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February 18th Storm Discussion

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:30 am

Just read an Accuweather report that after the brief warmup, arctic air will be returning early next week and a cold March is their long range prediction.
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Post by Radz Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:40 am

@docstox12 wrote:Just read an Accuweather report that after the brief warmup, arctic air will be returning early next week and a cold March is their long range prediction.

Just watched DT's video... nice reload to be unleashed Feb 24th-March 7th great pattern and storm potential if it verifies
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:06 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:Local Mets are saying 3-5" here. Ah here we go again, breakout the snow removal equipment. Yee Ha ! With this snow I'll almost have a 3 foot snow pack on the ground, unfortunately it will be shrinking with the warmer temps this week. Sad

Snowman: do you keep accurate measurements this year? You'really the only one that consistently reports from Pennsylvania in your area that's why I ask
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Post by Sferra01 Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:25 am

Bill Evans said 1-3 for LI, however the NBC station had the North Shore in a 3-5 range....that was 5:30am forecast.....

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:29 am

@docstox12 wrote:Just read an Accuweather report that after the brief warmup, arctic air will be returning early next week and a cold March is their long range prediction.
JB's video as well as Steve Dimartinos long range videos say the same thing. Strong support from the Stratosphereic warming event that has taken place. More importantly the position of it. That combined with a favorable MJO in phases 1, 7, and 8 as we go along. The long range MJO can be very inconsistent but the strat warming that has already taken place will show its influence in 10-14 days. Re load is the word of the winter. Strong LP over the Aleutians aiding in our ever consistent -EPO which leads to strong ridge in the west which leads to trough in the east just like most of the winter. Ridge in the west spills the arctic air into the eastern 1/3 of the  cONUS as it's done all winter. Wth the trough in the east storm chances continue. With the sun angle increasing with each day the thermal gradient at or along the coast will become that much stronger leading to the potential for some real historic storms...again the potential.  Steve D also pointed out an UPper level disturbance in the PAC sub tropics that will continue to spin off pieces of energy along the active sub trop jet in this time period.  With an active STJ and arctic disturbance diving in from the north on the steep ridge coupled with a strong thermal gradient along the coast leads to all this potential.  The system that will move through in about 6-7 days looks like the system that will reset this pattern. 

Of course with all this said it is all in the 7-10 day and beyond time frame so things will waffle on the models.  This up coming week will be a nice break before we hit winters home stretch and the final sprint towards spring. I jst hope it doesn't completely obliterate the snow pack. As long as we all keep some snow pack alive that should help somewhat when the pattern reloads.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:00 am

Doc,there is over 25 inches of rock solid snow pack up here.I would guess 1/3 to 1/2 will remain up here with nearly 5 degree colder temps than the NYC area.It's a lot harder for the sun or rain to melt this concrete as I have noted in past winter.Another 10 inch storm in March would restore the snowpack.

When I had a vegetable garden for many years, there were some years I would be planting early crops on St Patrick's day.Those were years when mild, dry weather returned and stayed late Feb into March.This year would definitely not be one of those.'93-'94 and '95-'96 I had snow in the backyard through the first week of April!
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:31 am

Guys just looked at the NAM and WTF??? I know it is the NAM but Jesus come on it verifies - advisory and warning level snows - not hyping it here just posting data - I'll put up some maps in a minute.  Anyone else seeing this ?frank looking at easy 3-6" for NNJ
February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 4 View.php?pic=23vauf4&s=8# It is trending stronger by this again

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Post by WeatherBob Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:32 am

Look at the NAM. a surprise 6 to 8 in if it verifies for NYC metro. Heavy wet snow, surface temps around 32.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:35 am

The liquid content of the snowpack is the biggest thing, and how long it's been around and freezes and refreezes definitely make those types of snowpacks much more resilient to melting than a fresh powdery low liquid content 25 inch snowfall.

I've noticed the same thing through years of observation Doc.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:36 am

@WeatherBob wrote:Look at the NAM. a surprise 6 to 8 in if it verifies for NYC metro.  Heavy wet snow, surface temps around 32.
WB,  I know just did a check and again holy smokes!! What do you think temp marginal it seems issues for city and LI but NNJ looks to get whacked on this run and it is in its range for the NAM.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:41 am

@amugs wrote:Guys just looked at the NAM and WTF??? I know it is the NAM but Jesus come on it verifies - advisory and warning level snows - not hyping it here just posting data - I'll put up some maps in a minute.  Anyone else seeing this ?frank looking at easy 3-6" for NNJ
February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 4 View.php?pic=23vauf4&s=8# It is trending stronger by this again

Noticed the same MUGs, since last night it keeps getting wetter, same old pattern verifying again as the storms from the north and west approach.

There are 3-4 hours of some pretty intense bands on that run over NNJ and LHV and NYC and LI. Temperature and timing will be critical. I would think they at least warrant a WWA if not WSW in a few areas.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:45 am

Of course... Lol I couldn't have waited a little longer to put up a map. Ill be at a place where I won't be able to check models until after 5-6 ish today. Still think temps will be marginal at the coast but as was stated earlier if a heavy enough precip hits the coast esp before 11 am is it could def cool the column down to the surface with evaporative cooling. Might have to make a final map for my final map later.  I think the ARW was showing 0.75-1" QPF on its latest run this morning.


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:46 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by WeatherBob Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:45 am

I think the cold air aloft at 850 will compensate for any surface warming. So I don't think surface temps would be an issue for all snow.
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Post by Dtone Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:49 am

This month is currently the 3rd snowiest Feb on record in CPK. (27.3")
Would it be safe to assume by tomorrow Feb 2014 will be up to number 2 (27.9") ?

That may also put us in the top 5 snowiest months overall (not just Feb)

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:51 am

12z NAM goes pretty crazy for tonight into tomorrow. 3-6 inches for inland areas west and north of NYC. LI and NYC remain C-2 inches or so due to temps. There is going to be a strong gradient I think. NEPA, NW NJ and HV will do best. NE NJ is on the fringe.

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:51 am

@sroc4 wrote:Of course... Lol I couldn't have waited a little longer to put up a map. Ill be at a place where I won't be able to check models until after 5-6 ish today. Still think temps will be marginal at the coast but as was stated earlier if a heavy enough precip hits the coast esp before 11 am is it could def cool the column down to the surface with evaporative cooling. Might have to make a final map for my final map later.  I think the ARW was showing 0.75-1" QPF on its latest run this morning.


And we laughed at the JMA -I know not the most reliable but Scott like I said in yesterdays post after my feelings like this had no legs that WHAT IF and the models always bring  these storm back in the 24 hours kill zone- ALL WINTER LONG!!  Looks like it again.

Temps marginal at coast, LI and city but with heavy banding that can be overcome - Jesus here we go!!

CP, Doc, Zoo - no friggin rest for the weary it seems - Mother of God have mercy - Old Man winter says..............NO WAY!!
$K NAM Crushes us up here

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 4 Sfxk7o


Last edited by amugs on Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:01 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:59 am

@Dtone wrote:This month is currently the 3rd snowiest Feb on record in CPK. (27.3")
Would it be safe to assume by tomorrow Feb 2014 will be up to number 2 (27.9") ?

That may also put us in the top 5 snowiest months overall (not just Feb)

We can hope.

The february and monthly record of 36.9 which we set just 4 years ago could also get within reach, at least with 3 or 4 in the city tomorrow. Might make it attainable if we could get an end of month storm on top of it.

One at a time though, I'm getting way ahead of myself.
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:00 am

@docstox12 wrote:Just read an Accuweather report that after the brief warmup, arctic air will be returning early next week and a cold March is their long range prediction.

The Mets out at Penn State said the same thing on Friday night. All I can say is woohoo Doc !
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:01 am

God this winter is a roller coaster, woke up to the NAM showing .75" QPF, gonna check other models and come back with analysis, it never ends does it?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html


Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:01 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:01 am

@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Of course... Lol I couldn't have waited a little longer to put up a map. Ill be at a place where I won't be able to check models until after 5-6 ish today. Still think temps will be marginal at the coast but as was stated earlier if a heavy enough precip hits the coast esp before 11 am is it could def cool the column down to the surface with evaporative cooling. Might have to make a final map for my final map later.  I think the ARW was showing 0.75-1" QPF on its latest run this morning.


And we laughed at the JMA -I know not the most reliable but Scott like I said in yesterdays post after my feelings like this had no legs that WHAT IF and the models always bring  these storm back in the 24 hours kill zone- ALL WINTER LONG!!  Looks like it again.

Temps marginal at coast, LI and city but with heavy banding that can be overcome - Jesus here we go!!

CP, Doc, Zoo - no friggin rest for the weary it seems - Mother of God have mercy - Old Man winter says..............NO WAY!!
$K NAM Crushes us up here

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 4 Sfxk7o

Another snow day for my wife? She's already over their allotment by 2, Only alloted 5 this year, not smart. There goes Easter break.
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Post by mako460 Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:01 am

Anybody have a start time for this?

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:03 am

@mako460 wrote:Anybody have a start time for this?

Looks to be tonight I think around 2-3 AM - anyone else?

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Post by mako460 Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:04 am

Thanks Mugs, looks like i will be going to work overnight.....again, gotta love it!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:04 am

@mako460 wrote:Anybody have a start time for this?

6-7am

Do not let the NAM confuse you. 700mb VV's are not impressive and a lot of this turns to rain mid to late morning in the city, LI, central and coastal NJ. The secondary developed sooner on the NAM and H7 exploded, which is why qpf went high.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:08 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@mako460 wrote:Anybody have a start time for this?

6-7am

Do not let the NAM confuse you. 700mb VV's are not impressive and a lot of this turns to rain mid to late morning in the city, LI, central and coastal NJ. The secondary developed sooner on the NAM and H7 exploded, which is why qpf went high.

I would say coastal CNJ turns to rain, out by me temps support snow, right around 32. I am dubious to buy this amount of QPF, need to go over other models.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html
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