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02/24 Possible Snow Wave

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:38 pm

A large Alaskan ridge is going to develop over the weekend with another ridge developing in the western U.S. (-EPO/+PNA pattern). Downstream toward the eastern U.S., this is going to put us in a west-northwest flow which enables upper air energy to dive into our region.

02/24 Possible Snow Wave  Image

The GEFS nicely show the higher heights in the west U.S. and over Alaska with the W-NW flow extending into the northeast U.S. with a piece of the PV situated east of the Hudson Bay.

In this time frame, a boundary layer is situated over the northern mid-atlantic left behind from the cold front that will effect us on Friday.

02/24 Possible Snow Wave  Image

The vorticity maps suggest there will be a good amount of energy rotating around the PV early next week. If a piece of northern stream s/w energy breaks off and connects with the boundary layer, it will develop a surface low and bring a swath of snow to our area. Given the W-NW flow due to the ridges in the west, this is a realistic scenario. Granted this is expected to be a minor event, with the bigger storm possibly lurking later in the week, but it is worth keeping an eye on. These things often trend stronger as the day nears.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:39 pm

Geez Frank I'm starting to think you have some kind of power to create these storms to track, never a dull moment. LOL.

I thought we were looking at a week of calm, and boring. There are records to break and snowpacks to replenish by Monday so let's get the ball rolling again.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:08 am

This potential has been discussed for the last couple of days in other forums as well.  If you look back at some of the moderate events that we have had this winter this type of setup is almost identical. Of course  we have also had some of these northern s/w end up staying connected to the PV and merely rotating around it passing harmless to the north, but many of them have broken off and dug into the Conus a bit separating its self from the PV spawning a surface LP that produces.  Like Frank said where exactly the boundary layer sets up combined with how the PV situated itself will be paramount in setting up the early week potential which inturn will set up the mid week potential. It's going to be an interesting weekend of tracking.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:10 am

I like the 26th threat over this to be honest. Just dont see much here, il double check the models when i get home.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:32 am

Euro still shows minor snowfall for this days.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:45 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I like the 26th threat over this to be honest. Just dont see much here, il double check the models when i get home.
If you go by the models you won't see a whole lot but I think the thermal gradient is something that enhances this potential as time goes by.  We really have to see where exactly the boundary layer sets up first which is determined by tomorrow's frontal passage. Models won't see the true potential for this system until Fridays 0z at the earliest. This is of course is MHO. It still might not be anything like you said. Just as much chance of nothing as anything else at this point.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:32 am

12z GFS now shows light snow for Monday

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:39 am

Light snow followed by my moderate event on the 26th haha
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:03 pm

12z ggem

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014022012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014022012_091.png

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z ggem

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014022012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014022012_091.png

Wow that looks like a nice quick hitter by the looks of that, hopefully the models trend wetter like that sneaky wave on 2/3 where that exact thing happens. Still looks minor but its officially got my attention haha.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 20, 2014 5:00 pm

18Z GFS I'll take it if it verifies.

02/24 Possible Snow Wave  F90

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Post by oldtimer Thu Feb 20, 2014 5:28 pm

Amugs Yesterday there was some talk of getting biter cold next week It that still in the cards?

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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 20, 2014 5:44 pm

I think this starts coming together as a quick moving 1-3, 2-4 inch event with limited moisture from the Northern Stream. Will be tough to get more than that as its a very quick mover. Though we will have to watch to see if we start getting some QPF increases or decreases. Could be a nice light event to start off the cold stretch.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 20, 2014 6:03 pm

@Quietace wrote:I think this starts coming together as a quick moving 1-3, 2-4 inch event with limited moisture from the Northern Stream. Will be tough to get more than that as its a very quick mover. Though we will have to watch to see if we start getting some QPF increases or decreases. Could be a nice light event to start off the cold stretch.  

Absoluetly - just like we started off with the last reload after the warm up in Jan Ace start off small and head to a bigger and better. bounce bounce 

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 20, 2014 6:07 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Amugs    Yesterday there was some talk of getting biter cold next week  It that still in the cards?

Cold but I do not know about bitter - what do you consider bitter teens as highs and zero's at night. That maybe tough at this time of the year but it still will be a good 15 degrees below normal mid to upper 20's but will know more after this cold front sweeps through to see where this PV sets up - if like Frank said it sets up more south of Hudson Bay we are very cold/bitter and dry. we'll see but OT it will be cold next week without a doubt and the following week as well - this -EPO is going to send this cold air in from the NW.

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Post by oldtimer Thu Feb 20, 2014 7:17 pm

Yea Mugs I was thinking 20s teens at night Thx

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 20, 2014 7:44 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Yea  Mugs  I was thinking 20s teens at night  Thx
Old Timer,

This cold wil be with for the first part/half of March too!  Could get bitter if we have a good snowpack.

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 20, 2014 10:04 pm

I know its the long range nam but it is showing about .25qpf for sunday night. mostly snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 21, 2014 2:05 am

Update:

Probably looking at a coating to an inch or two Sunday night into Monday morning. Right now, that's my forecast.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:06 am

Well, I thought the 12Z Nam made Sunday night's event look interesting. Granted, it is the Nam and probably somewhat out of its range but definitely worth watching.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:10 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Well, I thought the 12Z Nam made Sunday night's event look interesting. Granted, it is the Nam and probably somewhat out of its range but definitely worth watching.

No question about it CP.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:17 am

12z gfs very dry with this system. cmc out to hour 48 seems dry too.  😢 
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:45 am

@algae888 wrote:12z gfs very dry with this system. cmc out to hour 48 seems dry too.  😢 

Algae - the gfs sucks at these northern vorts - has struggled all winter long with them so i wouldn't pay much attention to it until this beast in the midwest/GL is gone. UKIE coming in with .25 + for the area. We'll see.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:53 am

CMC is coming in wet!! Agree with Mugs. I am telling you that once we see where the boundary layer sets up, which isnt happening until after the front passes today, the true details of this system and wed system will show itself. One thing that is not going to be modeled, I think, this far out is the thermal gradient between very cold air and very warm air. Even a weak s/w that rides along this frontal boundary has a chance to become more amped due to this idea.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:55 am

@amugs wrote:
@algae888 wrote:12z gfs very dry with this system. cmc out to hour 48 seems dry too.  😢 

Algae - the gfs sucks at these northern vorts - has struggled all winter long with them so i wouldn't pay much attention to it until this beast in the midwest/GL is gone.  UKIE coming in with .25 + for the area.  We'll see.

mugs I thought the GFS was good with the northern vorts and sucks with the southern? cmc shows a nice 1-3 event but starts as rain along the coast
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