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Official Long Range Thread 2.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:29 pm

Yea definitely. Trough in the east on the GFS is broad and would result in storms scooting out to sea. GFS is a progressive bias model anyway, so the fact it shows this in the long range does not bother me much.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:32 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Yea definitely. Trough in the east on the GFS is broad and would result in storms scooting out to sea. GFS is a progressive bias model anyway, so the fact it shows this in the long range does not bother me much.

Yea not too worried. I find it amazing how it handles some storms so well and others horribly. Handled the 13th storm horrifically, yet was the best with the 5th storm. I'm guessing that it tends to do better with northern stream systems and worse with southern stream.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 16, 2014 8:37 pm

That is exactly right.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:07 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:This is a fair look. Big ridge in the west, trough in the east. Granted, there is no blocking. But usually it gradually shows up. Some people say we have seen no blocking this year, while the NAO may not have been truly negative, we have still seen instances of blocking to our north in other ways from different anomalies.

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With this in mind, I think after the warm up, we will have four weeks of snow time left.This pattern should produce at least 7.6 inches to put NYC CP in second place for the snowiest winter.The pattern may produce a big March snowstorm.That big one in '93 dropped over 17 inches in Mawah.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:22 pm

Doc, It just wants to snow and be cold - let's embrace it for it's a possible historical time and just get over this fact. Somehow someway Mother Nature and Old man Winter will make it happen - we can analyze and analyze maps but when it comes down to it will snow IMO.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:48 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:This is a fair look. Big ridge in the west, trough in the east. Granted, there is no blocking. But usually it gradually shows up. Some people say we have seen no blocking this year, while the NAO may not have been truly negative, we have still seen instances of blocking to our north in other ways from different anomalies.

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With this in mind, I think after the warm up, we will have four weeks of snow time left.This pattern should produce at least 7.6 inches to put NYC CP in second place for the snowiest winter.The pattern may produce a big March snowstorm.That big one in '93 dropped over 17 inches in Mawah.

'93 was a 100 year type storm, (although these seem to become more frequent) it was a triple phased beast that was in the 960mb range as it passed through NJ and over NYC. We won't see one of those for a while although moderate events are definately in reach.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 16, 2014 10:18 pm

You also have to remember as Tom noted the 93 storm was a terrible path for us for snow. Yet NYC still got 10.6 inches before the change to rain, Mahwah as Doc posted got 17 inches and I got 20, the last 3 of which was all sleet.

If we ever had a repeat of the 93 storm and it was 50-75 miles further east we would all set seasonal snowfall records.

Not expecting that and nothing in the long range to even hint at it.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:18 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:You also have to remember as Tom noted the 93 storm was a terrible path for us for snow.  Yet NYC still got 10.6 inches before the change to rain, Mahwah as Doc posted got 17 inches and I got 20, the last 3 of which was all sleet.

If we ever had a repeat of  the 93 storm and it was 50-75 miles further east we would all set seasonal snowfall records.

Not expecting that and nothing in the long range to even hint at it.

Yes, despite the low tracking like 20 miles to my east I was frozen the entire event, several inches of heavy snow to wind driven killer sleet and it stayed mostly sleet through the end. Storm total was around 14" and lots of it was sleet. It was insane.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:23 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:You also have to remember as Tom noted the 93 storm was a terrible path for us for snow.  Yet NYC still got 10.6 inches before the change to rain, Mahwah as Doc posted got 17 inches and I got 20, the last 3 of which was all sleet.

If we ever had a repeat of  the 93 storm and it was 50-75 miles further east we would all set seasonal snowfall records.

Not expecting that and nothing in the long range to even hint at it.

Yes, despite the low tracking like 20 miles to my east I was frozen the entire event, several inches of heavy snow to wind driven killer sleet and it stayed mostly sleet through the end. Storm total was around 14" and lots of it was sleet. It was insane.

That storm could have been termed sleetmageddon.I have never seen sleet come down like that day before or after.I had 17 inches, 3 inches of solid sleet on top.

Just at the PA-NY border where SNOW is , it stayed all snow and there was 36 inches.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:36 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:You also have to remember as Tom noted the 93 storm was a terrible path for us for snow.  Yet NYC still got 10.6 inches before the change to rain, Mahwah as Doc posted got 17 inches and I got 20, the last 3 of which was all sleet.

If we ever had a repeat of  the 93 storm and it was 50-75 miles further east we would all set seasonal snowfall records.

Not expecting that and nothing in the long range to even hint at it.

Yes, despite the low tracking like 20 miles to my east I was frozen the entire event, several inches of heavy snow to wind driven killer sleet and it stayed mostly sleet through the end. Storm total was around 14" and lots of it was sleet. It was insane.

That storm could have been termed sleetmageddon.I have never seen sleet come down like that day before or after.I had 17 inches, 3 inches of solid sleet on top.

Just at the PA-NY border where SNOW is , it stayed all snow and there was 36 inches.

Going through obs on the archive site and in my area there were sustained winds 30mph and 30 degree sfc temps and pure IP with visibility .1 miles, wow, that's literally a sleetzard.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 17, 2014 3:10 pm

Look at the euro - wow if this verifies we all it will change but....
Looks like a cold end for feb and start to march - cp my man record temps? We might go after some them again if this comes to fruition!
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CMC LOL!!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 3:17 pm

Late Feb storm (26-27ish) is still on the 12z GFS and EURO run.
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Post by Quietace Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:34 pm

SPC being pretty bullish on calling a Day 5 Severe weather threat with the cold front passage on Friday.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:13 pm

@Quietace wrote:SPC being pretty bullish on calling a Day 5 Severe weather threat with the cold front passage on Friday.
Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 3 Day48p11

TWC going with T-storms too, I've checked all instability levels and CAPE and values around here are negligible, any values that show T-storms stay well south of the MD line, I am not too worried about thunderstorms here but I'm sure there will be a period of moderate rain.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:20 am

*Fantasy land*

Imagine if this verified...

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 3 Y5GOhzY

That is the EURO Control. Not to be confused with the EURO

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:31 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:*Fantasy land*

Imagine if this verified...

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 3 Y5GOhzY

That is the EURO Control. Not to be confused with the EURO

Well for one thing NYC would shatter the seasonal record and maybe start thinking about 100 inches this season. LOL

I know it's fantasy land but what date is that for?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:33 am

The track, at least snowfall accumulation wise looks similar to the presidents day 2003 blizzard. The king of all Miller B's
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:35 am

March 3rd

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:02 am

We've been down this road before. Cough Feb 5 Cough
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:07 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:We've been down this road before. Cough Feb 5 Cough

And no one on this forum with half a brain would bite on this, but it's fun to play fantasy land, especially with no snow storms to track for at least the next several days.

And March 3rd is my daughters birthday so why not.
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Post by shabsies Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:09 am

Frank, I'm looking forward to your blog later today Very Happy 
Are temps going to be cold enough for some good snow around that time frame?

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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:35 am

Noticing this week that even with the warm up, most nights around my area will be in the 20's,save Thursday night.Any melted areas will freeze over rock solid again making this snowpack like concrete.

With added snow possible in march, could be looking at snow (frozen cement) on the ground for a while.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:19 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:We've been down this road before. Cough Feb 5 Cough

And no one on this forum with half a brain would bite on this, but it's fun to play fantasy land, especially with no snow storms to track for at least the next several days.

And March 3rd is my daughters birthday so why not.

That is soooooo far in the future. Sometimes I wonder why they even have any models that go over a week.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:24 pm

Plus I have an 8am flight to Florida on March 4th so please no blizzards around then haha.
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Post by HectorO Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:25 pm

Man, look at some of the cold air next week. It could get pretty cold next week. Won't be a hard time for snow to fall with moisture present.
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