March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
True Tom, having the Ensembles south and colder is a red flag that the Op solution may be incorrect. Just not jumping the gun.NjWeatherGuy wrote:Quietace wrote:Im still greatly worried about a warm north solution IMO. I want to be re-assured by the Euro trending back south and colder tonight.NjWeatherGuy wrote:Quietace wrote:But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.SoulSingMG wrote:Quietace wrote:Euro could have the correct solution now.SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... lol
I know, that's why I am sad. lol
Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.
The EURO has been fairly inconsistent, unless it shows this into Friday with the GFS/CMC/others trending towards it I will be greatly worried. Right now it's basically the EURO and JMA with the warm solution. The ENS EPS is significantly further south with SLP which is a good sign.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Quietace wrote:True Tom, having the Ensembles south and colder is a red flag that the Op solution may be incorrect. Just not jumping the gun.NjWeatherGuy wrote:Quietace wrote:Im still greatly worried about a warm north solution IMO. I want to be re-assured by the Euro trending back south and colder tonight.NjWeatherGuy wrote:Quietace wrote:But taking any model verbatim 5+days out is a bad idea.SoulSingMG wrote:Quietace wrote:Euro could have the correct solution now.SoulSingMG wrote:I am so sick of the EURO showing a great storm 5-7 days out and then waffling closer to the event. It used to be my fav but now.......... lol
I know, that's why I am sad. lol
Yes, I will not be significantly worried about warmth unless we see huge trends towards that across the board tonight and tomorrow or after the energy is sampled late Friday into Saturday. Can't jump off the bandwagon if you haven't borded yet.
The EURO has been fairly inconsistent, unless it shows this into Friday with the GFS/CMC/others trending towards it I will be greatly worried. Right now it's basically the EURO and JMA with the warm solution. The ENS EPS is significantly further south with SLP which is a good sign.
The Euro ensembles are south of the OP but north of the 0z euro ensembles. As for the Gefs spread, I haven't seen the individual's yet.
Noreaster- Posts : 463
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Sorry Ace..I'm on my phone and not home
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RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
lets hope the EURO moves towards the GFS or at least no mixing NYC/LongIsland
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Sorry jMan didn't see this earlier. To me I stressed IF because I was reffering mostly to the ideal setup. That being said I am starting grow more confident on a moderate to major event for early next week for most of our coverage area. We seem to be moving away from if and more towards exactly where the axis of Precip occurs. As Frank and others have stressed exactly where the boundary sets up will play a huge role in that outcome and the details of this amongst the models are still varying. Of course there is still a lot of time left for this to trend towards a minor or non event but this is the one of the only times I can think of this winter where we actually have decent agreement of the basic idea of the set up within the models at this time frame. There of course are other details that still need ironing, but there has been consistency now for a few days showing a swath of heavy snow, at least 6-12" that will affect some if not most of us on this board some time between Sunday early eve to possibly Wednesday. The exact duration of the event is another detail that needs ironing, but again the main idea seems to be staring us right in the face with this one.jmanley32 wrote:sroc, is it really a big if since we have two possible big events in one week and maybe even after that? Frank had mentioned these are not fantasy last night. But we will see if I bet I would put down $10 lol
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Interesting, the 18z GEFS suite is clearly colder than the 12z set which had several warm solution, this 18z set has far fewer.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Interesting, the 18z GEFS suite is clearly colder than the 12z set which had several warm solution, this 18z set has far fewer.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html
It's just a mess right now. Models have no clue where that HP to our north sets up, or if it will even be there. We will not begin seeing consistency until Friday. Would be nice to see some beginning 12z tomorrow into 00z tomorrow night.
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Frank_Wx wrote:NjWeatherGuy wrote:Interesting, the 18z GEFS suite is clearly colder than the 12z set which had several warm solution, this 18z set has far fewer.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html
It's just a mess right now. Models have no clue where that HP to our north sets up, or if it will even be there. We will not begin seeing consistency until Friday. Would be nice to see some beginning 12z tomorrow into 00z tomorrow night.
True, although there is a far less spread on this run than last nights 0z GEFS and even todays 12z GEFS for that matter. Getting there though...
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Frank_Wx wrote:NjWeatherGuy wrote:Interesting, the 18z GEFS suite is clearly colder than the 12z set which had several warm solution, this 18z set has far fewer.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html
It's just a mess right now. Models have no clue where that HP to our north sets up, or if it will even be there. We will not begin seeing consistency until Friday. Would be nice to see some beginning 12z tomorrow into 00z tomorrow night.
Friday 12z's will be the lock.
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
A somewhat interesting thing to note, this is not a 100% rule but typically energies tend to exit on the east coast where they enter on the west coast. Our energy is expected to come ashore of San Francisco Friday night. It is somewhat hard to locate as the inital storm dies off as the energy comes ashore, but the general idea is that the energy will come ashore somewhere in the central part of the California coastline. Now, given the tendency for energies to want to exit at the same latitude, theoretically it should move off the coast somewhere around the southern Delmarva. Again, by no means a 100% certainty or forecasting would be far easier, but food for though.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
The only snow map from wxbell that wasnt posted today was euro, i checked thread, does anyone have it? I like to keep a archive and see after the fact how it trended.
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
jmanley32 wrote:The only snow map from wxbell that wasnt posted today was euro, i checked thread, does anyone have it? I like to keep a archive and see after the fact how it trended.
No, I posted an accuwx map of it, do not use wxbell maps, there worse than usual and usually interpret frozen precip as snow (ZR and IP) a situation which has huge implications in a setup like this, same happened with the 2/5 and 2/13 storm, interpreted wrong precip type. Just dont use snow maps at this point period haha.
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
I've never seen the NAM and SREF so different
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
The storm that's going to impact us is the left one.
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Ok no problem NJ. I just like the pretty colors lol.
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
GFS coming soon, don't know if I can stay up for much more runs, especially if it's crappy, we'll see.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
LOL, keep positive NJ!
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
food for thought
pdubz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
00z GFS has started. Looks very warm.
...jk
...jk
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Frank so not funny. My heart just sunk!
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Yeah man! U had me jump out my chair lol jk
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Frank_Wx wrote:00z GFS has started. Looks very warm.
...jk
i yelled out WOW before i saw the jk
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Frank_Wx wrote:00z GFS has started. Looks very warm.
...jk
lol you had me there
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
GFS says snow showers Thursday afternoon. As in tomorrow
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
I love you all. Haha
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Just want to put my 2 cents in....March 3rd is my birthday and I always remember huge snowstorms on or around my birthday...this storm will make me so happy...then I'll be able to accept the warmer temps. I'm feeling pretty lucky being smack in the middle of NJ!!
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