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March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:32 pm

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 2 Post-564-0-43875100-1393435511

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 2 Post-564-0-19276400-1393435527

Here it is Nuts - hopes it shows this the next 9 runs - hahaha!!

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:33 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:The canadian is a HUGE HIT!!!

getting really excited now. we are in a good range now. 4-5 days out. trying to keep expectations down but that's really hard right now.

I hear you guys - my adrenaline is starting to flow - my wife better watch out - HAHAHA!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:39 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank, if you look at the 500mb map of the GFS at hr 150, the PV dives SE and nearly phased with that last wave down south. If that happened, it would of made this run even more prolific. Something else to look for in future runs. A very volatile set up for sure! Shocked 

Yes, I mentioned yesterday if a piece of the confluence phases in, the storm would be even larger

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:45 pm

Social media is blowing up with this already...I may have to uplug for 24 hours.....to talk on here is one thing, but putting model images up on social media sites this early is crazy.....ugh

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:46 pm

[quote="amugs"]
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank, if you look at the 500mb map of the GFS at hr 150, the PV dives SE and nearly phased with that last wave down south. If that happened, it would of made this run even more prolific. Something else to look for in future runs. A very volatile set up for sure! Shocked 

A few of the GEFS members show a full phase with that last wave. Need to keep an eye out on that possibility.
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:10 pm

Can any of you folks hear that fast paced thumping sound ? I know what it is. It's Cp's heart starting to race. LOL !
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:13 pm

12z CMC much better than the 0z run last night, but not as extreme as the 12z run yesterday, shows about 10-12" from NNJ through NYC and LI, and 12-18" from Philly through CNJ.

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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:17 pm

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 2 Cmc_sn11

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:24 pm

Can someone post the CMC snowfall totals? Out for now be back on and off mobile.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:27 pm

Last night it was Canadian going againist the GFS/EURO and now the EURO goes againist the GFS/Canadian. Probably will change again by 0z tonight.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:28 pm

Oh ace for some reason it didnt show, nvm wow quite a diff from yesterday, am root for GFS now lol. Heck any of them they all give us something good. Let that full phase happen!
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:32 pm

Volatile situation that small run to run changes with surface high and low placement will have profound effects on the end solution. For example the surface high to our north on the Euro is much weaker than other models shorting the cold air supply and allowing the temps to torch with a more westerly to SW flow with the system. . The euro is the warmest model now, but im sure this is not the final solution. Run to run changes will continue and its nothing to get worked up about. The Euro solution can be as correct as the GEM/GFS. So im not getting excited, im just observing the trends and ensembles right now.


Last edited by Quietace on Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:33 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:33 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:Last night it was Canadian going againist the GFS/EURO and now the EURO goes againist the GFS/Canadian. Probably will change again by 0z tonight.

did todays euro back off big snows?
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:35 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:Last night it was Canadian going againist the GFS/EURO and now the EURO goes againist the GFS/Canadian. Probably will change again by 0z tonight.

did todays euro back off big snows?
Shifted them north into north jersey and the HV, as the whole solution is further north.

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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:37 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:Last night it was Canadian going againist the GFS/EURO and now the EURO goes againist the GFS/Canadian. Probably will change again by 0z tonight.

did todays euro back off big snows?
Shifted them north into north jersey and the HV, as the whole solution is further north.

how far north? north of nyc? and are there any mixing issues?
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:41 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank, if you look at the 500mb map of the GFS at hr 150, the PV dives SE and nearly phased with that last wave down south. If that happened, it would of made this run even more prolific. Something else to look for in future runs. A very volatile set up for sure! Shocked 

A few of the GEFS members show a full phase with that last wave. Need to keep an eye out on that possibility.

INDEED my man - that could be one of the best calls for this storm if it comes to! bounce bounce 

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:49 pm

CMC looks like a nice run, the GFS was stellar, only problem is it's still 100 hours out. According to CMC and GFS we get some snow for 50 hours. This would be unheard of if it occured. The only storm I can remember lasting nearly this long was PDII which lasted around 30 hours. I am having a hard time buying such a long-lived storm, I'll begin to get excited tomorrow 12z if it holds and then be very excited Friday if it does. Something we have for us is a strong PV and storms that go across the country are typically easier forecasts than Miller A coastals.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:53 pm

A significant amount of 12z GEFS members appear to be warm from what I can see meanwhile some have a 985 low at BM. Still a lot of time left and yet again days of sleepless nights. I lied I am excited now but still trying to remain cautious and have a level mind cause this could go sour very easily.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:58 pm

JMA and EURO are warm. Again, still lots of solutions on the table. Yesterday 12z and last night 0z for the EURO were practically the same and this run came in north. Far from being a nailed down track, some GEFS members show this solution. Hope for a stronger PV.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:00 pm

EURO is warm because it loses the High over Quebec. If that High is not there, we will see rain to backend snow. Better hope the GFS/CMC are right with that High to the north keeping the gradient south of us

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is warm because it loses the High over Quebec. If that High is not there, we will see rain to backend snow. Better hope the GFS/CMC are right with that High to the north keeping the gradient south of us

Yes, I'm going by some maps people posted because Pro didn't update yet, a blend of all the models now wouldn't be a bad solution which I like. What is the UKIE like? Again, not updated on pro, usually similar to EURO.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:07 pm

An important note is the energy for this storm won't be sampled until it comes onshore somewhere around Friday night (0zish) here is the WV loop, our energy is the further west one, the east one will putter out somewhere in the central US.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=we
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:05 pm

Somewhat OT but look at the temps the GFS has right after the storm, wow....

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:11 pm

12z EURO takes the low over southern NJ (pinelands area) and scoots ENE to outside of LI. Good this is that there it's not a low track right over or to the NW of us.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:15 pm

EURO ensembles are colder than the OP which is some good news, but they still are warmer than previous runs.

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