1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

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1st call snow map for the storm Sunday into Monday. The storm about to enter southern Cali is impressive and I think models are underplaying how much of that energy crosses the Rockies tomorrow. I also feel, as is usually the case, the PV is being over-modeled. The 00z GFS at H5 trended much better than it did at 18z, with the southern stream digging a bit more and allowing heights on the east to rise. Even though the surface may not reflect that. I do feel a northern trend is in order beginning at 12z tomorrow (not 6z) on guidance.

I explained in detail my thoughts yesterday in my blog. I am not one who suddenly "backs down" from my thoughts. I will re-link my blog in the comments section if you did not read it.

I will have timing tomorrow once I put up the observations thread

Oh man, only 3-6" in Manhattan. WHAT a bust compared to yesterday's models and thoughts.

SoulSingMG wrote:Oh man, only 3-6" in Manhattan. WHAT a bust compared to yesterday's models and thoughts.

Do not forget what I said in the chat

1. Energy gets fully sampled tomorrow

2. Upper levels trended better on 00z GFS

3. This is only a 1st call map. Final one will come tomorrow night.

Frank_Wx wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Oh man, only 3-6" in Manhattan. WHAT a bust compared to yesterday's models and thoughts.

Do not forget what I said in the chat

1. Energy gets fully sampled tomorrow

2. Upper levels trended better on 00z GFS

3. This is only a 1st call map. Final one will come tomorrow night.

K good. I'm at work, couldn't join the chat tonight.

Current Radar...........

No more delete button?

Ch-each You going to take a look at runs coming up?

oldtimer wrote:Ch-each  You going to take a look at runs coming up?

Yes, 00z UKMET was about .60 qpf, which would be 6-8 inches. 00z GGEM still looks lost as it has been with this storm.

TWC's new snow map is pretty far north



They believe in the north trend I guess. Lol

Ok Frank I admire what you do I'm going to get you over here for macaroni

Frank_Wx wrote:TWC's new snow map is pretty far north



They believe in the north trend I guess. Lol

I can't BELIEVE TWC is actually on our side!!! Haha

Very surprising for TWC but they always lag

Happy Meteorological Spring everyone

The Storm is currently at 980.1 mb very powerful..............

00z GEFS- slightly north

TWC only has Boston at 1-3 inches?! Forget it. Im going to bed. Wake me up tuesday morning.

Can't even get support from the JMA

Joe Snow wrote:Can't even get support from the JMA

And that may be a good thing. The systems usually do the opposite of the JMA.

from accu forum "00z gfs ensemble is north of the op. Red flag for the op"
GFS 72 hours QPF

I posted the GEFS in the last page

pdubz wrote:from accu forum "00z gfs ensemble is north of the op. Red flag for the op"
GFS 72 hours QPF

The first good news of the day.

Frank_Wx wrote:I posted the GEFS in the last page

if most of the ensembles were north then why didn't the OP show that?

pdubz wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I posted the GEFS in the last page

if most of the ensembles were north then why didn't the OP show that?

It's the other way around. OP first then Ensembles. Ensembles are made up of a mean of 18 other members. If the mean shows higher snow than the OP, that means a lot of those members are leaning north

so are you really buying that this could just be a 3"-5" inch storm? I don't think i'm buying into that just yet. Still thinking a northward trend and the 6"-12" in Northern NJ.

smoggy14 wrote:so are you really buying that this could just be a 3"-5" inch storm?  I don't think i'm buying into that just yet.  Still thinking a northward trend and the 6"-12" in Northern NJ.

The reason I went with the conservative call for northern areas is because it was my first call snow map. Since I haven't had time, I haven't been able to release a map sooner. I don't like to go down on accumulations from a first to final call snow map, it makes the original forecast look bad. So my final call will likely have higher amounts into NNJ as well. Final map to be released tomorrow around 3:30