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March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:43 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:ace it did actually accumulate here i nthe Bronx which is pretty close to the coast, so I guess you mean southern areas as in southern jersey?
Correct.

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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:44 pm

Dont know if this was posted, but GFS snow map from 18z

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 5 Gfs_6h13

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:47 pm

Experimental FIM model, not sure it's accuracy but FWIW

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 5 3hap_s10
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:47 pm

Did anyone ever post the euro snow totals? from 12z?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:48 pm

Thats about 1/2 inche to 1 inch per hour if its 6 hr precip am I right? FIM has gotten better from I have heard.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:48 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Did anyone ever post the euro snow totals? from 12z?

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 5 Screen63
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:49 pm

The thread is alive with sound of snow weenies... lol Humm to the tune of sound of music.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:50 pm

Yuck NJ I dont like that Euro trash it lol, bring that bright orange south.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:52 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yuck NJ I dont like that Euro trash it lol, bring that bright orange south.

I'd take the 3", cant be too greedy, this time tomorrow it could be a NYS special. Still too much time to go which I don't like, several models are perfect that I'd like to lock in but things will change, and in the back of everyone's mind they wonder if it's for worse which it could be.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:54 pm

,Ahhh 3 inches nothing to get excited about. I doubt it will be that little though, I have a feeling about this one as did frank a week ago. He has some kind of abilities beyond my understanding.
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:55 pm

this was the GFS 18z 132hr map

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 5 1912097_10202666916505723_1589262637_n
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:55 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:,Ahhh 3 inches nothing to get excited about.  I doubt it will be that little though,  I have a feeling about this one as did frank a week ago.  He has some kind of abilities beyond my understanding.

Uh, ok...
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:56 pm

Ur right I cant complain im on the edge of 6-9 and 9-12. But if thats over so many hours id be flurries the whole time lol.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:56 pm

Posting snow maps is fun and all, but they do not do us justice at this juncture. Important to monitor the trends of two things:

1. The High to the north

2. The southern s/w energy. If this energy is strong, there could be additional waves of energy that ridge the baroclinic zone

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:57 pm

NJ you dont remember frank saying there would be a big storm around the 1st, well 3-4th isnt too far off. I may be wrong too and I just mean Frank is really smart.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:58 pm

well ok he said signals for a possible big storm.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:59 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Posting snow maps is fun and all, but they do not do us justice at this juncture. Important to monitor the trends of two things:

1. The High to the north

2. The southern s/w energy. If this energy is strong, there could be additional waves of energy that ridge the baroclinic zone

Yes, as I've said before they are meaningless at this point. I am concerned about the s/w being too amplified because then it would ride further north. I think a weaker system is a better outcome here as it moves east instead of northeast, the EURO showed this. As far as the additional waves it's on the 12z GFS and DGEX but not seeing support on any foreign models besides the CMC threw back a small amount of QPF maybe in additional couple inches or so, 12z GFS was by far the most extreme followed by DGEX.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:59 pm

Frank ur right, I am just having fun watching them, I know we cannot stick a fork in any of them.
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:02 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Posting snow maps is fun and all, but they do not do us justice at this juncture. Important to monitor the trends of two things:

1. The High to the north

2. The southern s/w energy. If this energy is strong, there could be additional waves of energy that ridge the baroclinic zone

Yes, as I've said before they are meaningless at this point. I am concerned about the s/w being too amplified because then it would ride further north. I think a weaker system is a better outcome here as it moves east instead of northeast, the EURO showed this. As far as the additional waves it's on the 12z GFS and DGEX but not seeing support on any foreign models besides the CMC threw back a small amount of QPF maybe in additional couple inches or so, 12z GFS was by far the most extreme followed by DGEX.
Even if the SW is more amplified, If we have enough confluence from a strong Hp situated north of the GL, the system wont be able to to travel further north.
The Euro came north due to the weaker Hp and less confluence allowing a more northern track.
But if the HP is weaker than modeled, with a stronger shortwave then yes your correct.

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Post by Noreaster Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:04 pm

We need a consolidated PV causing enough confluence to not let anything cut , a weak storm to slide underneath us and a strong high to keep the cold air in place . That's basically what I'm looking for on the models as is most of the others.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:04 pm

@Quietace wrote:Dont know if this was posted, but GFS snow map from 18z

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 5 Gfs_6h13

Boy, that rain/snow cutoff in Western Long Island scares me a little. Plus, Lee just said in his forecast that he thinks the cold air we have now will be stale by the time storm comes, so we need to watch & see if it's rain or snow.
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Post by Noreaster Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:05 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Posting snow maps is fun and all, but they do not do us justice at this juncture. Important to monitor the trends of two things:

1. The High to the north

2. The southern s/w energy. If this energy is strong, there could be additional waves of energy that ridge the baroclinic zone

Yes, as I've said before they are meaningless at this point. I am concerned about the s/w being too amplified because then it would ride further north. I think a weaker system is a better outcome here as it moves east instead of northeast, the EURO showed this. As far as the additional waves it's on the 12z GFS and DGEX but not seeing support on any foreign models besides the CMC threw back a small amount of QPF maybe in additional couple inches or so, 12z GFS was by far the most extreme followed by DGEX.
Even if the SW is more amplified, If we have enough confluence from a strong Hp situated north of the GL, the system wont be able to to travel further north.
The Euro came north due to the weaker Hp and less confluence allowing a more northern track.
But if the HP is weaker than modeled, with a stronger shortwave then yes your correct.

If a more amped storm tried to drive into the confluence it would just transfer to the coast but it makes the forecast all the more tricky.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:NJ you dont remember frank saying there would be a big storm around the 1st, well 3-4th isnt too far off.  I may be wrong too and I just mean Frank is really smart.

In my blog last week, I said March 1st-5th was the period to watch. The 1st, as in this weekend, will feature just some snow showers Saturday morning. The 3rd-4th obviously is the bigger storm threat.

Next storm threat is 7th-10th

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Post by Noreaster Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:10 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Dont know if this was posted, but GFS snow map from 18z

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 5 Gfs_6h13

Boy, that rain/snow cutoff in Western Long Island scares me a little. Plus, Lee just said in his forecast that he thinks the cold air we have now will be stale by the time storm comes, so we need to watch & see if it's rain or snow.

We need to be on the north side of the gradient. If we have an arctic high to the north like many models show it will certainly not be stale cold air.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:10 pm

@Noreaster wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Posting snow maps is fun and all, but they do not do us justice at this juncture. Important to monitor the trends of two things:

1. The High to the north

2. The southern s/w energy. If this energy is strong, there could be additional waves of energy that ridge the baroclinic zone

Yes, as I've said before they are meaningless at this point. I am concerned about the s/w being too amplified because then it would ride further north. I think a weaker system is a better outcome here as it moves east instead of northeast, the EURO showed this. As far as the additional waves it's on the 12z GFS and DGEX but not seeing support on any foreign models besides the CMC threw back a small amount of QPF maybe in additional couple inches or so, 12z GFS was by far the most extreme followed by DGEX.
Even if the SW is more amplified, If we have enough confluence from a strong Hp situated north of the GL, the system wont be able to to travel further north.
The Euro came north due to the weaker Hp and less confluence allowing a more northern track.
But if the HP is weaker than modeled, with a stronger shortwave then yes your correct.

If a more amped storm tried to drive into the confluence it would just transfer to the coast but it makes the forecast all the more tricky.

I think a weaker storm gives us our best shot at a longer lived consistent event, a stronger low would throw things off IMO and like you said we would have some of transfer situation which usually screws someone. I'd like the GFS/CMC scenario to remain.
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