accumulate at the coast. This is just a quick rough guess based on the last 36hr model trends. May need to shift the southern portion of the 1-3" line up to the Ct coast instead of the N S of LI if the same trends persist.

[img]February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 3 Feb_1810[/img]




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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:27 pm

Nice Map Scott. One thing im starting to worry about is anyone south of NYC not seeing any accumulations due to temps and the sun angle. I think we might see the weak precip rates not overcome the temps and we will see "white rain" with the snow melting on contact.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:31 pm

@Quietace wrote:Nice Map Scott. One thing im starting to worry about is anyone south of NYC not seeing any accumulations due to temps and the sun angle. I think we might see the weak precip rates not overcome the temps and we will see "white rain" with the snow melting on contact.

You said it. In that scenario maybe a few spots getting a quick burst of a heavier band getting light accum (<1") but as long as the QPF remains light going to need the timing of that light precip to either fall early or late, before 11am-12pm or after 4-5pm other wise like you said..white rain.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:34 pm

Scott and Ace this thing has no legs - white rain at the coast and some accum nland and I am thinking the low end 2" - the winter wet trend is not with this storm but the total opposite of what we have seen this winter - not a problem though. Like I said before not hopping up and down Confluence and a slightly northern track eating it up - can't have them all now so I will sacrifice this one for the end of Feb/early March in my book.

Watch tonight's run show the 3-6" again and we all go WTF?? That has been the trend but my confidence is low on this. Just throwing it out there cause the models have been wacky all winter - right.


Last edited by amugs on Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:37 pm

Yeah mugs...I can take a pass on this one too...I have a Library Robotics program scheduled for Tues @ 2 since the kids are off..I would hate to have to cancel....

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:39 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Yeah mugs...I can take a pass on this one too...I have a Library Robotics program scheduled for Tues @ 2 since the kids are off..I would hate to have to cancel....

Oh wow that is awesome! I started the robotics program at Highlands back in 2008 and turned it over two years ago when it started to take over too much of my life. Good luck with it Zoo and hopefully Mother Nature cooperates.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:24 pm

Scott agree as of now, I think it's a bit early to make a map at least me personally, I will wait for some time tomorrow, as of now it's trending drier, could it go the other way? Possibly but it hasn't been good at all today.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:39 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Scott agree as of now, I think it's a bit early to make a map at least me personally, I will wait for some time tomorrow, as of now it's trending drier, could it go the other way? Possibly but it hasn't been good at all today.
It's funny the way this winter has gone the final soln in most cases hasn't been completely known until less than 24 hrs from an event. This is less than 36-48 hrs out and your saying its a little early to make a map.  That's seems crazy to me. Not that you said that but that you are probably right. In years past a preliminary map 3-4 days out was not unheard of, but this year that's seems to be when the start of major trends.  I don't know for me personally I think the general idea is pretty clear here though. Ie not a huge event.  Maybe a tick back up with as much as 6 or so inches in some areas in NW NJ and the HV but honestly south and east of 95 are going to have a tough time with this one due to surface temp and the timing with the daytime hrs esp if the QPF is light.  If the LP can trend back further south, and/or a little wetter wet bulbing may overcome the marginal surface temps.  Just like this past system I suppose. 

 I kind of agree with Mugs in that the legs of this thing are seemingly getting chopped out from underneath us here. One thing I am looking at, but still learning about is how to interpret the vertical velocities that look to be pretty strong as the s/w approaches in some areas. We shall see how tonight's 00z and tomorrow's 12z go.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:52 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Scott agree as of now, I think it's a bit early to make a map at least me personally, I will wait for some time tomorrow, as of now it's trending drier, could it go the other way? Possibly but it hasn't been good at all today.
It's funny the way this winter has gone the final soln in most cases hasn't been completely known until less than 24 hrs from an event. This is less than 36-48 hrs out and your saying its a little early to make a map.  That's seems crazy to me. Not that you said that but that you are probably right. In years past a preliminary map 3-4 days out was not unheard of, but this year that's seems to be when the start of major trends.  I don't know for me personally I think the general idea is pretty clear here though. Ie not a huge event.  Maybe a tick back up with as much as 6 or so inches in some areas in NW NJ and the HV but honestly south and east of 95 are going to have a tough time with this one due to surface temp and the timing with the daytime hrs esp if the QPF is light.  If the LP can trend back further south, and/or a little wetter wet bulbing may overcome the marginal surface temps.  Just like this past system I suppose. 

 I kind of agree with Mugs in that the legs of this thing are seemingly getting chopped out from underneath us here. One thing I am looking at, but still learning about is how to interpret the vertical velocities that look to be pretty strong as the s/w approaches in some areas. We shall see how tonight's 00z and tomorrow's 12z go.

This year models have had a hard time, I haven't felt comfortable making a map this winter until 24 hours out and look, the last storm busted horribly, models were showing .2-.4" QPF in most of NJ AS THE EVENT WAS ONGOING yet it was clear due to radar trends this wasn't going to happen. Most of NJ got less than an inch to 2 inches, very small areas got more. Forecasts have been a nightmare this year due to little model agreement and shifting trends right into as the storm is happening.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:56 pm

NAM shows T-1.5" in the area at best.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html
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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 16, 2014 6:35 pm

18Z GFS came in a little wetter I believe although I don't have exact QPF amounts. It still looks to be a 2-3, maybe 4 inch event in the Hudson valley. Most of the precip looks to fall just before dawn and in the morning so it should stick here. NWS Albany is calling for a widespread 3-6 inch event in their forecast area.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 6:53 pm

@hyde345 wrote:18Z GFS came in a little wetter I believe although I don't have exact QPF amounts. It still looks to be a 2-3, maybe 4 inch event in the Hudson valley. Most of the precip looks to fall just before dawn and in the morning so it should stick here. NWS Albany is calling for a widespread 3-6 inch event in their forecast area.

.15-.25" starts in morning and ends in afternoon. 1-2" event near 95 closer to 2-3" further north where ratios are better. Would like to see a trend to yesterdays EURO/CMC where there were widespread .5-.6" QPF amounts, HPC went with .25-.5" but it seems as though since that update models have trended drier.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 16, 2014 7:51 pm

Not looking all that impressive

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 7:58 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Not looking all that impressive

Weak precip like that would put down T-1" around here at best. Further north it would stick easier but not around here with that ever increasing sun angle and bad surface temps. I'm hoping we see it trend back in the right direction. I just like having something substantial to track.
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Post by pdubz Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:04 pm

great.. and winter finally slows down  No 
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:08 pm

Winter is not going anywhere. It will take a break this week. It will return next week.

As for this storm, the energy coming across the mid section of the country is lacking fuel. The atmosphere is depleted and need the warmup this week to spice it back up. This was looking like a nice event- perhaps models trend stronger again- but right now I would not say more than 1-3 inches, isolated 4 inch spots.

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Post by pdubz Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:10 pm

how many inches off the snowpack do you think will lose?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:18 pm

@pdubz wrote:how many inches off the snowpack do you think will lose?

Probably not as much as you would expect. Obviously I do not know the answer to that, but a lot of it is rock solid encased in ice.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:24 pm

@pdubz wrote:how many inches off the snowpack do you think will lose?
Get two or three yard sticks and stick them in various spots in your yard and record the depth of each one. Then this time next week report back how much snow pack is lost. I would actually like to know and think I may do it myself.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:39 pm

Was just looking over data and feel temps could be an issue on long island by late Tuesday morning. Including coastal NJ. NYC on the fringe. C-2 inches for those areas, 1-3 elsewhere, more north and west

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:47 pm

SREF continues to be juicy, still somewhat in it's BS range. Will take it more seriously if it holds through tomorrow.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:00 am

NWS has me for 2 to 4 as of this morning.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:13 am

Maybe an isolated spot up in NW NJ could also see 4-6" as well

[img]February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 3 2nd_ca10[/img]

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:25 am

Local Mets are saying 3-5" here. Ah here we go again, breakout the snow removal equipment. Yee Ha ! With this snow I'll almost have a 3 foot snow pack on the ground, unfortunately it will be shrinking with the warmer temps this week. Sad
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