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Official Long Range Thread 2.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:41 am

GEFS say winter returns in 10 days

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:20 pm

The Mets/Professors at Penn State are in agreement also. Tonight they said it will become milder for a short period but Winter is not over yet as they put it. Said there could be a significant Winter storm around Feb 26-28. We shall see.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 15, 2014 10:00 am

Beautiful fantasy MECS at the end of the month for us on the 06z GFS.

The 6Z is also not as impressed with the warm up next week, still 40's for 4 days or so, but the 50's thing may not ever materialize.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 15, 2014 10:25 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Beautiful fantasy MECS at the end of the month for us on the 06z GFS.

The 6Z is also not as impressed with the warm up next week, still 40's for 4 days or so, but the 50's thing may not ever materialize.

Gotta love the 3 feet IMBY. This is all snow everywhere. God I hate fantasy storms.

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Gfs_3_14

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:01 am

Tom, 

These are like the dreams of  Farah Faucet back in the day for me - Tantalizing - HAHAHA!!

Mugs

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 15, 2014 5:06 pm

I plan on releasing a long range blog sometime next week. Moral of the story: winter is not over

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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Feb 15, 2014 5:31 pm

Sounds like good news Frank. Looking forward to your thought's on the rest of this incredible Winter.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 15, 2014 5:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I plan on releasing a long range blog sometime next week. Moral of the story: winter is not over

Awesome! We've got a ways to go but I'd love to see some records broken, or at least break into the top 5.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:08 pm

GEFS/GFS and EURO  say Frank is correct - take a break for a few days and then we reload - trying to show the -NAO block that has eluded us all winter with a spike in the PNA  and reload of the EPO (almost wrote EPA) - HAHAHA!!

Winter of 93-94 everyone and SST are at 10 year lows so that will help as well!

Winds off the ocean for SNJ will be brutal this late winter/early spring IMO - 28-33* ocean temps right now - holy jesus!

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:13 pm

EURO says pattern remains colder meanwhile the latest GFS retreats the cold air to the north, well north and basically shuts off the cold air for the entire CONUS. After the next storm the pattern is TBD.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif (stable)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml (could go either way)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif (improving)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml (improving)

Pattern theoretically is getting more favorable for snow, however we are getting more and more into the increased sun angle and climo slowly getting more unfavorable for snow. Will the signals overcome this? We'll see.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:19 pm

Euro - looks like our friends the PNA as we torch next week and then the cold air returns at the end of the month and IMO a storm looks good from the 25/26th on to 3/1 - I don't want one Sun 3/2 - I have awesome Ranger tix for my my family against the Boston Bruins who I hate with a passion next to the Flyers - Mother Nature do not do this to me please - snow that night late = I'll stay in the city!!

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 J6smxl

and then we get back to business

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Fay1qs


Last edited by amugs on Sun Feb 16, 2014 12:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 11:36 am

GFS and EURO both have a storm signal towards the end of the month, that being said it's in that range where it could be lost indefinitely in the coming days.
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:48 pm

the one thing that I noticed on most models is that the warm up this week will be short lived. plus I do not think temps make it above the 40's and by next Monday the 24th we are back to below normal temps. for how long we shall see.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:19 pm

@algae888 wrote:the one thing that I noticed on most models is that the warm up this week will be short lived.  plus I do not think temps make it above the 40's and by next  Monday the 24th we are back to below normal temps. for how long we shall see.

I hopes o cause the model runs last night were showing us getting into the mid 40's by thurs and fri and maybe hitting 50 or low 50's by sat and then like you said POP that bubble bursts and back to the cold and stormy winter we are all used to by now! On another note how did the proposal go?

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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:32 pm

Amugs Its gotten very cloudy here I see some light snow or flurries coming from e/pa nw/nj Is there a U/L tough coming through?? Im couple miles from Alex Thx

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:54 pm

It's a very weak clipper and the mountains will eat up 99% of the moisture, can't rule out a flurry getting through though.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 16, 2014 4:08 pm

@amugs wrote:
@algae888 wrote:the one thing that I noticed on most models is that the warm up this week will be short lived.  plus I do not think temps make it above the 40's and by next  Monday the 24th we are back to below normal temps. for how long we shall see.

I hopes o cause the model runs last night were showing us getting into the mid 40's by thurs and fri and maybe hitting 50 or low 50's by sat and then like you said POP that bubble bursts and back to the cold and stormy winter we are all used to by now! On another note how did the proposal go?

it went very well. I actually did it last night. we had an emergency on Friday so couldn't do it then. after I got on my knee and proposed I think she went into shock. it took her five minutes to finally shout YES YES YES.lol it was so cold and the wind was blowing the snow around. but to me that's perfect.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 5:19 pm

18z GFS says 55 baby.

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 16, 2014 6:18 pm

my forecast for week ahead.

Tonight A slight chance of snow showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 15. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Washington's Birthday Sunny, with a high near 30. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph.
Monday Night Snow, mainly after 3am. Low around 26. Light east wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tuesday Rain and snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain. High near 39. Southeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south after midnight.
Wednesday A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46.
Thursday Night A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 60%.Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.


if it rains Friday take 5* off of that high temp. this weeks temps are just going to be near normal. our temps are supposed to be in the mid 40's this time of year. so a warm up yes but just back to near normal or slightly above.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 6:27 pm

GFS has been consistently warmer than the EURO due to the GLC taking a sharper north track and raising heights along the east, fast. EURO has mid-40s as the storm takes a more progressive SW to NE track, GFS showing 60s in central NJ, not good, will cause snow to melt too fast which could cause flooding.

Look at this, over 4" of liquid equivalent snowcover in NNJ, NEPA and lower HV.

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Swe_no10

GFS Forecast Temps

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Captur10
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Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Empty February 26-29 Possible Winter Storm

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:16 pm

Figured I'd make a thread about this long range possibility. As we all know we have about a week of above-average temperatures and two cutter type storms in this time frame. The EURO has been further south with the cutters meaning more average temperatures but just beyond this is when it looks like it may get interesting. Below are the teleconnections and in parenthesis next to it I say whether they stay the same, improve, or worsen relative to general snow favorability. Keep in mind we have managed to get several impressive storms this year and years past with unfavorable signals so do not interpret them as the single defining factor whether we get snow (a mistake Henry M constantly makes).

NAO (generally looks to improve towards neutral)

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Nao_sp10

AO (wild spread, average out and stays pretty much where it is in neutral)

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Ao_spr10

PNA (looks to improve and creep towards neutral/positive in long range)

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Pna_sp10

MJO  (looking very good, phase 7 is where we want it)

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Ensplu10

Now onto models, GEFS have the storm signal (look at the red shading offshore)

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Screen71

OP GFS

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Screen72

ECMWRF

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Screen73

ECM EPS Control

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Screen74

Now of course, this is way too far in the future to take seriously. I like the fact the teleconnections are improving and the storm signal is there, that is really all we can ask for at this point. It is very possible this drops off the face of the earth in the coming days, let's monitor the threat without getting blinded by what OP runs show and clown maps because that is just setting up for failure.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:20 pm

Tom I am going to move this into the long range thread. I really do not prefer to make storm threads with something "possible" over 10 days out. Once we get closer and the threat gains credibility, we can make a thread.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:22 pm

Fair enough, it's your forum. If it's still there in the next few days and beyond I recommend a move into its own thread.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:24 pm

This is a fair look. Big ridge in the west, trough in the east. Granted, there is no blocking. But usually it gradually shows up. Some people say we have seen no blocking this year, while the NAO may not have been truly negative, we have still seen instances of blocking to our north in other ways from different anomalies.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:This is a fair look. Big ridge in the west, trough in the east. Granted, there is no blocking. But usually it gradually shows up. Some people say we have seen no blocking this year, while the NAO may not have been truly negative, we have still seen instances of blocking to our north in other ways from different anomalies.

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 2 Test8

Looking at that the EURO looks like a better setup, more amped ridge in the west and trough axis further west and sharper.
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