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March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

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Post by Aiosamoney21 Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:55 pm

just hit print scrn on keyboard

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:59 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Everyone can say what they want, but being that the storm is about 10-15hrs away from being fully sampled, one would be a fool to think that todays runs are the final solutions, or that the storm isn't going to be as impressive due to today's new information. Also, hasn't the trend this whole winter called for a stronger storm trending weaker and more suppressed and then 48 hours before the storm it comes back North and stronger? See you at 0z and 12z runs!

I agree. Do not get me wrong, even yesterday I warned that the PV is strong and people thinking 12+ amounts for our area should remain cautious. But we are still in line for a 6-12 inch snowfall in my opinion, and that has been my forecast from the get go. Not changing that now.

Also, chat at 10pm tonight still

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:01 pm

My forecast from early this morning was 8-12" with localized 14" amounts. I am leaning on taking away the "localized 14" part, but otherwise i see no reason to change my forecast at the moment.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:04 pm

@Aiosamoney21 wrote:just hit print scrn on keyboard
That's what I thought and nothings happening.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:10 pm

From Tri-State Weather...Great explanation....
Tri-State Weather
***STORM UPDATE*** What did I say this week and what have I said in the past when models agree with storms several days in advance? IT WILL CHANGE! So why does it shock people the models are all over the place? Also, where is the storm? Not on land! We need it to get on land so the models can get a better handle on it! So do not go nuts with the model runs. take a deep breathe. I am standing out with 6 to 12 inches. yes it is a wide region for just saying 6 to 12 inches but I knew this would happen. models jump all around and you can not live & die by each run. What we need too see is what do the models do the next 24 hrs as the storm comes ashore on the west coast. So bottom line is it is wait and see. we will continue to update you and I will adjust snowfall totals as need be. So please, stay tuned as we adjust snow totals! meanwhile bundle up! - Adam
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:11 pm

It is worth noting that more then half of the individual ensemble members are north of the OP with this storms track

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:11 pm

For your viewing pleasure while we take a break from the models....stormchasers looking for waterspouts in Cali

www.tvnweather.com/live

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by mhbaben Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:13 pm

Aiosamoney21 wrote:just hit print scrn on keyboard

That's what I thought and nothings happening.
I believe if thats not working, you can right click, select all, copy and paste
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:34 pm

From EPAWA....
Some of the models have shifted south today and that is what has people worried. Difference between what we do and what others do is we have a team that uses meteorology, not modelology. First call will reflect that in a half hour.
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:35 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:Nj what's your gut feeling about this event. Do you think It'll fall into place and we'll see snow ?
Or will it be a bust. Just curious to see what you think because you seem to have good insight  about the weather. Come on give it to me from your gut. I can take it. lol

I am honestly 50/50, I can see how it ends up more suppressed and I can see how it ends up north like the earlier GFS runs. Just saw the latest Bernie Rayno video and he seems confused as well, nobody here has a crystal ball. Of course I'd like the 6z GFS solution but I honestly dont know.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snow-and-ice-storm-on-the-way/2430839568001

Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner Nj. Had to run a few errands. Thanks for your answer.
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Post by Noreaster Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:37 pm

Despite today's trends I still feel most of NYC Metro sees 6"+
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:40 pm

Well luckily there is at least a day for this to trend back soooooo.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBWcRqPesws

Time to take a break from the models and come back later. You guys wonder why I never bite on an event 100+ hours out, it's because of stuff like this.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:41 pm

I am going to be having a nice family dinner now for my dad's bday. I will be back for the 0z runs. Hopefully i don't throw up my dinner that my mom worked hard on lmao
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Post by Joe Snow Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:42 pm

Mets2695 wrote:From EPAWA....
Some of the models have shifted south today and that is what has people worried. Difference between what we do and what others do is we have a team that uses meteorology, not modelology. First call will reflect that in a half hour.

Amen to that, it's like everyone is jumping ship and bailing out. All we need it one model run to show a big hit and everyone comes jumping back in. Hang in there more and more data will be coming in with this as the storm moves ashore. Geeezzzz are we snow weenies or what, I still say 12+ for the area...........
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Post by pdubz Fri Feb 28, 2014 7:03 pm

EPAWA first call map-"Within the discussion we give approximate timing and why we haven't bought into the extreme southern shift on some model guidance, namely the 18z GFS. Remember that models are just guidance, not a forecast. Meteorology > modelology"
http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps-3/

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 41 8d49fa858a
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 28, 2014 7:30 pm

I think possibly that 8-14 could shift south more imo
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Post by JDKWeather Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:21 pm

Guys face it - this is a huge bust for us - I76 south is going to get the snow

North of that trace - 2 "

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:24 pm

Does anyone have a still short of the storm over the pacific, amazing image want it for my album!
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:34 pm

Oh wow. The Weather Channel (cough cough) had 70% snow on Monday and now it's 30% snow showers...? That automated computer is trouble lol
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Post by HectorO Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:45 pm

Forgive me if I'm short of sympathy, but it's looking better for me. I need to make money next week. White stuff can be nice, but the green stuff is better.
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Post by pdubz Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:50 pm

00Z NAM is running now
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Post by oldtimer Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:51 pm

Hector Where are you ?

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:58 pm

i found images from CA, they are just amazing.
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Post by HectorO Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:02 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Hector   Where are you ?

Mahwah, NJ
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:02 pm

I wouldnt say bust just yet tonights run important
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