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March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

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Post by Noreaster Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:NJ you dont remember frank saying there would be a big storm around the 1st, well 3-4th isnt too far off.  I may be wrong too and I just mean Frank is really smart.

In my blog last week, I said March 1st-5th was the period to watch. The 1st, as in this weekend, will feature just some snow showers Saturday morning. The 3rd-4th obviously is the bigger storm threat.

Next storm threat is 7th-10th

The Euro showed the 7-10 th threat nicely today.. Although warm verbatim.  Still a nice track.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:12 pm

Me too NJ, : ) BUt I guess its who really knows at this point Friday we should know better 00z run fri night I think you or someone else mentioned.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:13 pm

What was the CMC showing again? Was the map posted back some pages for 12z?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Me too NJ, : ) BUt I guess its who really knows at this point Friday we should know better 00z run fri night I think you or someone else mentioned.

Yes that was me, I am not going to even consider locking in a solution or drawing maps until then, just too much darn time between now and the storm. Next 4 days will be restless nights. Gotta get the 5hr energy shots.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:14 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:What was the CMC showing again? Was the map posted back some pages for 12z?

Don't look at the snow map, look at this.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:15 pm

Note it has energy right behind it, not going to even get started on that yet but a few models have been hinting on it and signals are possibly even more favorable then.
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:23 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Me too NJ, : ) BUt I guess its who really knows at this point Friday we should know better 00z run fri night I think you or someone else mentioned.

Yes that was me, I am not going to even consider locking in a solution or drawing maps until then, just too much darn time between now and the storm. Next 4 days will be restless nights. Gotta get the 5hr energy shots.
Im exhausted right now, its going to be a long week.

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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:24 pm

@Noreaster wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Posting snow maps is fun and all, but they do not do us justice at this juncture. Important to monitor the trends of two things:

1. The High to the north

2. The southern s/w energy. If this energy is strong, there could be additional waves of energy that ridge the baroclinic zone

Yes, as I've said before they are meaningless at this point. I am concerned about the s/w being too amplified because then it would ride further north. I think a weaker system is a better outcome here as it moves east instead of northeast, the EURO showed this. As far as the additional waves it's on the 12z GFS and DGEX but not seeing support on any foreign models besides the CMC threw back a small amount of QPF maybe in additional couple inches or so, 12z GFS was by far the most extreme followed by DGEX.
Even if the SW is more amplified, If we have enough confluence from a strong Hp situated north of the GL, the system wont be able to to travel further north.
The Euro came north due to the weaker Hp and less confluence allowing a more northern track.
But if the HP is weaker than modeled, with a stronger shortwave then yes your correct.

If a more amped storm tried to drive into the confluence it would just transfer to the coast but it makes the forecast all the more tricky.
Yes, but im just hypothetically speaking there. Not saying that will happen, but its a possibility.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:24 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Me too NJ, : ) BUt I guess its who really knows at this point Friday we should know better 00z run fri night I think you or someone else mentioned.

Yes that was me, I am not going to even consider locking in a solution or drawing maps until then, just too much darn time between now and the storm. Next 4 days will be restless nights. Gotta get the 5hr energy shots.
Im exhausted right now, its going to be a long week.

Yes, considering how bad the models have been with nearly every storm this season I see it being a nail biter until the bitter end. And Ace, hypothetically speaking what I was saying that with a weaker s/w is the safest best for a colder solution here, theoretically it gives the HP a little wiggle room to trend in some direction or weaker without the LP tracking too far north. Personally I want this one weak, some of the best widespread storms have been very weak, most importantly being PDII which was like a 1010 low.


Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:25 pm

I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:25 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Me too NJ, : ) BUt I guess its who really knows at this point Friday we should know better 00z run fri night I think you or someone else mentioned.

Yes that was me, I am not going to even consider locking in a solution or drawing maps until then, just too much darn time between now and the storm. Next 4 days will be restless nights. Gotta get the 5hr energy shots.
Im exhausted right now, its going to be a long week.

Yes, considering how bad the models have been with nearly every storm this season I see it being a nail biter until the bitter end.
True, this can trend either way in terms of p-type and it will take some long nights to dial that in. lol. Its going to be fun.

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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:26 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:27 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:28 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol

You should be indifferent now as it is far too early to get worked up. I will however admit the EURO solution still has me on edge for a warmer outcome which IMO is far more likely than a suppressed solution.
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:28 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:31 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.  Cool 
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:31 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

Yeah, I know that. I would take anything close to verbatim to yesterday's runs. But we always get at least somewhat excited when we see what the EURO showed yesterday, even. And then it sucker punches the excitement with something like a warmer solutionnnnn. ;-)
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:32 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.  Cool 

Exactly. People are FB'ing me asking where my post is about the 'big storm on Monday' ... I told them I won't post anything until I see tomorrow's 12z's
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:34 pm

Good video by Rayno explaining some of the differences between EURO and GFS. As of now he's siding with the EURO and mixing along I-95

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-ice-coming-to-midwe/2430839568001?channel=top_story
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:34 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.  Cool 
Im still greatly worried about a warm north solution IMO. I want to be re-assured by the Euro trending back south and colder tonight.

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Post by Noreaster Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:36 pm

18z Gefs are slightly north of the OP and look like an initial rain/mix over to snow


Last edited by Noreaster on Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:36 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.  Cool 
Im still greatly worried about a warm north solution IMO. I want to be re-assured by the Euro trending back south and colder tonight.

The EURO has been fairly inconsistent, unless it shows this into Friday with the GFS/CMC/others trending towards it I will be greatly worried. Right now it's basically the EURO and JMA with the warm solution. The ENS EPS is significantly further south with SLP which is a good sign.
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:37 pm

@Noreaster wrote:18z Gefs are slightly north of the OP and look like an initial mix over to snow
Hows the MSLP spread.

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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:40 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.  Cool 
Im still greatly worried about a warm north solution IMO. I want to be re-assured by the Euro trending back south and colder tonight.

The EURO has been fairly inconsistent, unless it shows this into Friday with the GFS/CMC/others trending towards it I will be greatly worried. Right now it's basically the EURO and JMA with the warm solution. The ENS EPS is significantly further south with SLP which is a good sign.
True Tom, having the Ensembles south and colder is a red flag that the Op solution may be incorrect. Just not jumping the gun.

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Post by Noreaster Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:43 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.  Cool 
Im still greatly worried about a warm north solution IMO. I want to be re-assured by the Euro trending back south and colder tonight.

The EURO has been fairly inconsistent, unless it shows this into Friday with the GFS/CMC/others trending towards it I will be greatly worried. Right now it's basically the EURO and JMA with the warm solution. The ENS EPS is significantly further south with SLP which is a good sign.
True Tom, having the Ensembles south and colder is a red flag that the Op solution may be incorrect. Just not jumping the gun.

The Euro ensembles are south of the OP but north of the 0z euro ensembles. As for the Gefs spread, I haven't seen the individual's yet.
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