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2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:44 pm

2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map 1743709_688689581182804_1293387950_n

Snow map for tomorrow. In sum, I think the trough goes negative a little too late due to the potent kicker right behind this system. Temperatures will also be an issue for some around the DC-Philly area into SNJ at first, but should quickly transition to snow. If there was more spacing between the trough and the kicker, this could have been a much bigger storm for many. But that is just how I am seeing things. Stranger things have happened and I could be wrong. Earlier phasing and a trough going negative would result in higher snow amounts, especially west.

Timing:

Start time: 5-7am

Heaviest snow: 4-8pm

End time: 9-10pm


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:48 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:46 pm

5-7am? NWS says i don't start till after noon
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:47 pm

Looks very good Frank, I would make the 1-3" zone a 2-4" because GFS/NAM show potential for 4" amounts in areas. Other than that I like this call, too late for most of the area.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:48 pm

Latest GFS at 7am has snow moving in to western NJ. Maybe it is more like 10-11am for you Alex

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:48 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map 1743709_688689581182804_1293387950_n

Snow map for tomorrow. In sum, I think the trough goes negative a little too late due to the potent kicker right behind this system. Temperatures will also be an issue for some around the DC-Philly area into SNJ at first, but should quickly transition to snow. If there was more spacing between the trough and the kicker, this could have been a much bigger storm for many. But that is just how I am seeing things. Stranger things have happened and I could be wrong. Earlier phasing and a trough going negative would result in higher snow amounts, especially west.

Timing:

Start time: 5-7am

Heaviest snow: 4-8pm

End time: 9-10pm



Thanks, Frank.

Puts me in the 3 to 6 zone. Definitely a bump up from NWS 1 to 3.

Atre things trending west and wetter in your opinion?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:50 pm

Isolated 4-inch amounts are possible in the 1-3 zone. Generally, I see 2-3 inch amounts, not 3-4, in that zone, so I went with 1-3.

@Doc- The blue was the toughest area. If the storm follows a GFS track, we should manage at least 3 inches. Looking at the upper levels today, I think it comes in a little west and with the strength of the low I think good banding could develop.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:51 pm

ill take 3 to 6 all day.
I really mean Ill take six all day

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:53 pm

OK, Frank, thanks for the analysis.

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:53 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map 1743709_688689581182804_1293387950_n

Snow map for tomorrow. In sum, I think the trough goes negative a little too late due to the potent kicker right behind this system. Temperatures will also be an issue for some around the DC-Philly area into SNJ at first, but should quickly transition to snow. If there was more spacing between the trough and the kicker, this could have been a much bigger storm for many. But that is just how I am seeing things. Stranger things have happened and I could be wrong. Earlier phasing and a trough going negative would result in higher snow amounts, especially west.

Timing:

Start time: 5-7am

Heaviest snow: 4-8pm

End time: 9-10pm

Doc you know what this means for you. More of you favorite drink tomorrow night to dull your back pain from shoveling. Lol



Thanks, Frank.

Puts me in the 3 to 6 zone. Definitely a bump up from NWS 1 to 3.

Atre things trending west and wetter in your opinion?
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Post by oldtimer Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:55 pm

Frank You don't see the twin forks leading the pack too often

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Post by yorkseer Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:56 pm

I happen to be in the Amagansett, LI area this weekend. Hard to believe that I may have hit the jackpot. My wife wants to head back to the City - fat chance. Yeah, I know its Valentines Day but after all whats more important? Very Happy 

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:57 pm

Nofo will get blasted with this one!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:58 pm

My map.

2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map 2_15ma10
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:59 pm

@yorkseer wrote:I happen to be in the Amagansett, LI area this weekend. Hard to believe that I may have hit the jackpot. My wife wants to head back to the City - fat chance. Yeah, I know its Valentines Day but after all whats more important? Very Happy 

LOL, wow, you're on dangerous ground with that Valentine's Day statement.Watch out or it's the doghouse!

And enjoy the big snow coming your way.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:00 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:My map.

2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map 2_15ma10

OK, thanks,Tom.

I'm gonna average yours and Franks for my area and figure on about 4 if it pans out.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:02 pm

U have me in 4-6" tom. Ill take it!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:03 pm

Repost because it was at the bottom of last page. My map.

2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map 2_15ma12
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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:09 pm

not bad Tom. You and frank seem consistent with each other give or take an inch

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:10 pm

Watching Channel 2 in NY. He's saying 4-6 for my area. Hugh ? He's going to show snow fall totals if storm should wobble 88 miles. This should be interesting. Next thing you know he'll have his sleeves rolled up again. Lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:12 pm

For central PA into NEPA, I could be under estimating the northern wave that could pack a punch and bring 3+ amounts to parts of that area. That is why Tom has 4-6 zone in central PA. I think it is a legitimate concern.

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Post by mako460 Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:13 pm

I like ur map Tom, u and Frank have been so spot on this year. For some reason i think this may overproduce, Everything this year seems to align for us. Another jog to the west is never out of the question.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:58 pm

I'm not getting the rush reading about this storm tonight.

I must have 21 inch storm hangover. I gotta get some rest.
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Post by GreyBeard Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:05 am

  Next thing you know he'll have his sleeves rolled up again. Lol


It's so funny you`said that. Anytime there's a storm he's got his jacket off,sleeves rolled up,tie loosened to make it look like he's really working hard. He's got some act.  lol! 

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:14 am

2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map 519l

Latest Radar Image

Getting big, more moisture Thunder Storms show rotation at southern end
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:31 am

Already trying to go neg:
2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map 500mb

Looking Impressive.
2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map Rb-animated

The Surface LP looks to be exiting the coast a little further South than I thought.
2/15 Storm Obs. Thread - Final Snow Map Pmsl

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