Re: Official Long Range Thread 2.0

[NjWeatherGuy]

From a poster on another forum, sums up my thoughts perfectly

There could be many arguments at this point running for and against a more suppressed solution... at this stage we simply don't have enough information to determine which will verify, especially with the key players way out in no-data land. Using model trend-based arguments, it could be said that this will be more suppressed due to the models recently overestimating the strength of shortwaves and trending weaker/suppressed in the shorter range, along with stronger confluence than modeled, while it could also be argued that a more amplified solution would verify given the upper level SW-flow with the PV/baroclinic zone retreating northward, and also taking into consideration that the model guidance was in pretty good agreement of a major I-95 snowstorm for 2/5 nearly a week out before trending north and warmer.

Realistically, we don't have enough information to make a solid call at this stage. The whole purpose of forecasting though is not to simply say "we don't know so why bother speculating" or "models are useless, why should we even use them", which could be considered the equivalent of giving up. At this point I have high confidence in precipitation falling in parts of the region, snow included due to the antecedent air mass, but I can't say much more than that with confidence; my early thinking based on the upper level flow and robust southern stream would be towards a further north track than the 12z GFS/CMC, but as with every other forecast it could change quite a bit this far out.

[amugs]

 
Later Next Week - would be nice if it verified but toooooo far out- IMAGINE if they both verified as per the CMC - 2 MECS - bookend storms - they would crush the March snowfall records for some if not all! We can only wish, hope and pray!

[amugs]

  SNOW and CP - you would crush if these storms verified as per the maps!!

[amugs]

SNOW WEENIE PORN if I have ever seen one - HAHAHA!!

[SNOW MAN]

 
Later Next Week - would be nice if it verified but toooooo far out- IMAGINE if they both verified as per the CMC - 2 MECS - bookend storms - they would crush the March snowfall records for some if not all! We can only wish, hope and pray!

I will do all three, wish, hope, pray and even rub my lucky rabbits foot.

[amugs]

SNOW - Me too - let's see if Mother Nature comes to me in dream this time like she did for the Thursday 2-13 storm!!

[amugs]

So we have the GGEM and now ECMWF showing MECS type solutions for this event. Still a long way off though, but it's clear we have major potential on the field. We have to see how the field plays out.

Cold to very Cold March 5th - ?? as the arctic air comes back to pay us a visit

Long way to go but within the 5-6 day range - thank god it isn't the 7-10 day range - KEEP TEH FAITH MY SNOW WEENIE"S!! Better start Sunday night after my Rangers vs Bruins game at the Garden.

[Frank_Wx]

Going to try and find time, maybe Thursday afternoon, to put out a blog. By then, we should know much more about this storm. Right now, I think the GGEM is too agressive, but the latest EURO is still 10+ inches of snow for us as well. My fear is the overrunning precip may be overdone right now on the models and we won't get the bulk of our precip until the surface low tracks south of us.

[Frank_Wx]

Moral of the story is, spring is NOWHERE to be found. Even after the storm next week, it remains cold.

[jmanley32]

Holy crap on that Canadian! 30+ inches of snow in NYC! Wouldnt that be a HECS? I missed a bit of stuff is there now multiple chances of storms from 3-7th?

[Frank_Wx]

I think these last two days we have been wondering why the models have looked so dry / cold in the mid to long range with the MJO advancing into favorable phases. It looks like today they have finally come to that realization and the energy entering the west this weekend is actually fairly impressive. Determining where the gradient sets up will be the biggest task. It could initially start to our north (so areas north of NYC see overrunning snow) but then gradually sink south once the High shifts further east. Hopefully the overrunning precip. is not being over-modeled, and it very well may be. If so, we will have to conform to whatever precip falls from the surface low that develops near TX. In my opinion, given the confluence to our north, I do not see it cutting west. The solution we saw from the EURO/GGEM today is much more likely. Hopefully it does not track too far south. As long as the PV stays in a favorable position.

[essexcountypete]

This image is already floating around on FB  

[jmanley32]

NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

JMAN Banned, one week. JK

[jmanley32]

essex how do you guys find this out? Are there specific people you watch that show this stuff? WAY to early to put this out. I can't say anything else, except one question would if this played out(pray) would it be from one storm or two? It absolutely crushes my area. I saw the note about banning so not speculating anything at this time no jink, and I am not saying anything to anyone until Frank gives me a good confidence. But poeple must know because people at work are talking about a major snowstorm next week and usually they are clueless.

[jmanley32]

CP I didn't make any speculations! And not fair I been away just read that after I posted, lol. What can we say about this at this point?

[jmanley32]

Curious what did the Euro and GFS show for the same time period? Does anyone have those images?

[amugs]

KOD - GOD DAM IT JB!!!

[jmanley32]

Well no wonder! Bastardi posted it on his twitter! This is the Euro? I thought canadian was CMC. I'm confused cuz he says Euro.

[amugs]

EURO!!

[amugs]

Well no wonder! Bastardi posted it on his twitter!  This is the Euro?  I thought canadian was CMC. I'm confused cuz he says Euro.

No I just posted the Euro map - just posting what that bafoon JB started - here we frickin' go again feb 5th - smuck!!

[jmanley32]

hey mugs thx for Euro, GFS I saw shows about the same. And yes to JB, he should not have done that alot of people believe in him!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Well no wonder! Bastardi posted it on his twitter!  This is the Euro?  I thought canadian was CMC. I'm confused cuz he says Euro.

J Mann:

Actually they both show significant snow for next week, the Canadian more so than the euro. But they are both MECS. If the Canadian were to be taken literally it's an HECS.

We can only hope

[jmanley32]

I got it mugs his post was kinda confusing and unecessary!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

As you said mugs, KOD thanks a lot Bastardi

[jmanley32]

CP yeah honestly, I am have not been going on as much and it seems to have been working in my favor, I was very surprised to come on and see all this and am not getting hyped about anything, YET give it 3-4 days with similar trends then I will get excited but still as when it was first posted wx weenie porn lol. Only we would understand that one lol. But still 5th is 7-8 days away so plenty of time to watch.

[Math23x7]

With the storm for next week, there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding it. Now, the 10:1 ratio goes both ways with the potential snowstorm next week. On one hand, the snowfall totals could be lowered if it mixes with sleet or freezing rain or if temperatures are marginal with the March sun angle, which could very well be the case. On the other hand, the snowfall totals could be higher than the maps with cold temperatures. Hour 150 of the 2/25 12Z EURO OP had 6-hour qpf totals of 0.5" for NYC with 0.7" just to the north of the city. But the surface temperatures remain between ~15-25 degrees during those 6 hours. So that would be 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios in the Hudson valley region. Of course, the 0C 850mb temperature line on this run is over central NJ and the south shore of LI so this storm is no where near set in stone yet.

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