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Official Long Range Thread 2.0

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:12 am

And for reference to the tightly packed isobars, there is nowhere else in the US that is anything like the low off east coast.

(this map is not at its deepest but just so you can see more of it and the fact that its the only thing in the US with isobars like that and deep purple, and winds still high.)

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032006&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=150
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:25 am

The Euro GFS and GGEM ensembles are all pretty close at the moment in terms of track.  The operationals over night are in agreement for the most part with their Ens mean as well.  That is a track S and E of the BM.  For those who may not know what the Ensemble Mean is:  Each of the three models GFS, Canadian, and Euro takes the data it uses for its operational model run and does 50 extra individual model runs with that data.  The ensemble mean is the avg soln for those extra 50model runs.        
GFS Ens Mean: 
Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 39 Gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_26

GGEM Ens Mean:
Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 39 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 39 Ggem_e10" />

EURO Ens Mean:
Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 39 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 2.0  - Page 39 Euro_e10" />

At this stage that is telling me that a storm is most likely to form.  Current ens mean indicates a track that is SE of the BM; too far to the S and E for any significant snowfall for most if not all of us.  With the lack of blocking which has been the theme all season the progressive soln, or the "teaser" track yet again is likely.  

HOWEVER, we are still looking at a system that is 6 days out still.  If you look at the individual member runs that make up the ensemble mean for any given model (gfs, GGEM, or Euro)there are many really nice hits.  Since we are still so far out that tells me that there is plenty of time for this to trend for better OR worse.

Like Tom stated above the Trough axis is still too far to the east.  With the current lack of blocking this gives us the OTS soln.  However if the current track angle did not change, but we shifted the entire trough west a bit there is enough of a SW-NE track to give us a decent storm.  

Or if we kept the trough axis where it is, but phased the energy slight different and tilted the trough axis more neutral to neg we could change the track angle more S to N which would bring the LP center back closer to the BM.  

Bottom line is at this time frame we can take away that the models are currently agreeing that a formidable storm is looking to take shape for next week around the Tuesday-Wed time frame.  Current "general" consensus, if you can call it that, on a track would be a scrape or OTS soln.  Keep in mind at this time frame we do NOT want to see the ideal soln.   It is going to take a lot; however, to either slow the trough as a whole, and/or improve the timing of the phasing to tilt the trough more favorable for a more S/N track orientation. The safe call right now would be to say the soln of somewhere S and E of the BM is probably correct due to the Lack of blocking and the diff in getting so many pieces to come together perfectly.  Still a loooong way to go.  Don't get your hopes up despite what the models may be doing through out the week until the earliest Monday morning.  Im not kidding about that last point.  If we start seeing an ideal track too early then in all likelihood it aint gonna happen.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:35 am

@jmanley32 wrote:And for reference to the tightly packed isobars, there is nowhere else in the US that is anything like the low off east coast.

(this map is not  at its deepest but just so you can see more of it and the fact that its the only thing in the US with isobars like that and deep purple, and winds still high.)

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032006&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=150

Not exactly sure why you are going on and on about this point. We are still 6 days out! Looking at wind impacts at this time frame is no different than looking at precip amts. Yes this has potential to have large wind impacts, but It will change from run to run. First things first, storm or no storm, then track, then intensity, wind, and precip impacts, then eventually fine tune those details. Sometimes its better to take the listen and learn approach.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:58 am

Agreed SROC, trough axis really needs to shift, simply wont allow any westerly movement if it remains in the same position, it just wont happen unless this trough trends at the very least sharper
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:13 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:And for reference to the tightly packed isobars, there is nowhere else in the US that is anything like the low off east coast.

(this map is not  at its deepest but just so you can see more of it and the fact that its the only thing in the US with isobars like that and deep purple, and winds still high.)

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032006&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=150

Not exactly sure why you are going on and on about this point.  We are still 6 days out!  Looking at wind impacts at this time frame is no different than looking at precip amts.  Yes this has potential to have large wind impacts, but It will change from run to run.  First things first, storm or no storm, then track, then intensity, wind, and precip impacts, then eventually fine tune those details.  Sometimes its better to take the listen and learn approach.  

Thanks Doc, as always your points are backed by logic and facts, not feelings and assumptions with nothing to back them up.

I've never felt this storm had a chance because reading the analysis you, Frank and Tom have put out it just appears to me you are all saying many things have to happen, none of which have high probabilities right now, for us to get a good hit here. Since nothing has gone right the last 6 weeks I will go on assuming there will be a big storm that we can all wave at, as it travels harmlessly out to our east.

So you know what I'm saying Doc, (looking for the wink emoticon but can't find it) , if three things have to happen and the probability is 50% for each to happen for us to have a big storm then the probability of having a big storm hit us is 12.5%. I don't like those odds, even though I just arbitrarily made them up.

Even though I'd love to see Frank singing, you making snow angels and anyone else on this board doing whatever else it takes to make this storm happen IMO it's all wishful thinking ATM.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:42 am

sroc, I was getting frustrated because I was being told I wasn't reading that map correctly (or that it was wrong and I noted that that was possible being its instantwxmaps and they have a bias to have their wind maps higher than are correct for that particular run), I didn't care about the possible track or impacts it had nothing to do with that or this storm in particular just a comparison in winds and pressures. And CP no facts? I posted the storm from 2010 again to show that even though the pressure was not as low (993mb, 2010) as Sandy(946mb) that winds can be higher with a higher central pressure. Again if I am wrong about this you can by all means correct me but I honestly remember having this conversation a while back and someone here told me that just because the pressure was low didn't mean the winds would be super high, I imagine that could work vice versa in this situation too. That was all, it wasn't about this specific storm more about how things happen with wind. As you guys know wind fascinates me and I know quite a bit about it. As for the maps that were just posted great post, yeah it looks like they all pretty much agree RIGHT NOW about a south of the benchmark run with a intense storm but as was said its 5-6 days away and if I have learned anything from this board its that anything 5 days out, shoot even 2-3 days out a ton can and will change, for the better or worse. I am not assuming anything just hopeful thats all I like to be optimistic, it would be awesome to see such a powerful storm but never did I say oh its going to happen, like Bernie said "I just don't know! But the threat is real and its there!" LOL, I kinda gotta love the guy for that.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:39 am

@jmanley32 wrote:sroc, I was getting frustrated because I was being told I wasn't reading that map correctly (or that it was wrong and I noted that that was possible being its instantwxmaps and they have a bias to have their wind maps higher than are correct for that particular run), I didn't care about the possible track or impacts it had nothing to do with that or this storm in particular just a comparison in winds and pressures.  And CP no facts?  I posted the storm from 2010 again to show that even though the pressure was not as low (993mb, 2010) as Sandy(946mb) that winds can be higher with a higher central pressure.  Again if I am wrong about this you can by all means correct me but I honestly remember having this conversation a while back and someone here told me that just because the pressure was low didn't mean the winds would be super high, I imagine that could work vice versa in this situation too.  That was all, it wasn't about this specific storm more about how things happen with wind.  As you guys know wind fascinates me and I know quite a bit about it.  As for the maps that were just posted great post, yeah it looks like they all pretty much agree RIGHT NOW about a south of the benchmark run with a intense storm but as was said its 5-6 days away and if I have learned anything from this board its that anything 5 days out, shoot even 2-3 days out a ton can and will change, for the better or worse.  I am not assuming anything just hopeful thats all I like to be optimistic, it would be awesome to see such a powerful storm but never did I say oh its going to happen, like Bernie said "I just don't know! But the threat is real and its there!" LOL, I kinda gotta love the guy for that.

Im with you dude. I understand your passion and love for this...we all do. Its the weenie in us all. There just seems to be alot of extra discussion about how winds are generated etc. There is a general discussions thread for that kind of stuff. I know with next weeks potential the Long Range thread has been consumed with analysis of this threat only, but in the next few days it will have its own thread. Right now there just isnt alot that can be said about the details of this storm this far out. Many of us dont like to do too much talking about those details because they change run to run and model to model. This time frame is time to sit back and listen to what mother nature is trying to say, read between the lines if you will. As we get into the weekend I personally will start looking into more of the details and the more detailed discussions will def break out. Again man, this is no disrespect to you at all. Im just trying to go with the flow here.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:44 am

jmanley FWIW the BDB storm only generated the 90mph gusts in Nova Scotia after the storm deepened to 964mb, not a 993 storm at that point, to say that winds are not directly impacted by isobars is a wrong statement. I said earlier it was NOT the ONLY factor but a major one. Not trying to make you look bad but just trying to educate you a bit.


Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:47 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:47 am

Jman:

Don't get frustrated, just listen and continue to learn. IMO there are only a select group of people who write on this board, some obvious others not, whose expert analysis is insightful, and I am certainly not one of those people, nor are most of the 500 or so others that are members here. We're all just listening and trying to learn the same as you.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:56 am

I agree, in no way am I a expert, NJ I guess I misunderstood, and I wasn't talking about this storm being 993 I was talking about 2010 but lets just forget about it lol. Sroc no I totally understand, not really familiar with all the threads that are up. When I have time I will comb through them.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:58 am

Oh and NJ I never said that isobars were not the main ingrediant, I 100% agree on that I thinbk we got off on a tangent that got confusing, nvm onto better things, seeing how this may evolve all we can do now.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:09 am

sroc why doesn't it have its own now? I mean yes it could not hit us but theres likely going to be a storm somewhere as has been shown in maps and talk, I would think a thread would be appropriate for those reasons.
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:21 am

WPC for Next Week

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED UPON A MORE COMPATABLE/WELL CLUSTERED SOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. THIS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PATTERN AS AN ERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH AMPLIFIES WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ERN PAC/ALASKA REX BLOCK...WITH RIDGING BUILDING AND WORKING INTO THE WRN US IN BETWEEN.
IN THIS PATTERN THERE MEANWHILE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MARCH. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR WRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM INTENSIFICATION TUE-WED GIVES THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THE HIGHEST THREAT OF MEANINGFUL LATE SEASON SNOW/WIND.

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:25 am

Three things to watch to see if this storm is to occur from what I have learned and anyone chime in - I welcome it openly:

1. 50/50 low developement - slow, move this west (to the coast)
2. Canadian HP - position
3. Ridge in the West - if it flattens we're done

Keeping the faith king 

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:29 am

mugs is it just me or does the NWS make it more and more difficult to understand what the heck they are saying. The only real thing I took there was the potential for snow and wind lol.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:32 am

@amugs wrote:Three things to watch to see if this storm is to occur from what I have learned and anyone chime in - I welcome it openly:

1. 50/50 low developement - slow, move this west (to the coast)
2. Canadian HP - position
3. Ridge in the West - if it flattens we're done

Keeping the faith king 

If this storm doesn't happen, your kingdom is done your Highness king .

A word to the wise, you should start looking for flights to Belize just in case you have to quickly leave the kingdom. I'm not naming names, one ryhmes with snowfan and the other with Doclox, but several within the kingdom are very unhappy with the way things have gone since you proclaimed yourself king.

I'm only the messenger.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:36 am

WPC says midatlantic and northeast, what about lil old us NY which isnt the mid atlantic or northeast, I assume we are included in that area I don't think the storm would do hop scotch over NY into CT and MA lol.
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:39 am

@jmanley32 wrote:WPC says midatlantic and northeast, what about lil old us NY which isnt the mid atlantic or northeast, I assume we are included in that area I don't think the storm would do hop scotch over NY into CT and MA lol.

Mid-Atlantic includes NY

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:40 am

Really, it does? Thx dunzoo I never knew that!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:41 am

@jmanley32 wrote:WPC says midatlantic and northeast, what about lil old us NY which isnt the mid atlantic or northeast, I assume we are included in that area I don't think the storm would do hop scotch over NY into CT and MA lol.

Jamn:

NY is considered the northeast on most outlets.

If they are using the terms Mid Atlantic and New England then NY would be refereed to as the Northern Mid Atlantic.

Geographically since NY state runs from 41 to 45 degrees north latitude, it is most often referred to as part of the northeast as it should be.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:41 am

Wow, I dunno why I never knew that, I always thought the midatlantic was NJ maryland etc.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:44 am

I agree CP, but most people I have saiod that too said NO NY is not part of the northeast but its really negligible interms of distance apart. My dad just told me maine got 14 inches yesterday and Okemo in VT got 6-7. I wanna be up there lol. I have some crazy pics from my grandfathers house of snow piled close to second floor of his house, if I can figure out how to upload them I will tonight.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:48 am

Umm I just looked at the NAM, where did that snow 3-5 inches come from for the coastal areas? Thats just at 81-84 hrs so its prolly bogus right? I do vaguely remember something about precip on Sunday but thought it was go be showers, rain form.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:50 am

Wait is that the NAM showing our possible storm on the 23rd? Look at this, I think either it is and way off or its something different.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032012&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=084
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:50 am

@jmanley32 wrote:I agree CP, but most people I have saiod that too said NO NY is not part of the northeast but its really negligible interms of distance apart.  My dad just told me maine got 14 inches yesterday and Okemo in VT got 6-7.  I wanna be up there lol.  I have some crazy pics from my grandfathers house of snow piled close to second floor of his house, if I can figure out how to upload them I will tonight.

That would be paradise, I wish I was there.

Like I said, only if an outlet is referring to New England as just the northeast, which is a very limited view, would they not include NY in the category of the northeast. In those cases NY would be referred to as the northern Mid Atlantic.

Anyone that looks at a map can see that NY is geographically in the northeast, it's further north than half the New England states, so to label it the Mid Atlantic is IMO a bad geography lesson.
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