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March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:15 am

A potent piece of short wave energy coming out of Southern California (thanks to the strong amplitude of the MJO), will be tracking across the southern half of the country and eventually up our coast. With confluence to our north due to the Polar Vortex, as well as a strong area of High Pressure, this surface low that develops from the wave off Cali will have no chance of cutting to our west. Therefore, we will remain cold enough for snow (though there is a slight caveat).

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  Image

From the 500 mb vort map above taken from the latest 12z GFS, you can see why there is a strong indication of overrunning precipitation breaking out over the Mid-Atlantic / Northeast. The combination of low level cold air from the strong PV to our north (thanks to the extremely -EPO) and the presence of the southeast ridge to our south (goes back to the +TNH pattern of this season) will create a gradient with snows to the north and rain to the south, with freezing rain also possible where surfaces are below freezing.

Along the gradient, waves of low pressure will develop which will enhance precipitation rates and cause this to become a long duration event. Possibly 30+ hours (up to 50+ hours possible!) of light to moderate snowfall. Obviously this will add up when all is said and done, and some places could be looking at 10+ inches of snow. The areas who will jackpot are those JUST north of the gradient because that is where the best lift (700 mb frontogenesis) will set up. Right now, I think central / northern NJ into NYC / LI could get into some of that.

There is still a lot of detail we need to iron out. Exactly where that gradient sets up and whether or not it tracks north of us at some point (which would give us some rain / freezing rain) also needs to be watched.

We'll see what happens. A conservative call right now would be 4-8 inches with POTENTIAL of 12-18 inches.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Fri Feb 28, 2014 11:29 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:18 am

Agree as of now Frank, GFS was beautiful but as we know still quite a while to go yet, going to get track well ironed by Friday
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:20 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Agree as of now Frank, GFS was beautiful but as we know still quite a while to go yet, going to get track well ironed by Friday

Yea, hopefully. I think a few inches is reasonable right now. 3-6/4-8 type. But the potential is there for much more if all comes together. A lot of waves of low pressure along the gradient

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:21 am

Iv'e liked the early March period for awhile now. PV is in a much better position.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:23 am

Yeah, I think a storm is definite at this point, just need to iron out track and QPF, then we can worry about P-type, not to set the weenies into overdrive buy the 12z GFS shows 16-18 swath through PHI, CNJ and NYC. Widespread 12"+, would love to lock it in but still way too far out.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:25 am

I sincerely think NJ is in a prime spot right now.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:26 am

NJ gets snow for 48+ hours more like 52 on the GFS. Ive never seen a storm that lasts so long, dubious to believe it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:26 am

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  1888826_10152281895308352_760728626_o

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:28 am

Still throwing off light snow at 168, instantwrathermaps snow map has final of 20"+ inches in northern half of NJ
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:28 am

Folks in the mid Hudson Valley might need to prepare themselves for disappointment if current guidance holds up. Since there is a gradient with this storm, that means someone is going to jackpot and areas just a few miles away could have drastically less snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:29 am

GFS snow map. Wow....

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  2vb3574

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:40 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS snow map. Wow....

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  2vb3574
Yep, that's a HECS in my book. GFS came in even colder this run. Don't need it to trend any colder, or we run the risk of suppression; as far as what the GFS depicts. Like I said before, need to temper excitement. Just need consistency with the models and their ensembles for now.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:45 am

Franjk was hoping I was gonna get to post it all I have to say is GFS is making a comeback and holy crap! And thats not including the possible 7th event.

End of run holy jeeze!

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:46 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS snow map. Wow....

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  2vb3574

I just looked at the 2-meter temperatures for the potential snow event next week on the 12Z GFS and after 1 AM Monday March 3rd, it stays below 25 degrees in NYC for the duration of the storm, so I'm guessing that would be at least 15:1 snow ratios. Also, when the storm clears, it gets down into the single digits...

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:48 am

As I understand instantwxmaps takes rations into account. still if all pans out at least major hit through 4th/5th and possibly more further out. Getting a little psyched but not too much, hesitant on such a large event but it has happened before.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:49 am

If Euro comes in similar and CMC we def have something here.  Smile
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:52 am

My bad saw franks post on the other threat 9-10th now instead of 7th for possible event. March is def come in like a lion if this all works out. Frank what do you think the chances for at least the first one to pan out as intense as GFS and Euro and dare I say the clown CMC yesterday?
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:58 am

Frank, if you look at the 500mb map of the GFS at hr 150, the PV dives SE and nearly phased with that last wave down south. If that happened, it would of made this run even more prolific. Something else to look for in future runs. A very volatile set up for sure! Shocked 
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:05 pm

Hey nutley all i know in what you said was phase which usually means huge! Ahhh going to be a long 3-4 days, hoping Friday we can hone in on something more concise but several model runs with SOME consistency already from what I have seen.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:11 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:NJ gets snow for 48+ hours more like 52 on the GFS. Ive never seen a storm that lasts so long, dubious to believe it.

Tom do you remember the great Presidents Day(s) Storm of 1978 - I sure as hell do - started snowing on Sunday afternoon and lasted until Wed early morning - is is possible hell ya but I hear you we are still a ways away from the GFS idea. I know different set up no retrograding of the LP away and then back to teh coast etc. Just stating that it did happen - I was nine years old at that time.

This board is hopping - LOVE IT!!

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:13 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank, if you look at the 500mb map of the GFS at hr 150, the PV dives SE and nearly phased with that last wave down south. If that happened, it would of made this run even more prolific. Something else to look for in future runs. A very volatile set up for sure! Shocked 

Nuts you beat me to it - I was just seeing that on my lunch break and it misses by a smidge - catches the tail of it? - if that happens then BOOM!

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hey nutley all i know in what you said was phase which usually means huge! Ahhh going to be a long 3-4 days, hoping Friday we can hone in on something more concise but several model runs with SOME consistency already from what I have seen.

if this all trends continuing Friday we have something cooking here big time lets hope it doesn't get the local tv mets jinx
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:25 pm

The canadian is a HUGE HIT!!!
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:27 pm

@amugs wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:NJ gets snow for 48+ hours more like 52 on the GFS. Ive never seen a storm that lasts so long, dubious to believe it.

Tom do you remember the great Presidents Day(s) Storm of 1978 - I sure as hell do - started snowing on Sunday afternoon and lasted until Wed early morning - is is possible hell ya but I  hear you we are still a ways away from the GFS idea. I know different set up no retrograding of the LP away and then back to teh coast etc. Just stating that it did happen - I was nine years old at that time.

This board is hopping - LOVE IT!!

mugs I remember that storm. I was 15 years old. we put chains on my dads van. he was in the fish business had to drive down to fulton market in lower manhattan. we got stuck several times even with the chains. it just kept snowing for days. one of my favorite snow storms
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:30 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:The canadian is a HUGE HIT!!!

getting really excited now. we are in a good range now. 4-5 days out. trying to keep expectations down but that's really hard right now.
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