NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Page 5 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Artechmetals Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:03 am

Frank when you say adjust are you thinking lower accumilations
Artechmetals
Artechmetals
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 54
Location : Livingston , NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:06 am

I could be wrong but art I think he may mean more.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:07 am

@Artechmetals wrote:Frank when you say adjust are you thinking lower accumilations

More. Storm further north = more precip

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:07 am

the northern part is more south and already has some accumulation on sunday night

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=035
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:08 am

@Joe Snow wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:NAM is out to hour 12
Hey Ace look at the national radar and look at hr 3 of the 12z NAM's depicition of precip.  It initialized with much less precip in multiple spots along the west coast and Rockies.1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Usa_None_anim

That's what I stated a couple of posts ago The NAM does not have the Precipitation field right, there is way more....
Sorry Joe I didnt see that. I love the overlay...I really will have to look into that software. In the words of the great Jim Carey...."I like it A Lot"

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:09 am

Looks like monday morning rush is going to be bad no matter what.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:10 am

Still think the NAM might be a bit to warm initially when the early overrunning precip moves in on late Sunday.

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:11 am

@Quietace wrote:Still think the NAM might be a bit to warm initially when the early overrunning precip moves in on late Sunday.

Yea, I agree. But that fact that it's warm at first for southern areas means the gradient is far enough north that this run should should 10+ inches of snow for most.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:12 am

Sroc no problem.... - Yeah, GREarth is very cool software. Looking at the latest Radar this thing is really getting juiced with moisture from the Pacific
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 856
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 59
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:14 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Still think the NAM might be a bit to warm initially when the early overrunning precip moves in on late Sunday.

Yea, I agree. But that fact that it's warm at first for southern areas means the gradient is far enough north that this run should should 10+ inches of snow for most.
But even when the NAM was suppressed it torched the 850s on Sunday. Not seeing that happening. The surface should still be colder with the strong N flow.

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:18 am

The NAM would be snow N of NYC Sunday night with ice south of there. Surface is freezing down to the coast while 850s are still warm. Its just the early lead wave though. Not the main storm.

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:19 am

Latest Radar:

If it keeps going like this it will drain the Pacific Ocean LOL

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 5mzv
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 856
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 59
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by devsman Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:23 am

From that radar. It looks like moisture survived the mountains.
devsman
devsman
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 424
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 45
Location : merrick, ny (south shore of Long Island)

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:25 am

The nam looks much different from 6z. It's so different that it just goes to show how much this model shouldn't be used until under 30 hours. The main storm doesn't come until late Sunday or early Monday morning. Still got time. I'll post the 12z nam when the run is over.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:28 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The nam looks much different from 6z. It's so different that it just goes to show how much this model shouldn't be used until under 30 hours. The main storm doesn't come until late Sunday or early Monday morning. Still got time. I'll post the 12z nam when the run is over.


I don't think they can handle this storm (Energy) everything is a mess which model has a true handle on it? It's anyone's guess at the moment..................
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 856
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 59
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:31 am

Yeah wow NAM has 3 inchesw for NYC and almost nothing north by late monday night.  I don't think thats right too far south.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:32 am

Now if it comes to far north Ace wouldn't that not be so good for snj and cnj as far as mixing and rain issues?
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:36 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Now if it comes to far north Ace wouldn't that not be so good for snj and cnj as far as mixing and rain issues?
For us, no. People farther south yes.

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:39 am

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Now if it comes to far north Ace wouldn't that not be so good for snj and cnj as far as mixing and rain issues?
For us, no. People farther south yes.
Great to here that Thank you
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by amugs Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:40 am

Here are the snow weenies on this board for a MECS!
Please GFS from 0Z run Thursday night be right!!
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Post-962-0-30565600-1393684644

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:43 am

what ya think the chances are mugs, and is the 12z it the tell all?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:44 am

WINS radio says 6 inches NYC, less north, one foot Central Jersey.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:44 am

@amugs wrote:Here are the snow weenies on this board for a MECS!
Please GFS from 0Z run Thursday night be right!!
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Post-962-0-30565600-1393684644


Praying right along side with ya...........

I don't think the models have a clue of what to do with this, at this point just put all of them in a hat and pick one, go with that. I am betting the GFS is back to what it was 12+ for all......... Then go figure.
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 856
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 59
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by GreyBeard Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:54 am

FWIW met on ch.4 just said "new data just in.storm much further south". Lowered prediction for NYC to 3-6". Also said snow would be over by noon on Monday.

GreyBeard
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 591
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by SNOW MAN Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:56 am

Channel 2 said it would be over by 7:00am. Go figure.
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1353
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 61
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum