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02/26 Snowstorm Potential

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RJB8525
HeresL
Artechmetals
HectorO
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mhbaben
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SNOW MAN
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:49 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Quietace wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Right now the EURO is the only model showing this thing as a potential hefty storm, the GFS kind of shears out the energy and just few snow showers pass, many others showing this as well. Have a bad feeling this might be a time when the EURO caves to other guidance.
We will see. Not ready to throw out any solution right now.

Didn't say I'm throwing it out, just would like to see at least the other European/Canadian models to be on its side.
I agree, I just put a bit more weight on the Euro when its ensembles agree, which mostly the mean does.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:53 am

You're correct, don't have individual members but the EPS run likes the event, I just hope it holds through the next couple days and the others trend to it.

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Screen88

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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:00 am

GFS has nothing again. Fast zonal suppressed flow on the east coast at H5
Closest it gets.
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Gfs_pr21
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:03 am

Quietace wrote:GFS has nothing again. Fast zonal suppressed flow on the east coast at H5
Closest it gets.
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Gfs_pr21

Yea, doesn't do anything for us here.
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:04 am

Mega ridging in the west and some limited positive anomalies in Greenland.
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Gfs_z519
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:05 am

Quietace wrote:Mega ridging in the west and some limited positive anomalies in Greenland.
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Gfs_z519

Trough is too zonal, wide, and south this is the perfect recipe for very cold and dry condition, ugly.
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:08 am

Absolutely Tom, said that before. PV is just very suppressing and not in a good spot for us at least on the GFS. Comparing to the Euro though, there are some glaring differences with the amplification of the east coast trough allowing for the euro to ride the storm North. Much sharper .
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Ecmwf_47
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:34 am

Quietace wrote:Absolutely Tom, said that before. PV is just very suppressing and not in a good spot for us at least on the GFS. Comparing to the Euro though, there are some glaring differences with the amplification of the east coast trough allowing for the euro to ride the storm North. Much sharper .
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Ecmwf_47

Yea, the differences are very easy to see, the GFS has a broad deep trough with a strong positive tilt in the US meanwhile the EURO is much sharper with a more neutral tilt. I'd rather see the EURO and storms then get a period of colder, dry air as shown on the GFS, count me out of that.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:08 pm

does anyone have the update on the 12z euro. I'm thinking it's caved to the gfs since nobody's posted it. hopefully everyone just outside enjoying the nice weather.
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:12 pm

algae888 wrote:does anyone have the update on the 12z euro. I'm thinking it's caved  to the gfs since nobody's posted it. hopefully everyone just outside enjoying the nice weather.

it shows several inches of snow for the NYC area on Wednesday.

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:28 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
algae888 wrote:does anyone have the update on the 12z euro. I'm thinking it's caved  to the gfs since nobody's posted it. hopefully everyone just outside enjoying the nice weather.

it shows several inches of snow for the NYC area on Wednesday.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:49 pm

With ratios prob being higher than 10:1 with this as the Euro has it its a nice moderate event (5-10/6-12" Poss).  I just wish we could get some agreement amongst the models.  Up to this point the Euro has been pretty darn consistent with this idea however.  And its Ens agree so going with that for the moment.  Havent been able to really analyze anything today in great detail.    
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 <a href= 
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Ecmwf_11" />

Subtract about 0.1-0.2" of QPF from this as it includes Sund/Monday as well.
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 <a href=02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Ecmwf_12" />

You can see just how cold 850mb would be as is depicted verbatim by todays Euro.  This could be at least 15:1 ratios.

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 <a href=02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 2 Ecmwf_13" />

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by mhbaben Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:09 pm

SNOW MAN
I have a place near you in Tobyhanna. I wanted to go up this past Friday and called Security there. They told me I shouldn't come as people that have tried have gotten stuck and had to be extricated. What does the snow pack look like now, after the rain and fog? Thanks
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:27 pm

Both upton and mt.holly say we will get at least a moderate snowfall Tuesday night and Wednesday. they are both basing there forecast on the euro as every other model says otherwise. as of now Long Island hasthe chance of a possible heavy snowfall.ratios will be high. I would love to see other models come in line with the euro so forecast is probably of low confidence.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:31 pm

18z gfs still out to sea however it did look a little more organized and stronger
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:48 pm

algae888 wrote:Both upton and mt.holly say we will get at least a moderate snowfall Tuesday night and Wednesday. they are both basing there forecast on the euro as every other model says otherwise. as of now Long Island hasthe chance of a possible heavy snowfall.ratios will be high. I would love to see other models come in line with the euro so forecast is probably of low confidence.

Whether it happens or not I still get butterflys when I read about Heavy snow potential for my area.

Upton:
AS THE PV DESCENDS INTO ONTARIO MID WEEK...A POTENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT...AND THEN
PASS OHD ON WED. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT...WITH AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW
PASSING JUST SE OF 40N/70W PER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF...CLOSE ENOUGH TO DELIVER AT LEAST A MEDIUM IMPACT SNOWFALL.
MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH VIA INTERACTION OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS...AND POSSIBLE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS IN
THE COLD AIR MASS...COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...SO WILL AT LEAST MENTION LONG ISLAND IN THE HWO
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WINDS DURING THE
EVENT DO NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE INTO WED
NIGHT AS SNOW ENDS...WITH WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY MEETING ADVY CRITERIA
WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC AS TEMPS THERE FALL TO NEAR ZERO.
EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ELSEWHERE WED NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 BELOW TOWARD MORNING.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:41 pm

Model update, 18z GFS took a slight step to the EURO, EURO has remained consistent along with the EPS run, virtually unchanged from yesterday 3-6" ish event, didn't look to closely into snow maps, DGEX, CMC, GFS, and JMA still say nope overall. Really pulling for the EURO here, we'll see.
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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:19 pm

mhbaben wrote:SNOW MAN
I have a place near you in Tobyhanna.  I wanted to go up this past Friday and called Security there.  They told me I shouldn't come as people that have tried have gotten stuck and had to be extricated.  What does the snow pack look like now, after the rain and fog?  Thanks

We still have about 14-16" on the ground. Sad  Before the fog (the real snow eater) and the little bit of rain (.23") plus the mild temps we had 24"- 30".
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:56 pm

Is sadly gone in some spots here and some spots still have snow, but the rain and warm weather have taken us well below a foot in shaded areas except for plowed or shoveled piles.  Hoping for a big on Wed/ Thurs.  And may that beast come back for Sat!
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 22, 2014 8:09 pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

NYZ078>081-177-179-231100-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
427 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO LONG ISLAND.
WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES.

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Post by HectorO Sat Feb 22, 2014 8:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Is sadly gone in some spots here and some spots still have snow, but the rain and warm weather have taken us well below a foot in shaded areas except for plowed or shoveled piles.  Hoping for a big on Wed/ Thurs.  And may that beast come back for Sat!

It's ok, I'm fine with the way the season has gone, Temps next week remind us that we are still in winter. I just hope we get no monster storms during the weekday because I'm suffering financially from them. Saturday is ok because I can meet up with my clients sunday or monday.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 22, 2014 9:55 pm

00z NAM shows nothing through hr 84,  18z GFS not much better, I am not sold on this or for that fact anymore storms this year.  It appears after this week we are in for prolonged warmup, at least per some sites like accu etc.  I hope I am wrong as I'd like to see one real big one but am not feeling too good about it yet.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:34 am

GFS has begun its northwest trend for this storm. Feeling strongly about a 3-6 inch event right now for our area.

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:59 am

Hey frank is the march 1st still a possibility
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:14 am

Euro came in weaker for Wednesday. Around 2-4 inches

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:15 am

Artechmetals wrote:Hey frank is the march 1st still a possibility

Yes it is

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Post by HeresL Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:06 am

Please send the March 1st storm away! I have 60 people coming to my house for my 40th birthday party... Too much planning and $ spent to be snowed out  😢
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