NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Page 3 of 4 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:33 am

Amy Freeze and TWC took this one as a joke already saying light snow maybe 1-2 at best but Amy added "unless something major changes,which i don't see happening"
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:25 pm

EURO looks further east and the GFS held its position as a scraper at best. CMC agrees with GFS in a very light event just snow showers. Losing confidence on this fast.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by aiannone Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:12 pm

Euro just came in with a moderate snow storm for the eastern areas of our region
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4253
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:20 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Euro just came in with a moderate snow storm for the eastern areas of our region

How far east, and how moderate?
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:41 pm

It's further east from the 0z run, 2-4" east, trending towards GFS, not surprised if it disappears completely or is reduced to scattered snow showers.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:44 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:It's further east from the 0z run, 2-4" east, trending towards GFS, not surprised if it disappears completely or is reduced to scattered snow showers.

The trend is not our friend
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:49 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:It's further east from the 0z run, 2-4" east, trending towards GFS, not surprised if it disappears completely or is reduced to scattered snow showers.

The trend is not our friend

What I've begun to notice is if the EURO has strong support from other models (CMC, UK, JMA, ect.) then it generally is a stronger side to bet on than the GFS/NAM. However, with this system it became the EURO vs. every other model, and in these cases the EURO ends up being too amped and begins making steps towards the GFS (as in with the 2/5 storm). So I'm really thinking the GFS is going to win this one. A little early to call it dead yet but it's coming quick.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:27 pm

Still thinking 3-6 inches for this event. Models should trend stronger through the week. I like the way H5 looks.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by aiannone Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:39 pm

New Upton Disco...
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR MID WEEK HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH...
WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY
TUE NIGHT...AND THEN PASSING OHD ON WED. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM IN RESPONSE TUE NIGHT ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...THEN INTENSIFY AND HEAD NE TO A POSITION
NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF 40N/70W BY 18Z WED. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS/GEFS/MEAN/ECMWF ARE ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR AND SUGGEST A MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH SOME 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...THINK THERE IS STILL
SOME WIGGLE ROOM FOR THE LOW TO TRACK UP TO 100 MILES FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD STILL BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MOST AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND A MODERATE SNOWFALL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT...FROM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON ON WED.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4253
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:30 pm

12z EURO was about 25 miles east of the 0z run, 2-4" for all of NJ, NYC and LI. Not overly impressed with this potential.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:36 pm

@Quietace wrote:Quickly down to 41 after a high of 60 earlier today.

Wrong thread haha.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by Quietace Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:39 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Quickly down to 41 after a high of 60 earlier today.

Wrong thread haha.
Im stupid. Clicked on the wrong thread lol. Fixed.

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:57 pm

GFS tonight showed 2-4 inches.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by algae888 Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS tonight showed 2-4 inches.

frank yes just saw that. hopefully the west and wetter trends will follow on other models and continue into tomorrow.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:13 pm

It's all about the PV. We need it to hold back a bit. Still possible

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by algae888 Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:52 pm

cmc came in further west but only a 1-2 inch snow. but 12z had no precip at all. small step in the right direction.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:01 am

Wow I didn't look at any models yesterday for two reasons.  The main reason was it was my daughters 4th B day and I had 25 people at my house all day, and two I was hoping to see a few models shift towards the Euro plus the Euro shift back a tad to the NW and amped to start the work week.  Well it looks like just the opposite occurred doesn't it?  Snow showers to minor event maybe.  The Ensemble means tell the story here IMHO.  Even the Euro Ensembles trended down on QPF.  All three operationals look very similar to their Ensembles.  I suppose a trend back to the NW is still possible, but a moderate event is looking less and less likely at the moment.  We shall see how the next 2 days plays out.  More than likely if we see a tick back to the N and W it would also mean a more amped soln to do so.  I think a trend towards 0.25-0.5 is achievable.  With good ratios that could be something, but to get all three models to get any wetter than that is a huge hill to climb.   For what its worth the NAM is in the same boat as the rest.
Euro Ens:
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 <a href=02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Euro_e10" />
GEM Ens:
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 <a href=02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Gem_en10" />
GEFS Ens:
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 <a href=02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Gfs_en10" />

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:08 am

NWS UPTON's Current analysis of this potential.

SFC HIGH PRES DEPARTS TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...DEEP H5 TROUGH
BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LOW THEN TRACKS TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY
CLUSTERED AND KEEPS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. SNOW
DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW SO FAR
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS NYC AND LONG
ISLAND...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A 1-3" SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LESS THAN THAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:37 am

06z GFS went back east. NAM shows next to nothing, not too excited about this.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by amugs Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:57 am

PV is suppressing our storm - to far south - SNJ will get a decent snowfall IMO.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:24 am

Mugs the PV is shearing apart the whole system, its not a question of a tight cutoff were on the northern side of, the whole western flank of the storm is essentially snow showers or light snow. Consistent moderate snow is well offshore concentrated right around the low. My inital call is most of NJ, HV, NYC and LI T-1" and SNJ and Delmarva 1-2", not a massive difference, we would need this inside the benchmark but it seems its gonna pass several hundred miles south
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by amugs Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:28 am

Tom - cold and dry pattern until this bad boy moves up a decent amount - NW that is.

I see what you are saying - oh well.

Can't believe Bill Evan saying snowy and the possibility of several inches to make Wed morning commute interesting at 6:45AM. Does he have a crystal ball model that none of us have??

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:34 am

I dont think so, I truly believe when TWC or other TV mets get on board a storm early it comes apart. Like the 2/9 blizzard TWC was hyping, the 4-8" they predicted for part 2 of 2/13 when they said 2-5 for part 1, the 3-5 they predicted for the 2/15 storm that ended up 1-2 in most places, only the storms they downplay like part 1 of 2/13 and 2/3 and 1/22 end up being big
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:35 am

And there it is in the flesh Mugs, 12z NAM went from snow showers at 6z to absolutely nothing 12z
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:00 pm

Bernie Rayno just posted a new video saying this may be the first time this winter an 'active-looking pattern' doesn't actually produce a storm. He thinks ingredients are there but now is not sure anything will pan out. I realllllly wanna hit a top 3 snowiest winter!
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/26 Snowstorm Potential

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 4 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum