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*BLOG* End Of February Through March

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:24 am

We are looking at a break from the cold weather these next few days due mainly to a cutter storm tracking into the Great Lakes which allows heights to rise along the east coast. Temperatures will get into the 40's and 50's today through Friday, with showers and storms possible on Friday once the cold front approaches. There was some rumor of severe weather, but I am not expecting that to occur in our neck of the woods. Severe weather parameters are not impressive, but some thunder and lightning is possible. Once the cold front passes, the colder than normal pattern returns. And it is going to be here for quite awhile.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Mjo

The MJO is expected to go through phase 7 this week then possibly go into phase 8 next week.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Mjo1

You cans see that an MJO temperature composite in phase 7 this time of year supports warmer than normal temperatures, which is what we will be seeing. Phase 8 is a different story. Temperatures are expected to drop in the eastern CONUS as a trough settles in over the area with ridging in the west.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Test8

Looking at the 500 mb levels of the models (GFS, CMC, EURO) they all look very similar in the day 10 time frame. A large eastern trough and a monster western ridge. Verbatim, this is a very amplified pattern on current guidance with extreme cold for this time of year. Last time we saw such an amplified pattern with the PV south of the Hudson Bay or over southeastern Canada was early to mid January. If you recall, we did not see much in the way of storms during that time. We were cold and dry for days because the PV kept squashing storm chances to our south due to its location and intensity.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Gfs_epo_bias

The EPO (Pacific blocking) is set to go negative once this week is over and this has been a reoccurring theme for us this winter. The blocking in the Pacific, Alaskan, and Arctic regions have brought down some of the coldest air masses we have seen in quite some time.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Ecmwf_pna_bias

The PNA is also expected to get back into a positive state, which was shown on the model image I posted earlier.

Right now, I am thinking storm chances will have to wait until March. We could see a minor snow event next week from an arctic front that comes through, but I feel the Polar Vortex is going to drop too far southward next week and squash any storms that attempt to form. The short waves are going to get crushed and not much is going to come out of it. This pattern remains me of the one we saw in January.

Once the PV lifts northward and retrogrades back into central Canada, the trough axis along the east coast becomes more favorable and the baroclinic zone sets up over our area, or just south. With that being said, look for a major storm signal between March 1st-5th. I think that is the time the PV retrogrades and a strong piece of energy ejects out of the Polar jet stream and develop an east coast storm.

Sometime it is not always good to get such amplified patterns like the one we are likely to see next week. It is possible this changes as we progress through the week and into the weekend, and the PV stays further north (which may in turn spawn a coastal storm like models were showing just yesterday), but right now, this is how I see it playing out and I think next week the story will be more-so the cold than the snow.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Cfa

The CFS suggests the entire month of March will be below normal. This has support from the EURO weeklies as well with a -EPO/-AO neutral PNA type of pattern. The NAO continues to remain positive (but we have done just fine this winter without a -NAO). I think March does present opportunities for additional snowfall that will bring CPK close to the snow record. However, I do not think they will break the record. Top 3 though? I think so.

We'll see what happens!

Frank

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:30 pm

Good blog, if you could re-post mine for the late February storm threat I would appreciate it considering I still see the general storm signal.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:33 pm

Great Blog Frank.  Here is Toms (NJWeatherGuy)'s blog from a few days ago as well.  Both excellent reads:

Figured I'd make a thread about this long range possibility. As we all know we have about a week of above-average temperatures and two cutter type storms in this time frame. The EURO has been further south with the cutters meaning more average temperatures but just beyond this is when it looks like it may get interesting. Below are the teleconnections and in parenthesis next to it I say whether they stay the same, improve, or worsen relative to general snow favorability. Keep in mind we have managed to get several impressive storms this year and years past with unfavorable signals so do not interpret them as the single defining factor whether we get snow (a mistake Henry M constantly makes).

NAO (generally looks to improve towards neutral)

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Nao_sp10

AO (wild spread, average out and stays pretty much where it is in neutral)

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Ao_spr10

PNA (looks to improve and creep towards neutral/positive in long range)

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Pna_sp10

MJO  (looking very good, phase 7 is where we want it)

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Ensplu10

Now onto models, GEFS have the storm signal (look at the red shading offshore)

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen71

OP GFS

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen72

ECMWRF

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen73

ECM EPS Control

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen74

Now of course, this is way too far in the future to take seriously. I like the fact the teleconnections are improving and the storm signal is there, that is really all we can ask for at this point. It is very possible this drops off the face of the earth in the coming days, let's monitor the threat without getting blinded by what OP runs show and clown maps because that is just setting up for failure.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:16 pm

Storm signal disappeared, but it could come back by this weekend. Only if the PV stays far enough north, which I think it won't right now.

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Post by shabsies Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:21 pm

Check our Bernie Rano's latest video
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/winter-returns-with-a-vengeanc/90462062001

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:22 pm

Euro brought back the mid week storm for next week and has the mother of all storms around the 1st of March. If the mid week storm gains consistency and support from other guidance, we will begin a new thread to track it. Let's give it until tomorrow night

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:28 pm

The Euro is a stones throw away from the GFS idea. The GFS is a stones throw away from the Euros idea. IMHO until Fridays GLC is pushed through the CONUS later this week we prob wont see consistency and/or convergence on next week's mid week system. Fridays GLC is ultimately what will set the table for next week. Lets not lose site of the possibility of Monday sneaking in a mild-moderate event as well.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:29 pm

@shabsies wrote:Check our Bernie Rano's latest video
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/winter-returns-with-a-vengeanc/90462062001

He always has great videos. Once you get to the middle part of that video, he mentions once the storm system on Monday passes by, the boundary sets up further south. In my blog, I say this as well.

Baroclinic zone = boundary layer

They are the same thing


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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:29 pm

But I will admit Frank todays Euro was just a hair away from a Roidzilla for Wed next week.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:32 pm

Watching the rest of that video, Bernie seems to suggest the boundary layer does not get too far south and the threat for a coastal storm exists next week. Like I said in the blog, it depends on the PV. If that large vortex comes too far south, baroclinic zone is forced southward and the energy gets crushed. We will know much more by Friday

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Post by mako460 Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:53 pm

Just a note about Sea Surface Temps (SST's) Yesterday I went down to check on my boat( I usually have to shovel it out and check the bilge pumps a day or two after a snowstorm and by then the docks are usually clear of snow and ice because of the warmer water. Well...I went down there yesterday and the dock is still covered with 8" of snowpack and I didn't dare to try to navigate that. From what i could see, my boat is full of snow (but still floating) and there is a good 1/4 inch of skim ice surrounding it, and this is straight salt water. So i really dont believe that this mini warm up is going to have much of an effect on anything. I'm sure NoFo will agree with me.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:57 pm

@sroc4 wrote:But I will admit Frank todays Euro was just a hair away from a Roidzilla for Wed next week.  

I think beginning of March, the 1st-6th period, offers much more potential in the way of big storms. Next week in my eyes would be bonus if anything falls.

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:41 pm

Like Scott said we need this GLC to get through here and the Midwest and then we will start to see what is what - for cryin' all night most storms have not popped up on the models until 48 hours before they hit this winter so let's take a break, de-ice, defrost etc,. and then start the next round. You will drive yourselves nuts with these runs but I do hope that we get a good one to track in the next few weeks.

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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 19, 2014 4:26 pm

Wow, reading those analysis above makes me think you guys could teach in meteorology school. Amazing stuff. From what I can take out of it, cold returns after this brief warm up and a possible snow pattern sets up again.

Doesn't seem like any long term warm ups in the picture at this point in time.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:16 pm

Still keeping an eye on the 26th threat due to the fact it's still on the EURO, and to a lesser extent (piece of energy that phases late, watch for this bias in long range) on the GFS and EURO control run. FWIW here is the regular EURO for the 26th storm.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen76

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen77

And then the EURO has this beauty at the end of the run, fun times ahead.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen78

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen79

Man I wish this EURO run went a few more frames out so we could see what it does, it's a joke this far out but I still would like to see it.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:22 pm

FWIW the 18z GFS trended more robust with the 26th system, I was looking at the 12z run. Frank, please if it's still there tomorrow let it be it's own blog haha. Just an OCD person for organization here.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen80
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Post by pdubz Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:32 pm

these storms next week better happen we need to break the record!  bounce 
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:47 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:FWIW the 18z GFS trended more robust with the 26th system, I was looking at the 12z run. Frank, please if it's still there tomorrow let it be it's own blog haha. Just an OCD person for organization here.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  Screen80

I said earlier if it is there tomorrow we will make a thread  cheers 

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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:48 pm

Watched the Mets from Penn State tonight and they gave their 30 day outlook (2/19-3/19). They agreed with Frank about the cold temps and also said there will be snow events and even(as they put it) possibly a 'crescendo' snowstorm as well.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:54 pm

wow, a bigger storm in future, lol people are starting to get really tired of me telling them there is more snow coming lol. I say better to be prepared then to not know. My dad asked me if I am causing these storms. Ummmm ya ok sure.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:55 pm

Is there a place to view the euro runs for free? As I understand it there isnt but just thought id ask here as Id really like to see them myself.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:56 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:Watched the Mets from Penn State tonight and they gave their 30 day outlook (2/19-3/19). They agreed with Frank about the cold temps and also said there will be snow events and even(as they put it) possibly a 'crescendo' snowstorm as well.

Crescendo must be there version of "Godzilla"  Wink 

1st week of March excites me. Lets just hope it all comes together like it has so far this season.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 19, 2014 7:10 pm

Well in music crescendo is the height of a piece or a scale, the most exciting so maybe even more than a godzilla! I agree frank the beginning of March is intriguing and I do not discount next week entirely either.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:44 pm

Tom pure conjecture at this point so we need to see where the PV sets up - does it squash the storms OTS or allow them to ride up the coast so to speak. We need this GLC to do its thing and then we will get better sampling of the energies.


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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:58 pm

one thing to note about this time of year, even though the PV is dropping south and reestablishing the cold air, with spring approaching the heat is also starting to build to our south. places like jacksonvile fla. are in the 70's and 80's and even up to charlotte temps in the high 60's. this battle of air masses can really fire up some strong storms. so IMO we want the cold air to dig as far south as possible. my thinking is it's only going to make it as far south as N.C. which could put us in the perfect spot to see an intense storm with snow. we shall see but this look very interesting.
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