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02/26 Snowstorm Potential

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:30 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno just posted a new video saying this may be the first time this winter an 'active-looking pattern' doesn't actually produce a storm. He thinks ingredients are there but now is not sure anything will pan out. I realllllly wanna hit a top 3 snowiest winter!

He's talking about this week.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:53 pm

Here's Bill's map...what is he seeing? Disruptive?

https://mobile.twitter.com/Evansweather/status/437902213290422272/photo/1/large?screen_name=Evansweather


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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:06 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno just posted a new video saying this may be the first time this winter an 'active-looking pattern' doesn't actually produce a storm. He thinks ingredients are there but now is not sure anything will pan out. I realllllly wanna hit a top 3 snowiest winter!

This means we will get it since he said we won't!! HAHAHA!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:25 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Here's Bill's map...what is he seeing? Disruptive?

https://mobile.twitter.com/Evansweather/status/437902213290422272/photo/1/large?screen_name=Evansweather


Every model is showing snow showers at most. They show some whacky futurecast that shows moderate snow in NJ, NYC, and LI, my guess it's the RPM. I don't know why mets use this over all the other guidance, it's foolish.
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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:45 pm

New Map from Upton
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 4 Stormt25
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:48 pm

Mets2695 wrote:New Map from Upton
02/26 Snowstorm Potential  - Page 4 Stormt25


They cut down, earlier today they had the 2-4" just on the south shore of LI, 1-2 on the rest of LI and NYC and the areas in NJ, T-1" only in the HV. Trending down.
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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:50 pm

Yupp. SREF mean is about a half inch.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:51 pm

yeah, not looking for much here...on to something else!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:03 pm

NAM shows about .6" of snow here, sadly thats a trend up from the 12z which had not a flake, next......
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:52 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno just posted a new video saying this may be the first time this winter an 'active-looking pattern' doesn't actually produce a storm. He thinks ingredients are there but now is not sure anything will pan out. I realllllly wanna hit a top 3 snowiest winter!

I still think early March produces. The PV right now is not in a good spot.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:52 pm

Looks like it is time to move on from this event...

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:37 pm

Can we call this a model bust?

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:12 pm

Agree Frank
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:48 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno just posted a new video saying this may be the first time this winter an 'active-looking pattern' doesn't actually produce a storm. He thinks ingredients are there but now is not sure anything will pan out. I realllllly wanna hit a top 3 snowiest winter!

He's talking about this week.

Yeah, I meant to say 'this week' cuz he didn't bring up beyond that. He did say, however, it's much harder for snow to accumulate late feb/early march with that sun angle -- so whatever falls has to fall fairly heavily.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 4:26 pm

NAM/SREF shows about .5" of snow in the area, don't be surprised to wake up to a thick coating up to an inch.
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Post by Sparky Sparticles Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:30 am

It's over here. About a half hour ago, bits of blue sky were visible between the heavy snowflakes, and suddenly the sun came out strong and the snow stopped altogether. It's only 27* so no melting today.

When's the next, Sunday evening?
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