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Official Long Range Thread 2.0

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:17 am

Past couple GFS runs show a snow to ice to rain scenario.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:21 am

Hey NJ, 12z GFS shows what could be a major ice storm for coastal and just inaland areas (like myself) for 3rd timeframe, a bit concerning but still to far out. Here is latest image I got so far on GFS. Looks like some snow first.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

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Post by RJB8525 Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:23 am

TWC has been flip flopping yesterdaey they had plain snow for Monday now Today they have rain for Mon. abc7 keeps talking about the possible coastal storm for the past few days
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:25 am

12z GFS shows a snow to frz to snow event, not good. But plenty of time to change.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:36 am

Jmanley your right, I posted that before the storm finished on the run, thought for sure it was gonna cut but confluence shunted it due east, looks like a lot of precip, will look into it more when I get home
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:42 am

From what I can see from the models on my phone its an inch or snow to zr or ip everyone NW of 95 to 3-5" of snow at end, long duration ice storm, I dont think any of us want to see this verify
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:47 am

12z gfs has a weaker low and is further s/e than 00z. 00z gfs and euro ensembles are s/e of OP run. what concerns me about todays runs and the last several storms is that they have trended weaker and less qpf as we get closer to the event.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:23 pm

A thing to note is it appears timing has shifted into a Sunday afternoon into Monday kind of idea. Good news for my Tuesday flight if its true.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:41 pm

The storm early next week HAS to be watched closely. We could be in a scenario where long-duration light to moderate snow falls due to strong energy to our south and a strong HP to our north. Right along the gradient, snow could break out. Overrunning snow for hours according to the 12z GGEM

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:41 pm

12z GGEM shows at least 8+ inches of snow probably 12+

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:42 pm

Snow from Monday to Wednesday on the GGEM with 12+ inches of snow. Wow

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:46 pm

How about coastal areas frank
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:56 pm

The thing that concerns me is that this setup typically doesn't spell big snow in the I-95 corridor, any of the past storms you can see usually leads to WWA invading most of the area prompting a changeover to a mix or plain rain in areas. That's not to say it wont happen but at 120 hours out it's a perilous setup and I can see it trending north. That in mind I am still interested it just proceed with caution. I'll be more comfortable in a solution by Friday and even then there's at least a day for wiggle room.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:07 pm

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 6 Post-910-0-24978900-1393351335

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 6 Post-910-0-24978900-1393351335

2 feet plus IMBY? I hate these maps especially this far out, because when the storm doesn't produce amounts anywhere near this or trends to ice or rain people will be disappointed.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:13 pm

E-Wall View of CMC.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

I don't need to tell Frank this but people viewing, please do not take it verbatim. It will change a lot. Just one solution in a jar of about 50 right now, as the days go on we will be able to take more and more solutions out of that jar but as of now, it's just potential.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:32 pm

Here is CMC maps if you want to see - I will watch carefully like Frank said and want to see this solution come to fruition Friday and Saturday - this will change many times between now and then especially trying to get the position of the PV which is KEY for us with this storm. MJO in phase 8 (going to phase 1?) STJ is ramping up and Mr. PV is sitting to our North with the -EPO and PNA (is it going neg, neutral or staying in a 2+ state?
 Next week things get very interesting not only the first part but the later part as well IMO.

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 6 Post-90-0-08475300-1393347817
 
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
 
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif
 
Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 6 P6_GZ_D5_PN_168_0000" />


Last edited by amugs on Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:54 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:33 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:E-Wall View of CMC.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

I don't need to tell Frank this but people viewing, please do not take it verbatim. It will change a lot. Just one solution in a jar of about 50 right now, as the days go on we will be able to take more and more solutions out of that jar but as of now, it's just potential.

The first person to look at this map and say, wow we have a chance to get over 2 feet, thereby ruining any chances for this to ever happen, should be suspended from the board for 1 week. IMO

Yes I'm kidding, sort of.
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Post by SNOW MAN Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:39 pm

WOW ! We have a chance at getting two feet of snow ! LOL !
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Post by mako460 Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:40 pm

You're banned, SNOWMAN!!!!!!!! LOL.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:40 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:E-Wall View of CMC.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

I don't need to tell Frank this but people viewing, please do not take it verbatim. It will change a lot. Just one solution in a jar of about 50 right now, as the days go on we will be able to take more and more solutions out of that jar but as of now, it's just potential.

The first person to look at this map and say, wow we have a chance to get over 2 feet, thereby ruining any chances for this to ever happen, should be suspended from the board for 1 week. IMO

Yes I'm kidding, sort of.

Yea, we're already seeing the IMBY questions, not going to name names. Again, people, ignore clown maps or P-types or anything, look at the upper level pattern and low pressure track trends over the past few days. DO NOT WORRY ABOUT P-TYPE, AMOUNTS, QPF OR ANYTHING ELSE. Just look for trends ATM.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:40 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:WOW ! We have a chance at getting two feet of snow ! LOL !

Excellent Snowman.  lol! 
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Post by SNOW MAN Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:43 pm

Well I guess I'm banned now, so I'm taking my snowball and I'm going home. Sad 
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:45 pm

From a poster on another forum, sums up my thoughts perfectly

There could be many arguments at this point running for and against a more suppressed solution... at this stage we simply don't have enough information to determine which will verify, especially with the key players way out in no-data land. Using model trend-based arguments, it could be said that this will be more suppressed due to the models recently overestimating the strength of shortwaves and trending weaker/suppressed in the shorter range, along with stronger confluence than modeled, while it could also be argued that a more amplified solution would verify given the upper level SW-flow with the PV/baroclinic zone retreating northward, and also taking into consideration that the model guidance was in pretty good agreement of a major I-95 snowstorm for 2/5 nearly a week out before trending north and warmer.

Realistically, we don't have enough information to make a solid call at this stage. The whole purpose of forecasting though is not to simply say "we don't know so why bother speculating" or "models are useless, why should we even use them", which could be considered the equivalent of giving up. At this point I have high confidence in precipitation falling in parts of the region, snow included due to the antecedent air mass, but I can't say much more than that with confidence; my early thinking based on the upper level flow and robust southern stream would be towards a further north track than the 12z GFS/CMC, but as with every other forecast it could change quite a bit this far out.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:59 pm

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 6 1625670_355230707952790_309795817_n
 
Later Next Week - would be nice if it verified but toooooo far out- IMAGINE if they both verified as per the CMC - 2 MECS - bookend storms - they would crush the March snowfall records for some if not all! We can only wish, hope and pray!

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