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March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:32 pm

This is a better explanation than that.

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 40 Post-210
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:32 pm

Ehh, usually not much stock is ever put into the 18z runs. 0z and 12z are far more important. Also the 18z run is fishy because although there has been somewhat of a south trend, the 18z took the south trend to another level, which is also currently an outlier in its southern extreme. Compromise between the northern and southern solution and you have a jackpot right through SPA, CNJ, NYC, LI just like the models have been showing for a few days.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:32 pm

@Quietace wrote:Quick look at 500mb shows some changes
12z
Here you can see circled is more interaction with the NS energy, with a further NE and consolidated PV. The more consolidated and NE PV allows the confluence to move further north. This allows for a more amplified NE flow and consolidated stronger  vort. This means the systems precip makes it into the area causing high impacts with high QPF.
March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 40 Gfs_1210
18z
Looking at the 18z i highlighted some differences.
1st their is less interaction between the 2 streams. Second the PV is handled different with a lobe left over Western Hudson Bay. This handling of the PV shifts the confluence south past the US/CA boarder with a more zonal E/W flow as there is less phasing. It also shears out the vort. With the confluence south, a less amplified vort, and a more zonal flow the system is suppressed south and has minimal impact of the area.

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 40 Gfs_1810
I just wanted to point out the differences at the 500mb level that had consequences on the solution. Im not worried as it is one run let alone the 18z GFS. New observations and data will be available for 0z runs.  
No one should be worried. Period.

Quietace has SPOKEN! :-D
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:33 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:It's not 1 run ace, it's been since 12z today which is 2 runs, the first being a small shift the second being a much more drastic shift, that in my mind is a trend. The EURO has also trended this way and the CMC has been consistent on this being a sheared out event. Again, not putting stock in the 18z GFS on itself but noting overall trend today it's concerning.
Im not saying that there has not been a trend, which their has been today. But im trying to defend that this storm isnt over because of 1 run like people are assuming. New data could easily reverse the trend. So unless 0z Models countinue to show this, im going to stay put with confidence in a substantial system effecting the area.

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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:33 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is a better explanation than that.

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 40 Post-210
LOL!!

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Post by pdubz Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:34 pm

soooooooo 85 and sunny on monday
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:34 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Ehh, usually not much stock is ever put into the 18z runs. 0z and 12z are far more important. Also the 18z run is fishy because although there has been somewhat of a south trend, the 18z took the south trend to another level, which is also currently an outlier in its southern extreme. Compromise between the northern and southern solution and you have a jackpot right through SPA, CNJ, NYC, LI just like the models have been showing for a few days.

No right now the northern solution would be the EPA, CNJ, NYC and LI jackpot, the middle ground would be W-MD, SEPA, PHI, SNJ, southern solutions would be Delmarva, and extreme southern NJ.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:35 pm

18z RGEM through 54 is looking good
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:36 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:It's not 1 run ace, it's been since 12z today which is 2 runs, the first being a small shift the second being a much more drastic shift, that in my mind is a trend. The EURO has also trended this way and the CMC has been consistent on this being a sheared out event. Again, not putting stock in the 18z GFS on itself but noting overall trend today it's concerning.
Im not saying that there has not been a trend, which their has been today. But im trying to defend that this storm isnt over because of 1 run like people are assuming. New data could easily reverse the trend. So unless 0z Models countinue to show this, im going to stay put with confidence in a substantial system effecting the area.

I'm nearly fully confident that some precip is on the way. I agree with you that it's not over and sorry if it came across that way. I'm just saying I don't like current trends. I think it's 50/50 goes back north or stays bad. IMO it's a crapshoot and only to be solved by watching and waiting. I'm going to go away from the computer in a little bit this is driving me crazy.
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:36 pm

RAP wants to take this on shore in about 20 hours.
March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 40 Rap_z510

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:37 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Ehh, usually not much stock is ever put into the 18z runs. 0z and 12z are far more important. Also the 18z run is fishy because although there has been somewhat of a south trend, the 18z took the south trend to another level, which is also currently an outlier in its southern extreme. Compromise between the northern and southern solution and you have a jackpot right through SPA, CNJ, NYC, LI just like the models have been showing for a few days.

No right now the northern solution would be the EPA, CNJ, NYC and LI jackpot, the middle ground would be W-MD, SEPA, PHI, SNJ, southern solutions would be Delmarva, and extreme southern NJ.

Thats if you took all of todays runs. Im talking about yesterday's northern solutions and today's southern solutions.
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:38 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:It's not 1 run ace, it's been since 12z today which is 2 runs, the first being a small shift the second being a much more drastic shift, that in my mind is a trend. The EURO has also trended this way and the CMC has been consistent on this being a sheared out event. Again, not putting stock in the 18z GFS on itself but noting overall trend today it's concerning.
Im not saying that there has not been a trend, which their has been today. But im trying to defend that this storm isnt over because of 1 run like people are assuming. New data could easily reverse the trend. So unless 0z Models countinue to show this, im going to stay put with confidence in a substantial system effecting the area.

I'm nearly fully confident that some precip is on the way. I agree with you that it's not over and sorry if it came across that way. I'm just saying I don't like current trends. I think it's 50/50 goes back north or stays bad. IMO it's a crapshoot and only to be solved by watching and waiting. I'm going to go away from the computer in a little bit this is driving me crazy.  
No you didn't come across that way. Agree that there is lots to be worked out.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:38 pm

Steve D is having mixed thoughts... He has a prelim map of 8-14" possibly more through central NJ, EPA, NYC and LI.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:40 pm

This is what happens all great runs yesterday and 2 bad ones today and people jump ship their is time here guys
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:41 pm

Matt Strouse's early thoughts.
There could be some slight shifts North south etc over the next day or two of model runs but pretty much the GFS /ECM are locked on to this storm now.

Early call for Eastern PA into NYC and NNJ is 12-20 inches of snow
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:42 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Matt Strouse's early thoughts.
There could be some slight shifts North south etc over the next day or two of model runs but pretty much the GFS /ECM are locked on to this storm now.

Early call for Eastern PA into NYC and NNJ is 12-20 inches of snow
Im sorry i Lol'd

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:43 pm

Yea it's a bit high lmao
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:44 pm

Never quote Matt Stouse again on this forum.

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:45 pm

He's that bad? Never read his stuff before, just saw it on AWE
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Post by pdubz Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Never quote Matt Stouse again on this forum.
lmao frank does not like him...
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:49 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is a better explanation than that.

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 40 Post-210

OMG, I almost knocked my laptop on the floor.  lol! 

I love that lunatic.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:52 pm

If I were Steve D I would be saying those things as well right now given the latest model guidance as a CYA.  Bottom line is we still have to see how that beast off the Cali coast, and it is a beast, holds up as it comes ashore.  PV is currently situated approx. over the SE Hudson Bay to NW Quebec.   BTW Does anyone know how to do a screen shot on a PC?
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-106.01,45.41,1024

March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm  - Page 40 Wv-animated

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:53 pm

Everyone can say what they want, but being that the storm is about 10-15hrs away from being fully sampled, one would be a fool to think that todays runs are the final solutions, or that the storm isn't going to be as impressive due to today's new information. Also, hasn't the trend this whole winter called for a stronger storm trending weaker and more suppressed and then 48 hours before the storm it comes back North and stronger? See you at 0z and 12z runs!
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:53 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Never quote Matt Stouse again on this forum.

OMG, thank God. FRANK.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:54 pm

I am beginning to think the PV is not the problem with this storm. It is more so the southern stream energy. It is looking really sheared out on guidance and I am unsure why it is doing that. The PV is in the same spot on all the models pretty much. With the...

1. MJO amplified into phase 8

2. A strong jet streak to our north

3. And going off of past events this season

I feel like this will still be a significant storm for our area and will not be surprised to see one last tinge north at 12z tomorrow. After all, the energy out west will have full sampling by then.

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