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Official Long Range Thread 2.0

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:33 pm

I MADE A NEW THREAD TO DISCUSS THE SUN/MON THREAT SINCE THERE ARE SEVERAL THREATS IN THE LONG RANGE AND ITS NOW UNDER 5DAYS AWAY.  PLEASE BRING THE DISCUSSION FOR THE FEB9TH/10TH SYSTEM OVER TO THE NEW THREAD.  

THANKS

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:35 pm

Roger that, Doc 10-4
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:18 pm

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND BLACK ICE...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
STANDING WATER REFREEZES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

* TIMING...INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS
AND UNTREATED SURFACES.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:38 pm

GEFS have a +EPO, -NAO, +PNA, -AO look for mid-February. Nice look. Would definitely produce cold and continuous storms.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS have a +EPO, -NAO, +PNA, -AO look for mid-February. Nice look. Would definitely produce cold and continuous storms.

WOW - this would be Glorious!! If we get a S/W to dig and go neg in the south we may have ourselves a HECS after all.

Don't let your guard down Feb could be historic - potential is there with this set up - again POTENTIAL!!   Very Happy  Very Happy

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Feb 06, 2014 7:40 pm

amugs wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS have a +EPO, -NAO, +PNA, -AO look for mid-February. Nice look. Would definitely produce cold and continuous storms.

WOW - this would be Glorious!! If we get a S/W to dig and go neg in the south we may have ourselves a HECS after all.

Don't let your guard down Feb could be historic - potential is there with this set up - again POTENTIAL!!   Very Happy  Very Happy
We need the PNA to stay positive, so any shortwave can dig and amplify. Also a -NAO would be nice to slow everything down which would cause stronger phasing. That being said, I think we will see a MECS in due time. We just need to be patient for everything to line up properly.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 07, 2014 3:14 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS have a +EPO, -NAO, +PNA, -AO look for mid-February. Nice look. Would definitely produce cold and continuous storms.

That's just the GEFS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

AO does look to go negative though.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

Almost to positive!!!! Nope...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

These signals look meh at best. Not really screaming east coast bomb to me, although I think another couple moderate systems are certainly not out of the question.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 07, 2014 3:55 pm

NWS has snow chances dwindling down Sat. through Mon. AM at this juncture, but better news on next Weds-Thurs storm.Their model reading makes them think the storm is a little more off the coast giving areas N and W of the City all snow and City points East and South mix.Trend seems to be colder so we all may see snow with this.So far away but fun to see a possibility nonetheless!
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 07, 2014 7:05 pm

All the local Mets are already either righting this potential storm off or saying it will be rain. I just can't believe they say things like this when it days away. Unbelievable.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 07, 2014 7:19 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:All the local Mets are already either righting this potential storm off or saying it will be rain. I just can't believe they say things like this when it days away. Unbelievable.

If anything, one thing we have learned from this winter, sometimes you dont see SECS+ event until at most 2-3 days out. Take for example, the January 21st and February 3rd events. The EURO ensembles in general did not have us getting the snow we would get beyond 3 days prior to those events.

PS: I can't believe this thread now has 1,000 posts.

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 07, 2014 8:10 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:All the local Mets are already either righting this potential storm off or saying it will be rain. I just can't believe they say things like this when it days away. Unbelievable.

Even on the heavy meds I would not say this - HAHAHA!! Are they doing there forecasting from the new weather station for the east coast in the Denver garage?? I concur snow how and why would they even mention this at this point it will come to bite them once again - potentially, wish casting on my part I know but looking at the past patterns more so. Ahh the pro mets are here Snow - Ace, Frank, NJ, Doc, Doc Jr, Janet, Mets - me I am a MIT ( Met in Training)!!  Very Happy Very Happy 

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Post by Radz Sat Feb 08, 2014 6:20 am

There was a lot of talk around about the winter pattern lasting into March, now there are signs that it is easing and a mild stretch beginning to emerge last 2 weeks of February - i'm not ready for the snow train to dis-rail just yet.
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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Feb 08, 2014 8:49 am

Radz wrote:There was a lot of talk around about the winter pattern lasting into March, now there are signs that it is easing and a mild stretch beginning to emerge last 2 weeks of February - i'm not ready for the snow train to dis-rail just yet.

I've heard the same thing. Not looking forward to mild and possibly rainy weather. The Mets/Professors out At Penn State seem to think it will turn colder in March again. Their going to do a 30 day outlook next week on the 17th or the 21st. I'll be looking forward to hearing what they have to say.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:33 pm

This post is directed toward the weather pattern beginning the third week of February:

Our one constant signal this entire winter, the -EPO, is unfortunately breaking down. It remains unknown whether or not this is a temporary breakdown, but the sea surface temps have cooled a bit in the north Pac and that could lead to a negative correlation anomaly which would make it harder for the -EPO to redevelop.

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  B8444e855bf1e415740b878d2e2fd0e4_zps54bbdcc5

Guidance is also adamant that a large vortex will gather over Alaska which will suppress heights in the western US, leading to a. -PNA.

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  2d15eb0b65706ba0cc8faa78864f9a7b_zps301d97cb

With the zonal flow in the west due to a strong gradient between the Alaskan vortex and the suppressed southwestern ridge, this should allow warm Pacific air to spread eastward.

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  C4e67470e94f93c8d0909043759169b3_zps105ce2f9

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  A80f3b6611af7c06376a45ca1c293409_zps3bd9a21d

The GEFS confirm this notion of a +EPO/-PNA pattern developing by the third week of February. We should see a decent warm spell of temps in the 40's by then, isolated 50's possible. The question then becomes does the Pacific revert back to the negative EPO? One thing I should stress is the AO is likely to remain neutral to negative over this period. This may help avoid the way above normal departures, like 50's and 60's, but the NAO also looks to remain mainly positive.

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  3662ca4fb1df1c74176a3685dd78de8a_zpsbb0ef2c1

The euro OP features a lot of northern stream disturbances dropping into our area helping to keep the southeast ridge suppressed. But with the lack of Atlantic blocking and the unfavorable Pacific, I wouldn't bet on one of those waves amplifying off our coast to bring something significant. If you cherish this cold, enjoy it this week because I think by next week we moderate a good bit. It remains unknown whether or not a winter pattern returns. The Stratosphere has not helped, this far.


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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Feb 08, 2014 7:34 pm

UGH ! Sounds very discouraging Frank.  Sad 
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 09, 2014 6:49 am

Frank's analysis confirms what Accuweather has been saying about a warmup the  last two weeks of Feb.Looks like the pattern is changing.Mon and Thurs may be the last snow chances for a while.March has been mentioned to be cold again, but you are starting to get behind the eight ball for snow with longer sun plus higher angle.

Just hoping it is a slow, gradual warmup with no 2-3 inch rainstorms.My gutters are 6 inches of solid ice plus the storm drains are all clogged the same.A big rainstorm would be a disaster right now.
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Post by Radz Sun Feb 09, 2014 6:58 am

docstox12 wrote:Frank's analysis  confirms what Accuweather has been saying about a warmup the  last two weeks of Feb.Looks like the pattern is changing.Mon and Thurs may be the last snow chances for a while.March has been mentioned to be cold again, but you are starting to get behind the eight ball for snow with longer sun plus higher angle.

Just hoping it is a slow, gradual warmup with no 2-3 inch rainstorms.My gutters are 6 inches of solid ice plus the storm drains are all clogged the same.A big rainstorm would be a disaster right now.

Thursday looks very promising, one more big snow before the warm up would be nice! And i agree totally, last thing we need is a big rain on top of the ice- would be a less than favorable outcome...
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 09, 2014 8:11 am

docstox12 wrote:Frank's analysis  confirms what Accuweather has been saying about a warmup the  last two weeks of Feb.Looks like the pattern is changing.Mon and Thurs may be the last snow chances for a while.March has been mentioned to be cold again, but you are starting to get behind the eight ball for snow with longer sun plus higher angle.

Just hoping it is a slow, gradual warmup with no 2-3 inch rainstorms.My gutters are 6 inches of solid ice plus the storm drains are all clogged the same.A big rainstorm would be a disaster right now.

The last few model runs are not impressed with a warmup. A lot of northern stream disturbances dropping into the area keeping a trough mainly in place. Another snowstorm threat possible on the 17th.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 09, 2014 10:48 am

docstox12 wrote:Frank's analysis  confirms what Accuweather has been saying about a warmup the  last two weeks of Feb.Looks like the pattern is changing.Mon and Thurs may be the last snow chances for a while.March has been mentioned to be cold again, but you are starting to get behind the eight ball for snow with longer sun plus higher angle.

Just hoping it is a slow, gradual warmup with no 2-3 inch rainstorms.My gutters are 6 inches of solid ice plus the storm drains are all clogged the same.A big rainstorm would be a disaster right now.

One word of caution there Doc which Frank alluded to in his last post, Accuweather 15 day has been hinting at a warmup for days 11-15 since the end of January.  So we are already into the period they were calling for a warmup back on January 28.  Other than one day, superbowl Sunday there has been no warmup so I take them with a grain of salt.

Obviously if they keep calling for a warmup in days 11-15 they will be right eventually but so far it hasn't happened.

BTW- I never look at their extended beyond 15 days, I consider it an utter waste of time. To many variables to be putting out a 16-45 day forecast IMO.

NYC 17 Biggest Seasonal Snowfalls
Rank Amount Year & Date(s)

1 75.6 1995-96
2 63.2 1947-48
3 61.9 2010-11
4 60.4 1922-23
5 60.3 1872-73
6 57.8 1874-75
7 57.4 2013-14
8 55.9 1898-99
9 54.7 1960-61
10 53.4 1993-94
11 53.2 1906-07
12 52.0 1933-34
13 51.5 1966-67
14 51.4 2009-10
15 50.7 1915-16
15 50.7 1916-17
15 50.7 1977-78


Updated February 28, 2014

With some snow on the way, hopefully, for March 3, also my daughters birthday, New York City needs 3.0 inches of snow to break into the top five all time and 6.0 inches to takeover the number two spot. IMO it's still too far away (18.4 inches) to even discuss getting the all-time record.


Update February 23, 2014

As we near the end of February I wanted to take a close look at previous winter seasons in New York City to see if they could provide any insight on what our chances are of breaking the seasonal snowfall record.

To do this I first took a look at the 17 seasons including this one that have seen more than 50 inches of snow. I was hoping to find some kind of similar pattern that could give me an idea how much snow we can expect in March and April this year.

Looking at the list below I marked in red three seasons that have striking similarities to the monthly snowfall totals and pattern, that we are experiencing this current winter season. All three years saw above normal snowfall in December but not excessive amounts. In addition all three seasons had January and February snowfall totals that were close to or exceeding twice to three times the normal monthly total. These three seasons where the winters of 1922/23, 1993/94, and 1995/96.
Official Long Range Thread 2.0  50_inc34

What these three seasons also had in common, was above normal snowfall in March. The average was 10.0 inches of snow from March 1 on, which is a little less than double the monthly normals. Each of the 3 had at least 8 inches of snow in March with the winter of 95/96 having had 13.2 inches with an additional 0.7 in April. I might also add the 0.7 inches in April could have easily been several inches in New York City. This was an April nor'easter in which New York City sat right on the dividing line between rain and snow. It actually snowed 2 to 3 inches at one point during the evening and was washed away by rain later in the night and that total was never counted, what a shock.

With five days left in February we stand at 57.1 inches for the season, 18.6 inches from breaking the seasonal snowfall record and 6.2 inches from moving into second place. That gives me a fair amount of confidence that we will see at least 8 inches of snow in New York City after February ends just because the 3 previous seasons most similar to ours saw at least that. Since we still have five days left in February and all of March I believe as Frank stated a week ago our chances for the second spot are at least 80% based on past historical patterns.

But what are our chances of getting the 18.6 inches of snow we currently need to break the seasonal snowfall record? If we average the 16, 50 inch seasons before this, they averaged 10.7 inches from March 1 on, similar to the 10.0 average of the 3 seasons most similar to ours. This wouldn't do it.

Some of it will depend on how we enter the month of March and if any snow falls in these last five days of February. If we can enter March needing 13 or less inches of snow to break the record I'd say looking at the past history we have a 33%-38% or so probability to do it. Why, because 6 of the 16 seasons, including 1 of the 3 seasons most similar to ours, 1995/96, had 13.9 inches of snow or more from March 1 on.

If we begin March needing 17 or more inches I believe the probability is much less. Although five of the 16 seasons did see 17 or more inches of snow none of them really had a very similar monthly distribution of snow like we've seen this season and saw in the three similar seasons. Actually four of those five saw abnormally high April snowfalls something we could really not count on in New York City, and haven't really seen in New York City since the winter of 2002/03.

In conclusion if we could get 6 inches or so of snow this last week of February I believe we will go into March with a pretty good shot, if you think 40% or so is a pretty good shot, of breaking the seasonal snowfall record. If we begin March 1 needing 17 or more inches of snow that probability drops to below 20%, probably closer to 10% if we discount the high April totals from some of the pre 1920 years.

Three to five inches on Wednesday would be a big boost.

This also is the first time in 145 years of record-keeping that New York City has had three seasonal snowfalls above 50 inches in a five-year period. Which is just another reason why I laugh at the news media that keeps saying that we haven't seen a winter like this in years. Granted so far it's a great winter, but I've often cited on this forum,that you only have to go back three years to the period between December 26, 2010 and January 27, 2011 that New York City received 56 inches of snow in that 33 day period. As great as this last 10 days have been, we still haven't come close to that. Of course we have another 23 days to go to match that period and it doesn't seem impossible either.

Anyway for you numbers people out there like me, or the snow lovers that like to break records, I will be adding to this thread as the season progresses and hopefully we will be adding some significant new totals. I'll be updating the lists and as soon as I figure out, or if someone can tell me how to post graphics and charts from Excel, I will be posting those on here too.

I would also like to add to this thread, select members that have been keeping accurate seasonal totals so far this year and keep that list too. If you would like to be on that list, just send me a private message with your totals so far this season, not each separate storm, just your seasonal total so far. Also add to that your town, state, and approximate location in your state. If this pattern does continue through most of March, it does appear very likely that some, if not several areas on our forum will get near or over 100 inches of snow this year.

Updated February 26, 2014

0.2 inches of snow in NYC's CPK today. It's good to know they at least counted it. Every little bit helps when you're trying to break into the top 5.

Updated February 25, 2014

No updates, I just changed the title of the topic because I'm starting to feel I jinxed the rest of the winter by starting this thread. Hopefully the name change will reverse our fortunes. Going for the gold may have been putting too much pressure on the remaining winter.

Cold weather is fine but I would like to see snow again, soon. Yes I do realize it is a silly superstition.

Updated February 18, 2014

NYC adds another 1.5 inches today bringing the seasonal snowfall to 57.1 inches so far this season, 7th on the all time list.
3rd place which we achieved only 3 years ago is now a moderate snowfall (4.9 inches) away.
We need another 18.6 inches to set the record, which is still going to be tough to get to IMO, but I hope I'm wrong.

As of February 16, 2014

What has also made this winter so unique is that even though we've all achieved our totals in different ways everywhere from the central New Jersey coast, to Southwest Connecticut, to Long Island to the Hudson Valley to Eastern Pennsylvania all seem to have received between 50 to 75 inches of snow so far this year. It's very rare in any season for such a diverse geographical area like ours to have such uniform amounts.

As an example last year where I am in the Hudson Valley, which geographically is only 43 miles due north of New York City received 65 inches of snow while New York City received 26 inches. Contrast that to this season where I have 67.4 inches of snow so far and New York City has received 55.6 inches. Parts of Long Island have had more snow than we've had in the Hudson Valley, and places along the central New Jersey coast and northern New Jersey south of here are not far behind or close to or exceeded those totals.

I don't like to jump the gun and call this a historic winter yet, but if it does continue to achieve through the next four weeks, we may be calling it that. Instead of always referring to the winter of 95/96 as the standard bearer as all of us on this forum over 30 years old often do, with any luck next year we might be referring to this winter as that standard bearer. Let's see what Tuesday brings, and the rest of the winter bring, and let's hope that like 2010/11, the pattern doesn't abruptly turn against us.


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Post by amugs Sun Feb 09, 2014 2:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Frank's analysis  confirms what Accuweather has been saying about a warmup the  last two weeks of Feb.Looks like the pattern is changing.Mon and Thurs may be the last snow chances for a while.March has been mentioned to be cold again, but you are starting to get behind the eight ball for snow with longer sun plus higher angle.

Just hoping it is a slow, gradual warmup with no 2-3 inch rainstorms.My gutters are 6 inches of solid ice plus the storm drains are all clogged the same.A big rainstorm would be a disaster right now.

The last few model runs are not impressed with a warmup. A lot of northern stream disturbances dropping into the area keeping a trough mainly in place. Another snowstorm threat possible on the 17th.

The Ol' PD storm part three everyone!! We are due for one.  The warm looks to be normal temps and slightly above - if we get a good dose of snow Thurs then the snowpack will affect this as well IMO. The Northern Vorts keep rotating around the ULL in PAC NW so that will help with the cold air being sent our way.

Accuweather has become Innacuweather this winter to me.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Feb 09, 2014 3:20 pm

Ah Mugs we can only hope !
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 10, 2014 6:41 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Frank's analysis  confirms what Accuweather has been saying about a warmup the  last two weeks of Feb.Looks like the pattern is changing.Mon and Thurs may be the last snow chances for a while.March has been mentioned to be cold again, but you are starting to get behind the eight ball for snow with longer sun plus higher angle.

Just hoping it is a slow, gradual warmup with no 2-3 inch rainstorms.My gutters are 6 inches of solid ice plus the storm drains are all clogged the same.A big rainstorm would be a disaster right now.

The last few model runs are not impressed with a warmup. A lot of northern stream disturbances dropping into the area keeping a trough mainly in place. Another snowstorm threat possible on the 17th.

Looks like you are right on,Frank.As Mugsy said "Inacuweather" had Henry and another met hyping a big warm up for the last two weeks of Feb. Now I see upper 20's for my area after the storm on Thursday!

Seriously giving thought to just where the heck I am going to put all this snow if we get a big one later this week.There has been no melting at all the past week.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:18 am

Doc:

That's just one of the things you have to love about snow that has a high liquid content, it doesn't compress like those dry high ratios knows we've been getting before the last week. There are less air pockets to fill in and the initial weight of the heavy snow does all the compression in the beginning. These snows also become harder to melt because of the high liquid content and as stated they compress much less.

I hardly notice any change in the snowpack, the last several days despite several sunny days. Of course it hasn't hurt that the temperature hasn't made it past the high 20s, since the snow fell. But if you remember after that very high ratio 10 to 12 inch snow that everyone got at the end of January, except me, the snow settled and compressed from 12 inches to 4 to 6 inches in the matter of a couple days despite the cold temperatures. If we get another high liquid content snow on top of this, hopefully on Thursday,the snowpack may be here till the end of March, I can only hope
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:07 am

Looks like models are coming in line with agreement warm up starting around the 18th or 19th. Most have it lasting until around the 25th with some significant above normal temperatures which look to peak between the 20 and 24th.

Looking at the Euro Weeklies and that came out yesterday and the GEFS reinforces the idea that by the 25th, we look to have a favorable setup for a active pattern. And it looks like at least late February to early march, we can still have chances for accumulating snows with below normal temperatures.
Euro Ensembles show a Positive PNA with the PV situated over the Hudson bay with a trough displaced into the east.  
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:13 am

Yup...winter is not over yet. March might come roaring in like a Lion. Lets see what things look like 5 days from now and see if they still have the same idea.

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