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March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:59 pm

pdubz I am with ya and mets I hope 00z is a nice smile before going to sleep.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:02 pm

Can i ask you guys a question? What if this run showed 14-18" for NYC further amplifying the wave. Wouldn't you all be excited and say wow look at this, looks like we are getting much more now! So just because the model wen't south, doesn't mean thats whats going to happen and thats the final result.... Point proven
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:03 pm

@jimv45 wrote:I think the southern trend will put the brakes on but I don't see it trending to far north!

If it goes any further south, they'll miss the heavy precip in WDC.

This possibility was always my biggest fear with this. People choose to be blind, as Monday trended colder and colder I knew this had a good chance of happening.

I won't lose all hope till the 12Z tomorrow. If this holds after everything has been sampled on land, we're done.


IMO
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:04 pm

North of NYC has an issue right now IMO, NYC south is still game imo
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:06 pm

Mets2695 wrote:North of NYC has an issue right now IMO, NYC south is still game imo

A fair assessment, but CNJ to NYC has worries now, last night they were in the safe zone.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:07 pm

Last night the GFS was hinting at a phase, now the same PV looks to rip apart our potential snowstorm. Did not see this one coming. If anything, my fear was this storm going too far north. I know frank mentioned the possibility of a trend south, followed by a trend north as we get close to crunch time. However, thats now 2 runs in a row with a significant shift south. We need frank to explain what the heck is going on, and if we salvage this event.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:10 pm

GFS is like the CMC, NAM is still a big hit but in long range bias mode, this isn't what I wanted to see. The explanation is the PV has trended further south which is suppressing everything to the south and shearing apart the LP.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:10 pm

I now find myself rooting for the last NAM run from 60-84 hours out, I don't like those odds.
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:11 pm

Quick look at 500mb shows some changes
12z
Here you can see circled is more interaction with the NS energy, with a further NE and consolidated PV. The more consolidated and NE PV allows the confluence to move further north. This allows for a more amplified NE flow and consolidated stronger  vort. This means the systems precip makes it into the area causing high impacts with high QPF.
March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 39 Gfs_1210
18z
Looking at the 18z i highlighted some differences.
1st their is less interaction between the 2 streams. Second the PV is handled different with a lobe left over Western Hudson Bay. This handling of the PV shifts the confluence south past the US/CA boarder with a more zonal E/W flow as there is less phasing. It also shears out the vort. With the confluence south, a less amplified vort, and a more zonal flow the system is suppressed south and has minimal impact of the area.
March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 39 Gfs_1810
I just wanted to point out the differences at the 500mb level that had consequences on the solution. Im not worried as it is one run let alone the 18z GFS. New observations and data will be available for 0z runs.  
No one should be worried. Period.


Last edited by Quietace on Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:15 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:11 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I now find myself rooting for the last NAM run from 60-84 hours out, I don't like those odds.

Exactly, ugh... Hate to lose a March storm to PV suppression, that is ridiculous, who would have thought. PV is pushing way too far south on these latest runs. Maybe the CMC was on to something.
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Post by Artechmetals Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:14 pm

I Remember Frank mentioning few days back that the PV might rip the storms apart ? Is this what can be happening
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:16 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:I Remember Frank mentioning few days back that the PV might rip the storms apart ? Is this what can be happening

Possibly, luckily we still have some time yet for it to come back but trends are not good thus far.
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Post by Artechmetals Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:17 pm

If and when should we start seeing improvements
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:18 pm

Everyone is freaking out over 1 run. Please relax. Thanks.
No weenie suicides allowed on my watch. lol

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Post by Artechmetals Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:19 pm

This pisses me off remember the 30 in storm that never happened it feels the same seems like everyone and their mothers  everywhere are talking about it and bam it slips away
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:21 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:If and when should we start seeing improvements

It would have to be tonight or tomorrow at 12z, if things don't look better by then it's a bad sign. Right now the problem as the second LP rides along the boundary layer (the more potent storm) the GFS/CMC have the PV rotating in from Canada north of the US border all the way into NYS which shunts the LP to the SSE and shears apart the precip shield. Good for the Delmarva people terrible for us. Again, I'm not throwing in the towel by any means, but my hand is beginning to grab it out of my pocket.


Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:21 pm

EPAWA is disregarding the 18z run and says the solution is not right for several reasons.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:22 pm

Mets2695 wrote:EPAWA is disregarding the 18z run and says the solution is not right for several reasons.

What reasons would those be? It's not like a lone run it's been a part of a daily trend for the most part among GFS at 12z, EURO and CMC.
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:23 pm

Mets2695 wrote:EPAWA is disregarding the 18z run and says the solution is not right for several reasons.
Well the differences in H5 are laughable comparing to 12z which I did. Why is anyone putting stock into a model that shifted 100 miles south in 1 run after being consistent for days.

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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:25 pm

The way the 18z GFS and 12z Euro handle the PV is completely different. Cant say they are in the same agreement.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:25 pm

Yep, and now the GFS has joined it.This nagging worry from the last few days appears to be coming true .Hopefully, as some have mentioned, the models late tonight and tomorrow will shift north.Hope I can squeeze 5.5 inches out of this to get to number two for snow in a year.

A March storm affected by PV suppression, what's the odds of that,LOL.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:26 pm

It's not 1 run ace, it's been since 12z today which is 2 runs, the first being a small shift the second being a much more drastic shift, that in my mind is a trend. The EURO has also trended this way and the CMC has been consistent on this being a sheared out event. Again, not putting stock in the 18z GFS on itself but noting overall trend today it's concerning.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:26 pm

These are quotes from a an employee of EPAWA who is on FB.
"why it would shift south by 150+ on a 18Z run can be justified by bias"
"its the 18Z GFS - you weenies - $10 says the GFS ENS calls BS on that"
"The GFS in itself has a consolidation of vorticity problem - its probably a bias showing a glaring solution with recyled data. Christ...."
"18z GFS is also recycled data"
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:28 pm

Mets2695 wrote:These are quotes from a an employee of EPAWA who is on FB.
"why it would shift south by 150+ on a 18Z run can be justified by bias"
"its the 18Z GFS - you weenies - $10 says the GFS ENS calls BS on that"
"The GFS in itself has a consolidation of vorticity problem - its probably a bias showing a glaring solution with recyled data. Christ...."
"18z GFS is also recycled data"
I will say recycled data is a crap excuse though.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:31 pm

Those are terrible points, sounds like the likes of someone who just put out a forecast that isn't looking very good so far. Not seeing anything meteorological there that would explain why the southern runs should be disregarded and I'm not just talking about the GFS. Sounds like some ego preservation crap. I'm going to need a few tonight that's for sure.
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