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March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:40 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Quietace wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.  Cool 
Im still greatly worried about a warm north solution IMO. I want to be re-assured by the Euro trending back south and colder tonight.

The EURO has been fairly inconsistent, unless it shows this into Friday with the GFS/CMC/others trending towards it I will be greatly worried. Right now it's basically the EURO and JMA with the warm solution. The ENS EPS is significantly further south with SLP which is a good sign.
True Tom, having the Ensembles south and colder is a red flag that the Op solution may be incorrect. Just not jumping the gun.

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Post by Noreaster Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:43 pm

Quietace wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Quietace wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... Mad lol
Euro could have the correct solution now.

I know, that's why I am sad. lol
But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.

Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.  Cool 
Im still greatly worried about a warm north solution IMO. I want to be re-assured by the Euro trending back south and colder tonight.

The EURO has been fairly inconsistent, unless it shows this into Friday with the GFS/CMC/others trending towards it I will be greatly worried. Right now it's basically the EURO and JMA with the warm solution. The ENS EPS is significantly further south with SLP which is a good sign.
True Tom, having the Ensembles south and colder is a red flag that the Op solution may be incorrect. Just not jumping the gun.

The Euro ensembles are south of the OP but north of the 0z euro ensembles. As for the Gefs spread, I haven't seen the individual's yet.

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Post by Noreaster Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:44 pm

Sorry Ace..I'm on my phone and not home
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:06 pm

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 7 1978705_10202667001027836_531530351_n
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Post by pdubz Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:10 pm

lets hope the EURO moves towards the GFS or at least no mixing NYC/LongIsland
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:sroc, is it really a big if since we have two possible big events in one week and maybe even after that? Frank had mentioned these are not fantasy last night.  But we will see if I bet I would put down $10 lol
Sorry  jMan didn't see this earlier. To me  I stressed IF because I was reffering mostly to the ideal setup. That being said I am starting grow more confident on a moderate to major event for early next week for most of our coverage area. We seem to be moving away from if and more towards exactly where the axis of Precip occurs. As Frank and others have stressed exactly where the boundary sets up will play a huge role in that outcome and the details of this amongst the models are still varying.   Of course there is still a lot of time left for this to trend towards a minor or non event but this is the one of the only times I can think of this winter where we actually have decent agreement of the basic idea of the set up within the models at this time frame.  There of course are other details that still need ironing, but there has been consistency now for a few days showing a swath of heavy snow, at least 6-12" that will affect some if not most of us on this board some time between Sunday early eve to possibly Wednesday.  The exact duration of the event is another detail that needs ironing, but again the main idea seems to be staring us right in the face with this one.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:52 pm

Interesting, the 18z GEFS suite is clearly colder than the 12z set which had several warm solution, this 18z set has far fewer.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:54 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Interesting, the 18z GEFS suite is clearly colder than the 12z set which had several warm solution, this 18z set has far fewer.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

It's just a mess right now. Models have no clue where that HP to our north sets up, or if it will even be there. We will not begin seeing consistency until Friday. Would be nice to see some beginning 12z tomorrow into 00z tomorrow night.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Interesting, the 18z GEFS suite is clearly colder than the 12z set which had several warm solution, this 18z set has far fewer.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

It's just a mess right now. Models have no clue where that HP to our north sets up, or if it will even be there. We will not begin seeing consistency until Friday. Would be nice to see some beginning 12z tomorrow into 00z tomorrow night.

True, although there is a far less spread on this run than last nights 0z GEFS and even todays 12z GEFS for that matter. Getting there though...
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 26, 2014 8:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Interesting, the 18z GEFS suite is clearly colder than the 12z set which had several warm solution, this 18z set has far fewer.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

It's just a mess right now. Models have no clue where that HP to our north sets up, or if it will even be there. We will not begin seeing consistency until Friday. Would be nice to see some beginning 12z tomorrow into 00z tomorrow night.

Friday 12z's will be the lock.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:33 pm

A somewhat interesting thing to note, this is not a 100% rule but typically energies tend to exit on the east coast where they enter on the west coast. Our energy is expected to come ashore of San Francisco Friday night. It is somewhat hard to locate as the inital storm dies off as the energy comes ashore, but the general idea is that the energy will come ashore somewhere in the central part of the California coastline. Now, given the tendency for energies to want to exit at the same latitude, theoretically it should move off the coast somewhere around the southern Delmarva. Again, by no means a 100% certainty or forecasting would be far easier, but food for though.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:39 pm

The only snow map from wxbell that wasnt posted today was euro, i checked thread, does anyone have it? I like to keep  a archive and see after the fact how it trended.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:The only snow map from wxbell that wasnt posted today was euro, i checked thread, does anyone have it? I like to keep  a archive and see after the fact how it trended.

No, I posted an accuwx map of it, do not use wxbell maps, there worse than usual and usually interpret frozen precip as snow (ZR and IP) a situation which has huge implications in a setup like this, same happened with the 2/5 and 2/13 storm, interpreted wrong precip type. Just dont use snow maps at this point period haha.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:46 pm

I've never seen the NAM and SREF so different  Shocked 

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 7 Usa_pc21

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 7 F8710
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:49 pm

The storm that's going to impact us is the left one.

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 7 Screen64
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:58 pm

Ok no problem NJ. I just like the pretty colors lol.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:59 pm

GFS coming soon, don't know if I can stay up for much more runs, especially if it's crappy, we'll see.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:14 pm

LOL, keep positive NJ!
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Post by pdubz Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:20 pm

food for thought
March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 7 3d4fa002d1

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 7 CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:24 pm

00z GFS has started. Looks very warm.











...jk

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Post by jbnyy224 Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:25 pm

Frank so not funny. My heart just sunk!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:29 pm

Yeah man! U had me jump out my chair lol jk
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Post by pdubz Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z GFS has started. Looks very warm.











...jk

i yelled out WOW before i saw the jk
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Post by tigernumba1 Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z GFS has started. Looks very warm.











...jk


lol you had me there
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:31 pm

GFS says snow showers Thursday afternoon. As in tomorrow

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:31 pm

I love you all. Haha

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Post by dsvinos Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:32 pm

Just want to put my 2 cents in....March 3rd is my birthday and I always remember huge snowstorms on or around my birthday...this storm will make me so happy...then I'll be able to accept the warmer temps. I'm feeling pretty lucky being smack in the middle of NJ!!
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