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Official Long Range Thread 2.0

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:55 pm

Interesting write-up I saw on another forum by someone. Frank, what are your thoughts? I thought we were dealing with a Miller B here...

"This looks like a Miller A / phasing potential synoptic set-up on the ECMWF to me. Classic split flow / PNA pattern with the northern stream riding up and over the western ridge, diving southeastward in the Central Plains. Undercutting sub tropical jet enhanced by the likely phase 1 MJO wave.

The PNA axis as progged is ideal. There's not a much better look you can find for the PNA / EPO region. The Atlantic, as has been the story this winter, isn't pulling its weight. If we had the 50/50 low (don't even need a Greenland block for this), it'd be screaming MECS potential for me. As it stands, the pattern is very obviously full of potential, otherwise we wouldn't be seeing such wild solutions on some of the guidance.

The progression could change to Miller B but right now it looks like a Miller A bomb on the ECMWF/ensembles.

The trough axis is conducive for the greatest amount of upper divergence near the east coast as well.

Of course it's as progged currently. What we don't want to see is the following:

1. Progressively weaker/de-amplified short wave
2. PNA ridge axis less meridional and/or shifting further east than currently depicted; this would place the cyclogenesis zone offshore
3. STJ becoming a non-player, forcing us to rely solely on northern stream s/w deepening which would more likely favor those NE of us."
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:59 pm

It's not a Miller A. In order for this to be a Miller A there has to be southern stream energy involved from the STJ. While the STJ could be a factor, H5 has not showed a short wave in the southeast. The precipitation in the southeast on the models is due to the STJ (sub tropical jet stream) being so strong (200mb winds are near 300 kts.) and a surface low forms off the southeast coast because phasing is beginning to take place with the northern stream energy embedded into the trough.

To me, it's more of a hybrid A/B than a full on A.

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:04 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:It's not a Miller A. In order for this to be a Miller A there has to be southern stream energy involved from the STJ. While the STJ could be a factor, H5 has not showed a short wave in the southeast. The precipitation in the southeast on the models is due to the STJ (sub tropical jet stream) being so strong (200mb winds are near 300 kts.) and a surface low forms off the southeast coast because phasing is beginning to take place with the northern stream energy embedded into the trough.

To me, it's more of a hybrid A/B than a full on A.

Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying.
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:13 pm

They mentioned this possible storm for the middle of next week on NBC Nightly News tonight. They showed a graphic from TWC and said don't put your snow removal equipment away just yet. Oh boy if that isn't the ultimate KOD I don't know what is. LOL !
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:14 pm

thanks for clarifying frank. a hybrid, those are pretty bada## storms ie sandy was a hybrid i believe, not that I think this would be a winter sandy but hybrids can kick butt. Will you be making a thread in the next day or so?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:15 pm

Ahh snowman lets hope superstition took a vacation over the next 7 days : )
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:35 pm

I just noted back in your older post Frank you said the current GFS has 6+ for philly and SNJ so it doesnt get further north than that at this time? Do you see (and yes of course weather is going to do what it is and is hard to predict, but to your best idea as of now) it coming north further to get NYC and westchester if it does indeed develop into a hybrid and the trough is far enough to allow the storm up the coast which it appears to be doing at this point.

BTW Thanks for all explanations, I am starting to get the more technical stuff now since when I first joined in December. And this goes for everyone.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:47 pm

Sandy was a hybrid hurricane and noreaster, not miller A and miller B snowstorms, coupled with a strong block that forced it northwest, without this blocking I just dont see a huge storm for our area, if this fact remains I will lean towards an OTS solution but its still too early so well see if this trends west
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:05 pm

Was just saying sandy was a hybrid didn't know the specific dynamics of each different kind of hybrid thanks for the clarification, On another note I hope your wrong NJ, bring it ON! lol
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:24 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:They mentioned this possible storm for the middle of next week on NBC Nightly News tonight. They showed a graphic from TWC and said don't put your snow removal equipment away just yet. Oh boy if that isn't the ultimate KOD I don't know what is. LOL !

Here we go and then JB willpost a 20" snowmap and FB goes viral and we kiss it all goodbye!! HAHAHA!!

ANYWAY, JOIN ME IN RAISING A GLASS TO THE OFFICIAL END OF WINTER ON ITS LAST FULL DAY TODAY - EVEN THOUGH I HAVE THE FLU I AM KSW king  AND WILL RAISE A GLASS WITH ALL MY FELLOW SPIRES AND LADS OF MY FICTITIOUS KINGDOM WE MADE THIS YEAR ON THIS WONDERFUL BOARD AND GIVE CHEERS TO THE VERY GOOD WINTER IT WAS OVERALL !!

Three Cheers for Old Man Winter Everyone -  cheers  cheers  cheers  here here!!

Let's hope he can lay us a big bom  or a  cherry bomb next week.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:34 pm

I want a a cherry bomb mugs, KSW make it happen lol cheers, and hopefully full on bubbly next week!  Hopefully models come into a exciting agreement over weekend so we can enjoy tracking something thats not a total letdown. but keep that in the back of your mind. rayno isnt hyping it, he keeps saying threat and i dont know. Way to admit that as a met!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:44 pm

@amugs wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:They mentioned this possible storm for the middle of next week on NBC Nightly News tonight. They showed a graphic from TWC and said don't put your snow removal equipment away just yet. Oh boy if that isn't the ultimate KOD I don't know what is. LOL !

Here we go and then JB willpost a 20" snowmap and FB goes viral and we kiss it all goodbye!! HAHAHA!!

ANYWAY,  JOIN ME IN RAISING A GLASS TO THE OFFICIAL END OF WINTER ON ITS LAST FULL DAY TODAY - EVEN THOUGH I HAVE THE FLU I AM KSW king  AND WILL RAISE A GLASS WITH ALL MY FELLOW SPIRES AND LADS OF MY FICTITIOUS KINGDOM WE MADE THIS YEAR ON THIS WONDERFUL BOARD AND GIVE CHEERS TO THE VERY GOOD WINTER IT WAS OVERALL !!

Three Cheers for Old Man Winter Everyone -  cheers  cheers  cheers  here here!!

Let's hope he can lay us a big bom  or a  cherry bomb next week.

It will never even get that far your Highness  king . There'e a better chance Kate Upton calls me in the next five days, and asks me to leave my wife for her, than there is for this alleged storm to hit our area with snow.

I've got to keep it real your Highness  king .  The masses are tired of the cold and snowless stretch that has been the hallmark of your 6 week reign. Whispers of an overthrow have been heard in the hallways. If you can't deliver by next Wednesday maybe you should resign as King of Snow Weenie Land.

I'm just the messenger.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:49 pm

I am fairly confident this is our last chance for a storm, afterwards the pattern breaks down and this happens. Has support from long range EURO EPS.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:42 pm

CP you Debbie Downer lol, As long as people are talking I am listening and hoping, doesnt mean I expect but don't shoot it down yet its still 5-6 days away, we know that we cannot possibly know the outcome but the signals are there as Frank has said and shown along with rayno and bastardi. He is being a good boy with no snow maps, however since its not over land that far west i guess there are no snow maps to post at this time.
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:00 am

is something wrong with the nws models? 00z nam or 00z gfs hasn't run yet on nws site.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:10 am

00z GFS looking very good...

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:10 am

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 37 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f132

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:14 am

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 37 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f141

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:16 am

What a run. Hopefully by Friday or Saturday, we can get the west trend going. The energy coming out of Canada is the strongest we have seen ALL SEASON. The trough closes off around hours 141 over the Ohio Valley. Naturally, the surface should have shown a storm closer to the coast in my opinion. That is going off experience.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:24 am

Frank yes nice run, as long as its on the maps at this pt its good for me, minimum central pressure 980mb at about 65W 42N, so needs to come alot west.  81mph wind gusts at that time progged too.  I dont care what anyone else is saying I think we are going to get thumped.  You seem interested and thats always a good sign to me and all you have had to say is positive things  so far.  Usually 5 days out its not alot of good news.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:27 am

Frank does the trough for PV, whatever it is in the middle of country go negative? This is one piece we want right? Sorry I forgot that dip was called.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:28 am

algae its loaded, and is LOADED, just needs to come closer to the coast which Frank feels should have happened with the setup, so we now need to watch for that westward trend.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:32 am

Trough axis is still too far east and too flat. Need a big trend with this one.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:56 am

00z Canadian...

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 37 1509667_279061015596699_940840266_n

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:59 am

Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 37 Gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_25

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