NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

*BLOG* End Of February Through March

Page 2 of 5 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:04 pm

I know its hr 240 0n the EURO, but holy crap! If that run were to play out, that's a HECS on roids! Easy 2-3 footer. Trying not to get excited, but the pattern in early March just screams potential!
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1716
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:08 pm

nutley I saw too wow, but don't lose sleep for the next 10 days on that one, yet anyways lets see what happens and id like to see tomorrow if its still there what it does in the next few frames.! Heres hopin!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:15 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:I know its hr 240 0n the EURO, but holy crap! If that run were to play out, that's a HECS on roids! Easy 2-3 footer. Trying not to get excited, but the pattern in early March just screams potential!

Don't get excited yet, the EURO had that nice February 5th storm that ended up as nasty rainy icy mess as a widespread 2 foot plus blizzard until about the upper 100hrs range then it began to correct towards the GFS. Don't hold your breath yet, we need to take a bit of a breather before screaming the b-word in the long range.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:24 pm

The cold air being shown on the GFS for next week is just bitter. Looks like January

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:31 pm

Madonne...

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Post-40-0-51636700-1392870649

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by pdubz Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:53 pm

bringing back the fluffy snow again with 15:1 or more ratios?
pdubz
pdubz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 539
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-09-24
Age : 29
Location : Port Washington,NY (L.I)

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:05 am

Tom, you were mentioning in this thread how you wanted to see the EURO go a few more frames. Well the 0Z EURO shows the ultimate fantasy storm, the one that snow-lovers (aka"weenies") dream of. But how often have we been down this path before in which we see a "Roidzilla" on the long-range EURO only to have it disappear soon afterwards. The upcoming GLC will help to dictate how next week's pattern will set up.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by algae888 Thu Feb 20, 2014 5:11 am

from upton....LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A DYNAMIC PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE IN THE LONG TERM COVERING THE
PERIOD OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RETURNING
THE REGION TO A WINTER TIME PATTERN
.

ON A LARGE SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STAYS SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK IN
OUR REGION BUT TOWARDS THE WEST WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGING
AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE
SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH
CONTINUED RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS IS FURTHER CONVEYED IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE OUTLOOKS REGARDING THE PNA...WHICH SHOW A STRONG POSITIVE
TREND TOWARDS THE END OF FEBRUARY AND A MEAN SIGNAL WITH THE AO
CONVEYING A NEGATIVE TREND FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME.


CONCERNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THESE WILL BE TIED TO THE
FOLLOWING FEATURES. FIRST...A SHORTWAVE BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SECOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIRD...LARGE SCALE DEEPENING OF TROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND PASSING SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND.

FOR THESE EVENTS...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE LIGHT EVENTS. NEXT
WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FOR MORE QPF.

HOWEVER...BEING THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS
ABUNDANT UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL FLUCTUATIONS WITH POSITION OF LOW
AND FAR OFFSHORE IT IS AS WELL AS HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD IS IN THE AREA WILL BE FEATURES TO WATCH IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.


WOW! a winter that does not want to end. this may turn out to be historic winter in terms of cold and snow. 95-96 was just the snow. we have both this year. enjoy every minute of this. we probably will not see a winter like this again.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Feb 20, 2014 5:46 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:I know its hr 240 0n the EURO, but holy crap! If that run were to play out, that's a HECS on roids! Easy 2-3 footer. Trying not to get excited, but the pattern in early March just screams potential!

Don't get excited yet, the EURO had that nice February 5th storm that ended up as nasty rainy icy mess as a widespread 2 foot plus blizzard until about the upper 100hrs range then it began to correct towards the GFS. Don't hold your breath yet, we need to take a bit of a breather before screaming the b-word in the long range.
 I  know the drill. When a storm is that far away, the first thing we need is a general run to run consistency, along with support from the other models and its ensembles. As we get into the mid-range, sun-mon time period I'm sure the models will start to downplay the storm, or lose it entirely, only to bring it back. It happens time after time with these big storms. Whenever the GFS shows a big storm in the long range, I take it with a grain of salt. Although the EURO has struggled at times this year, when it shows a shows a storm of that magnitude, it raises an eyebrow. If we can get this under 100 hours, let's say Monday-Tuesday, I will woof it up.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1716
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 7:37 am

I will post the Accu maps when I get home, the 3 weather apps on my phone all call for 2 days of snow in March with 85% POP, lol.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:04 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I will post the Accu maps when I get home, the 3 weather apps on my phone all call for 2 days of snow in March with 85% POP, lol.

Tom:

What are the start times and do you think the coast will have a mixture? JK
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:09 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I will post the Accu maps when I get home, the 3 weather apps on my phone all call for 2 days of snow in March with 85% POP, lol.

Tom:

What are the start times and do you think the coast will have a mixture? JK

Got to love that people actually ask those questions a week out and even like 5 days out. It takes going down to 48ish hours just to get the idea of track and precip types down and even then it can change.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:33 am

Euro still has the Roidzilla for March 1st  Shocked 

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:37 am

The setup the euro has for that March 1st time period is pretty nice

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Image

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by amugs Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:24 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro still has the Roidzilla for March 1st  Shocked 

I noticed this last night and this bad boy dropped COPIUS amounts of snow on us! As Bil Evans would say could be BIBLICAL!! He used this term with the Presidents Day storm of 2003.

SON OF A B%$! - IT CAN"T I have Rangers Bruins tix for my family - got them for them as a Xmass present - my kids hate the Bruins (anything Boston at that) - just my friggin' luck - l ike I did not go for hundreds already now I have to get a hotel in the city - a thounsand here I come!! Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes 

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:46 am

Ill get excited when its within 100hrs, I somewhat expect it to drop off the face of the earth fairly soon, it could come back but there has been times this winter and others where it doesnt.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 20, 2014 10:05 am

Frank u think the 1st storm is an actual possibility? I found some euro maps and wow that is one historic storm but I am not gonna get all excited until it's been through many runs. I know u will keep us posted.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 10:09 am

The only thing I want to say for the more uninformed members is "30" blizzard February 9th" this is potential ATM and thats all it is
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:14 am

Nj feb 9th? U mean last year? So u r saying pattern is similar basically. Thx will just keep my eyes out.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:19 am

No this year....
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:22 am

Oh right the one we lost sorry forgot bout that.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:29 am

The storm last year was terrible, like 7" out this way max, yet another LI and SNE blizzard. Need the storm to form by the time its near the Delmarva for a storm here, bombing out at benchmark or east is too late.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:34 am

GFS still shows snow for mid week next week, about a couple of inches. Someone start a thread for 02/26 - 02/27 Snow Threat (I'm mobile at the moment, make sure to include dates in title) Thanks!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:41 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS still shows snow for mid week next week, about a couple of inches. Someone start a thread for 02/26 - 02/27 Snow Threat (I'm mobile at the moment, make sure to include dates in title) Thanks!

Frank your killing me, I made that thread with an informative blog in the beginning. Its buried in the long range thread somewhere, someone just pull it out of there somehow, I cant because im not a mod.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:47 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS still shows snow for mid week next week, about a couple of inches. Someone start a thread for 02/26 - 02/27 Snow Threat (I'm mobile at the moment, make sure to include dates in title) Thanks!

Frank your killing me, I made that thread with an informative blog in the beginning. Its buried in the long range thread somewhere, someone just pull it out of there somehow, I cant because im not a mod.

I found it. Next time I'll just lock the thread instead of merging it in.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* End Of February Through March  - Page 2 Empty Re: *BLOG* End Of February Through March

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 5 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum