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*BLOG* End Of February Through March

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:59 pm

Nj we have almost 60 inches of snow with zero blocking this year. for whatever the reason it snowed despite the positive nao. I think that we can get some 50\50 blocking from some of the storms that will be spinning up to northeast of us. So I won't get too discouraged with the NAO outlook. obviously I love if we had it.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:02 pm

@algae888 wrote:Nj we have almost 60 inches of snow with zero blocking this year. for whatever the reason it snowed despite the positive nao. I think that we can get some 50\50 blocking from some of the storms that will be spinning up to northeast of us. So I won't get too discouraged with the NAO outlook. obviously I love if we had it.

Without the negative NAO or other good signals I don't see a blocked storm, maybe some fast movers but IMHO we're not going to get a massive storm in March with this setup.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:43 am

The euro in the long range is bitterly cold. We actually get colder than the North Pole, which means any storm threats get sheared apart from the polar vortex. If true, the midweek storm this week would be our only chance for measurable snowfall until we get to March 4th, which is the next period I'm watching. March 1st could have some snow showers. Not thinking big storm this moment.

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:53 am

Frank need one more big storm before spring I'm not ready for spring yet want this board to heat up again
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:31 pm

Models today really starting to like March 1st-5th period for two possible moderate snow events. I think March 1st stays mainly light and March 4th could be a bigger storm. But they could both trend in different directions. We'll see. MJO going into phase 8 supports storminess and cold weather to open March.

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Post by HectorO Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:57 pm

I'm ready for spring, felt so good out. But I know theres some frigid weather still headed here.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:35 pm

@HectorO wrote:I'm ready for spring, felt so good out. But I know theres some frigid weather still headed here.

Agree, snow left is yucky thick slush and is all dirty. Wouldn't mind for it to melt off, got some good work done today because it was warm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:41 pm

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 5 1658181_692944210757341_1638174153_o

The cold returns this week as the pattern undergoes another change. With the cold comes a couple of storm threats. One this Wednesday and probably two more between March 1st - March 5th. In regards to this one on Wednesday, as shown in the image below from the 12z EURO, the PV is going to sink south and position itself southeast of the Hudson Bay. With the 50/50 southeast of Greenland, this presents a scenario that is NOT conducive for major storm development.

The upper air pattern is too extreme right during this time. There's ridging taking place in the western US (+PNA), over Alaska (-EPO), and Greenland (-NAO). These connecting of ridges forces the mean PV to get uncharacteristically south disallowing amplification along the east coast since heights remain too low. The short waves are not given ample space to mature into a storm.

That being said, there is likely to be sufficient energy to pass underneath the PV over our area, and there could be a weak surface low off the coast Monday. I think it remains too far east now, due to the reasons mentioned above, but I still like a 2-4/3-6 inch type of event to target NJ / NYC Metro. We'll see how the trends go through this week. There's a chance this trends weaker.

As for early March, still a little early, but I like the configuration of the upper level pattern better by then for storm development. I've said that since last week. The west-based -NAO moves a little more north and east, which allows the PV to retreat some. This could allow heights along the east coast to rise a little more and promote storm development. Therefore, I really like the 1st-5th time period the most and feel a couple of snow events are possible by then. With the MJO progressing through phases 7-8 and possibly 1, I think this makes the most sense.

We'll see what happens. But winter is not done just yet.

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