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02/24 Possible Snow Wave

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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:53 am

GFS is rain to snow. Temps start in the low 30s North Jersey to 38 on coastal areas. Temps crash fast after that but accumulations are still limited.
Snow maps are about .2 to about 1.0 inches.
02/24 Possible Snow Wave  - Page 3 Gfs_6h11
02/24 Possible Snow Wave  - Page 3 Gfs_6h12

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:54 am

@Quietace wrote:GFS is rain to snow. Temps start in the low 30s North Jersey to 38 on coastal areas. Temps crash fast after that but accumulations are still limited.
Snow maps are about .2 to about 1.0 inches.
02/24 Possible Snow Wave  - Page 3 Gfs_6h11
02/24 Possible Snow Wave  - Page 3 Gfs_6h12

This time of year that's basically just wet roads and a slight coating only on existing snowpack.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:00 am

@docstox12 wrote:Well, all I remember from the 70's was the 78 storms in January and Feb which were 16 plus inches each.

The 80's I remember April '82-13inches, Feb.'83 21 inches and Jan 86 12 inches.


Doc:  

The one good thing about the 70's was it was a cold decade. Drier, therefore the second least snowiest decade ever, but what fell usually stuck around a long time. 76/77 and 77/78 were very cold winters much more so than this one and the snow lasted forever.

The winter of 76/77 the average temperature was 28.5 in NYC for the 3 months Dec-Feb, as opposed to this years 33.0 so far. That is a huge difference over a 3 month span. In 77/78 the average was 30.3 still much lower than this winter.

The 80's were snowless, and mild. There has been only one decade that has not had at least one season of 40 or more inches of snow in history and that is the 80's.  To show how bad it was there was never even a year in the 80's where NYC recorded more than 30 inches of snow. In 2021, Once the 1980's are not part of the 30 year average anymore, the NYC average will go from 26.7 to closer to 30 inches per year, probably close to the 145 year average of 28.7,  depending on how the rest of this decade unfolds.

PS- Mugs, thanks for the temperature data.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:59 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is not an exciting event for this time of year, we need dynamic cooling and a lot of precip to get significant accumulations on roadways and elsewhere, C-2" is my call as of now.

That has always been the cieling for this event. C-2 inches. Probably C-1 inch.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:35 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is not an exciting event for this time of year, we need dynamic cooling and a lot of precip to get significant accumulations on roadways and elsewhere, C-2" is my call as of now.

That has always been the cieling for this event. C-2 inches. Probably C-1 inch.

Looking more likely, was thinking about C-1 but said C-2 to allow for higher amounts, after I've been awake for a few hours my head is clear now and I realize the NAM is very likely too wet in this timeframe like it was with that clipper thing last week when on the day of the storm when it was supposed to come at night the NAM had us in .75-1" QPF, ended up like .1-.3 QPF depending on where you were, epic fail. It will likely correct dry sometime before the event. My call is C-1" agree with you completely, especially with the bad surface temperatures.
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Post by Artechmetals Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:12 pm

When is this for? Also is thurs something to watch
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:40 pm

the 18z nam came in with a general .25-.5 qpf. It was a little wetter than the 12 Z and looks colder too.however it continues to be the outlier with no other model showing so much precipitation. the one good thing why we may see some accumulatoion is that it would be happening in the early morning hours and temperatures will be crashing as the upper levels are very cold. maybe we can squeeze out two or three inches.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:49 pm

18Z NAM would be 3-4 inches of snow in HV Sunday night late early Monday morning, anywhere 1-3 in NNJ, NYC. Of course it is by itself right now with no other model support so probability is low.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:51 pm

NAM snow map for those wondering.
02/24 Possible Snow Wave  - Page 3 Nam_sn10

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:51 pm

@sroc4 wrote:  Would not be surprised over the next 24hrs or so if one or more models trys to increase QPF by a few tenths of an inch.  Just enough to get us a bit excited (nothing crazy though).  I also wouldnt be surprised to see it under perform when it finally comes to fruition as the last few minor events have.  I believe Tom said something along those lines a few days ago.  Anyway for now I agree with Frank...hard not to.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:54 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:  Would not be surprised over the next 24hrs or so if one or more models trys to increase QPF by a few tenths of an inch.  Just enough to get us a bit excited (nothing crazy though).  I also wouldnt be surprised to see it under perform when it finally comes to fruition as the last few minor events have.  I believe Tom said something along those lines a few days ago.  Anyway for now I agree with Frank...hard not to.

18Z GFS looking better for Sunday night/Monday. It may be starting to happen.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:01 pm

Same as the WRF-NMM looks like a nice little thump
02/24 Possible Snow Wave  - Page 3 Wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour

18z GFS Up close
02/24 Possible Snow Wave  - Page 3 <a href=02/24 Possible Snow Wave  - Page 3 18z_gf10" />

We shall see how it all plays out over the next 24hrs on these crazy models. LI and extreme coast will still prob have issues on the front end with warm surface temps

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:04 pm

Hopefully you guys in the HV and NW NJ can sqeeze out 2-4/3-5" Still not convinced. Let the 24hr model trend/tease wetter commence..lol

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:10 pm

Yes 18z gfs more in line with nam plus srefs got wetter too! Good trends lets see whay happens tonight
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:51 pm

Remember the storm 6 hours after the Superbowl? There was no mention of it from NWS the day before, WSW not issued till 4 am when snow began.  Ended up with 8 inches in the city. No mention even during the game of impending storm cause no one saw those kinds of accumulations coming.

I'm not saying that will happen again, and odds right now are against it, but look back at the similarities. We are coming out of a couple days of above normal temperatures, heading back into a colder pattern, Sunday night wih a snow wave going to our south, most thought would bring 1 or 2 inches the day before it happened.

A long shot but who says it can't happen twice, maybe not to that degree but a surprise 4-6?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:45 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Remember the storm 6 hours after the Superbowl? There was no mention of it from NWS the day before, WSW not issued till 4 am when snow began.  Ended up with 8 inches in the city. No mention even during the game of impending storm cause no one saw those kinds of accumulations coming.

I'm not saying that will happen again, and odds right now are against it, but look back at the similarities. We are coming out of a couple days of above normal temperatures, heading back into a colder pattern, Sunday night wih a snow wave going to our south, most thought would bring 1 or 2 inches the day before it happened.

A long shot but who says it can't happen twice, maybe not to that degree but a surprise 4-6?

I think that's a long shot, what happened with that storm is that the models had it suppressed, it was clear that Gulf moisture would be involved but the pattern looked too zonal, however the models trended north with the frontal boundary and increased moisture pull off the gulf raising QPF. Correct, it is a similar setup given it's riding on a frontal boundary but it just looks very far away from tapping any significant moisture and I am confident amounts will be low unless we get some dark green shading going. The .01-.1" QPF in 6hrs doesn't accumulate snow well this time of year. We saw that wonderful storm last week right after 2/14 right?
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:29 pm

ooz nam and cmc dry for sunday night. amazing how nam flip flops from run to run. no consistency at all. I was hoping for a few inches from this wave but looks like nada. the last few events have been busts hope we are not starting a bad trend this late in a winter that wants to snow. well hopefully we will get something this week.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:58 pm

00z gfs came in drier also. .1 qpf. funny upton just upped snow totals from 1-2 to 2-4 for most of the area. guess they haven't seen 00z runs.lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:25 am

Time to put this one to rest.

Hopefully Wednesday can come through with something. This never really seemed to have much of a chance even though I may have tried to wishcast this into a moderate event it was never going to be.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:38 am

Looks like a cold, dry week coming up with maybe a small event on Weds.NWS bumped to 60% chance of snow in my area that day.

Maybe 14 inches of original 28 to 30 inch snowpack left.I think that early last week before the mild spell hit will be the high water mark for snowpack this year.Chances for a big storm long range seem to be fizzling out.

Anyway, it was a perfect snowmelt.Slow, steady with no massive 2 to 3 inch rainstorm.
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:51 am

@docstox12 wrote:Looks like a cold, dry week coming up with maybe a small event on Weds.NWS bumped to 60% chance of snow in my area that day.

Maybe 14 inches of original 28 to 30 inch snowpack left.I think that early last week before the mild spell hit will be the high water mark for snowpack this year.Chances for a big storm long range seem to be fizzling out.

Anyway, it was a perfect snowmelt.Slow, steady with no massive 2 to 3 inch rainstorm.

I had hoped that we were going to add to our snowpack, but like you said Doc, things look like there fizzling out. What good is cold if you can't get some snow with it.
It's very depressing. I bet you as soon as it gets milder will probably get few rain events, now that's really depressing. UGH. Sad 
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:39 am

The RAP is showing this as a 1 to 2 inch event around a lot of the area between midnight and 6 AM.

I know I'm really grasping at straws here, but I am desperate. the snow on the ground at least needs a freshening up after the beating it has taken this week.
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:41 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The RAP is showing this as a 1 to 2 inch event around a lot of the area between midnight and 6 AM.

I know I'm really grasping at straws here, but  I am desperate. the snow on the ground at least needs a freshening up after the beating it has taken this week.
The HRRR is mostly a rain event through hour 15.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:54 am

@Quietace wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The RAP is showing this as a 1 to 2 inch event around a lot of the area between midnight and 6 AM.

I know I'm really grasping at straws here, but  I am desperate. the snow on the ground at least needs a freshening up after the beating it has taken this week.
The HRRR is mostly a rain event through hour 15.

After midnight tonight I don't really see temperatures being an issue in the Hudson Valley, Northwest New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania with this. I believe it'll be all snow here, again it's such a minor event I don't know why I am wasting my time and anyone else's with it.
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:57 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The RAP is showing this as a 1 to 2 inch event around a lot of the area between midnight and 6 AM.

I know I'm really grasping at straws here, but  I am desperate. the snow on the ground at least needs a freshening up after the beating it has taken this week.
The HRRR is mostly a rain event through hour 15.

After midnight tonight I don't really see temperatures being an issue in the Hudson Valley, Northwest New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania with this. I believe it'll be all snow here, again it's such a minor event I don't know why I am wasting my time and anyone else's with it.
I dont think the HV sees any precip from this so you wont have to worry about temps.

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