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02/26 Snowstorm Potential

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:47 am

Models are honing in on a possible snowstorm for next week. Not expecting this to be a big one. A light to moderate event, 3-6/4-8 type of deal. But it could trend stronger. Still 1 week out, so remain cautious. This is just a possibility, not a forecast.

Here was Tom's writeup on the potential...

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Figured I'd make a thread about this long range possibility. As we all know we have about a week of above-average temperatures and two cutter type storms in this time frame. The EURO has been further south with the cutters meaning more average temperatures but just beyond this is when it looks like it may get interesting. Below are the teleconnections and in parenthesis next to it I say whether they stay the same, improve, or worsen relative to general snow favorability. Keep in mind we have managed to get several impressive storms this year and years past with unfavorable signals so do not interpret them as the single defining factor whether we get snow (a mistake Henry M constantly makes).

NAO (generally looks to improve towards neutral)

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Nao_sp10

AO (wild spread, average out and stays pretty much where it is in neutral)

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Ao_spr10

PNA (looks to improve and creep towards neutral/positive in long range)

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Pna_sp10

MJO  (looking very good, phase 7 is where we want it)

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Ensplu10

Now onto models, GEFS have the storm signal (look at the red shading offshore)

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen71

OP GFS

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen72

ECMWRF

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen73

ECM EPS Control

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen74

Now of course, this is way too far in the future to take seriously. I like the fact the teleconnections are improving and the storm signal is there, that is really all we can ask for at this point. It is very possible this drops off the face of the earth in the coming days, let's monitor the threat without getting blinded by what OP runs show and clown maps because that is just setting up for failure.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 20, 2014 6:26 pm

12z EURO

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen81

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen82

18z GFS

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen83

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen84

12z JMA

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen85

12z CMC

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen86

CMC is by far the least impressive with just a cluster of snow showers.

GFS ENS

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  Screen87

Let's not forget about this, the possibility of a light-moderate event in this timeframe is still very much alive unlike this thread.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 20, 2014 7:59 pm

Tom,
 This will start hopping soon my man and great post above. I feel this will be a moderate event and what a nice pattern with the EPO and Huge PNA IMO. Just need that PV to elongate and not crush/ suppress our storms. 

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:06 pm

Im waitin g until the weekend before I get real excited about any of these threats. I guess you can say Im pacing myself.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:37 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Im waitin g until the weekend before I get real excited about any of these threats.  I guess you can say Im pacing myself.  
Slow and steady wins the race!! Th jack rabbit gets lost in the pack after a furious start!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 21, 2014 2:06 am

Update:

Models are gradually becoming more aggressive with this event. Right now, I'm seeing a 2-4 inch type of storm with potential of 4-8 inches. Don't really see this turning into 8+ now for anyone. But we'll see.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:29 am

Will post 12z when I get home, havent looked at any models since yesterday 18z
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:12 am

Looking promising from what I have seen on some models. 4-8 would be great would replenish close to what we have lost depending on how much of the "R" word we get today which doesn't look like much. And then hopefully as Frank said we get something back around March 1st on the models : )
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:17 am

12z GFS at hr 144 has 6-8 or 9 inches on the ground around the area on top of what we have : ) got that from instant weather maps. I bet this thing trends even stronger although the GFS as we know has been a issue, will have to wait and see what other models say.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:18 am

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=141
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:22 am

I didn't know where to post this but 12z gfs has a nice event on Tuesday morning the 25th. 2-4, 3-6" amounts.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:41 am

WOW!!! 12Z GFS has a 992mb low at benchmark on Wednesday. looks like 4-8" snow. more further east. and low strengthens even further as is passes us. down to 980mb n/e of cape cod. if it can only strengthen sooner we could be looking at another major snowfall.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:44 am

looks like it phases and there is gulf moisture involved. those of you who know the upper level maps better can you confirm this?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:44 pm

algae, yeah wow GFS explodes this thing just a bit too late, but who knows things change like crazy this winter. If that bombed out south of us we'd have a really big storm. Heres watching.
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:00 pm

12z Euro drops a nice 3-6 inch storm as well though the LP is well of shore.  Heights are a bit too zonal  as the NS stream is progressive (the PV does suppress this storm a bit) and does not dig much into the southern us as its rotating around the PV North of the Boarder. This with a late negative tilt of the trough on the Euro allows for a off shore track. But we can still manage a light to moderate event with that type track.
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  2-21-110
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:05 pm

00z GFS brings just some snow showers not to the area for this storm. The EURO is much different. GFS keeps waffling though. Lets see where we stand by Monday. The PV is very strong.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:21 am

Euro

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/00z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f108.png?1393049828


http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/00z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f114.png?1393049945

Let's get this closer to the coast with quicker stream interaction and we get ourselves a significant event with high ratio snowfalls. This was still a nice run though.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:32 am

With ratios, euro was about 4-8 inches of snow

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:38 am

NWS discusses possibility of a "high impact" storm in this time period but too early to mention details as things have to come together right for this to happen.

Guess we'll know by Monday night where we stand on this.One thing for sure, it gets COLD again!
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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:07 am

The Mets at Penn State last night also mentioned this event, plus they mentioned the possibility for the one at the beginning of March in their 12 day trend segment. They said the models are having trouble because there are so many disturbances off the Pacific coast they are are not getting good sampling. But they said the chill will relax a little which will push the jet stream North and set us up for the possible March event. It's what Frank said in his blog, it all depends on where things set up. I guess we'll see what happens in the upcoming days. I 'm hoping things workout, we need to replenish our snowpack and maybe break a couple of records too.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:43 am

Right now the EURO is the only model showing this thing as a potential hefty storm, the GFS kind of shears out the energy and just few snow showers pass, many others showing this as well. Have a bad feeling this might be a time when the EURO caves to other guidance.
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:44 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Right now the EURO is the only model showing this thing as a potential hefty storm, the GFS kind of shears out the energy and just few snow showers pass, many others showing this as well. Have a bad feeling this might be a time when the EURO caves to other guidance.
We will see. Not ready to throw out any solution right now.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:46 am

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Right now the EURO is the only model showing this thing as a potential hefty storm, the GFS kind of shears out the energy and just few snow showers pass, many others showing this as well. Have a bad feeling this might be a time when the EURO caves to other guidance.
We will see. Not ready to throw out any solution right now.

Didn't say I'm throwing it out, just would like to see at least the other European/Canadian models to be on its side.
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:49 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Right now the EURO is the only model showing this thing as a potential hefty storm, the GFS kind of shears out the energy and just few snow showers pass, many others showing this as well. Have a bad feeling this might be a time when the EURO caves to other guidance.
We will see. Not ready to throw out any solution right now.

Didn't say I'm throwing it out, just would like to see at least the other European/Canadian models to be on its side.
I agree, I just put a bit more weight on the Euro when its ensembles agree, which mostly the mean does.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:53 am

You're correct, don't have individual members but the EPS run likes the event, I just hope it holds through the next couple days and the others trend to it.

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