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1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:32 am

JMA is still 1" of QPF for all of NJ, NYC and LI, but it's the JMA, not making me confident. CP, feel bad for you, you've been on the northern cutoff nearly every storm besides the early winter storms, 2/5 and 2/13. I've been near the cutoff too but still generally got close to jackpot so I can't complain. You must be as shocked as me to lose a storm to the PV in March, it's just..... wow.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:33 am

Hilarious CP, about DC.

This PV was hanging over this whole thing right from the beginning and Frank picked that up days ago.Even the great Rayno was calling for mixing S and E of I-95 at that time.

Yep, you and I are fried on this one.Now hoping to get 2 or 3 just to freshen things up.Snowpack grey, black and dingy.
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:34 am

How I feel after the 12z GFS https://youtu.be/31g0YE61PLQ
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:36 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:JMA is still 1" of QPF for all of NJ, NYC and LI, but it's the JMA, not making me confident. CP, feel bad for you, you've been on the northern cutoff nearly every storm besides the early winter storms, 2/5 and 2/13. I've been near the cutoff too but still generally got close to jackpot so I can't complain. You must be as shocked as me to lose a storm to the PV in March, it's just..... wow.

Well, that's what makes the hobby so interesting.To me, it would be boring if these models were 100% accurate three days out.This one blew apart for us north guys but remember the BDB when a few days before they were calling for 1 to 3 and it blew up into one of the most amazing blizzards I've ever seen.

Also, you young guys are going to see 50 more winters with great snowstorms.I'll be happy to see 25 more.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:37 am

@pdubz wrote:How I feel after the 12z GFS https://youtu.be/31g0YE61PLQ

LMFAO!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:38 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:JMA is still 1" of QPF for all of NJ, NYC and LI, but it's the JMA, not making me confident. CP, feel bad for you, you've been on the northern cutoff nearly every storm besides the early winter storms, 2/5 and 2/13. I've been near the cutoff too but still generally got close to jackpot so I can't complain. You must be as shocked as me to lose a storm to the PV in March, it's just..... wow.

Well, that's what makes the hobby so interesting.To me, it would be boring if these models were 100% accurate three days out.This one blew apart for us north guys but remember the BDB when a few days before they were calling for 1 to 3 and it blew up into one of the most amazing blizzards I've ever seen.

Also, you young guys are going to see 50 more winters with great snowstorms.I'll be happy to see 25 more.

I would prefer the models to be somewhat accurate so we could get a good handle on things, sick of this back and forth in the shortrange we've seen.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:39 am

Let this be a lesson to some, when a weather map is showing 12-16 inches of snow area wide, don't ask if we can get 20 or 24.

For one the map 4-5 days out will change and is most likely wrong, and two be satisfied with 12-16, if more happens great but don't test the storms limits, its always the KOD.

I'm kind of kidding and kind of not. 35 years of weather watching and I'm starting to believe these superstitions.

One other superstition I believe, when the pros back off a couple of days ahead of time the storm will often reverse course. I'm hoping that begins soon because we're running out of time.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:39 am

[quote="NjWeatherGuy"]JMA is still 1" of QPF for all of NJ, NYC and LI, but it's the JMA, not making me confident. CP, feel bad for you, you've been on the northern cutoff nearly every storm besides the early winter storms, 2/5 and 2/13. I've been near the cutoff too but still generally got close to jackpot so I can't complain. You must be as shocked as me to lose a storm to the PV in March, it's just..... wow. [/quot

Tom, CP's area made up during the two part storm a week or so ago.

Also, the HV gets the edge on these late March storms.Last year around this time, there was 14 inches there when my town only had 5 or 6. CP can still score a big one, and the way this season is running cold wise, would'nt be surprised to see snow up there in April!
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:40 am

[quote="NjWeatherGuy"]
@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:JMA is still 1" of QPF for all of NJ, NYC and LI, but it's the JMA, not making me confident. CP, feel bad for you, you've been on the northern cutoff nearly every storm besides the early winter storms, 2/5 and 2/13. I've been near the cutoff too but still generally got close to jackpot so I can't complain. You must be as shocked as me to lose a storm to the PV in March, it's just..... wow.

Well, that's what makes the hobby so interesting.To me, it would be boring if these models were 100% accurate three days out.This one blew apart for us north guys but remember the BDB when a few days before they were calling for 1 to 3 and it blew up into one of the most amazing blizzards I've ever seen.

Also, you young guys are going to see 50 more winters with great snowstorms.I'll be happy to see 25 more.

I would prefer the models to be somewhat accurate so we could get a good handle on things, sick of this back and forth in the shortrange we've seen. [/quote

Don't think they are ever going to figure out digitally to accurately predict what nature will do.JMHO.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:42 am

[quote="CPcantmeasuresnow"]Let this be a lesson to some, when a weather map is showing 12-16 inches of snow area wide, don't ask if we can get 20 or 24.

For one the map 4-5 days out will change and is most likely wrong, and two be satisfied with 12-16, if more happens great but don't test the storms limits, its always the KOD.

I'm kind of kidding and kind of not. 35 years of weather watching and  I'm starting to believe these superstitions.

One  other superstition I believe, when the pros back off a couple of days ahead of time the storm will often reverse course. I'm hoping that begins soon because we're running out of time.[/quot

Yep, it's 11:45 PM and we are waiting for the Warden to get the call from the Governer......
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:44 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Let this be a lesson to some, when a weather map is showing 12-16 inches of snow area wide, don't ask if we can get 20 or 24.

For one the map 4-5 days out will change and is most likely wrong, and two be satisfied with 12-16, if more happens great but don't test the storms limits, its always the KOD.

I'm kind of kidding and kind of not. 35 years of weather watching and  I'm starting to believe these superstitions.

One  other superstition I believe, when the pros back off a couple of days ahead of time the storm will often reverse course. I'm hoping that begins soon because we're running out of time.

The real KOD was Accuweather posting that 12 inch map for our area a few days ago.Henry was hyping that map as well.

                                Henry Hype is proportional to the strength of the KOD, in this case, 90%.

Also, he was on the"Big Daddy" train.Looks like it derailed, LOL!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:54 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Let this be a lesson to some, when a weather map is showing 12-16 inches of snow area wide, don't ask if we can get 20 or 24.

For one the map 4-5 days out will change and is most likely wrong, and two be satisfied with 12-16, if more happens great but don't test the storms limits, its always the KOD.

I'm kind of kidding and kind of not. 35 years of weather watching and  I'm starting to believe these superstitions.

One  other superstition I believe, when the pros back off a couple of days ahead of time the storm will often reverse course. I'm hoping that begins soon because we're running out of time.

The real KOD was Accuweather posting that 12 inch map for our area a few days ago.Henry was hyping that map as well.

                                Henry Hype is proportional to the strength of the KOD, in this case, 90%.

Doc you are so right, and funny.

Yes Henry's big Daddy hat and call, the KOD 90% of the time. The best prognosticator since the December prognosticator which BTW worked like a charm again this year. How did I miss that one.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:55 am

Just woke up. CRAP.  😢 
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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:59 am

It's like the line in First Blood "It's over Johnny"  Sad 
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Post by roccuweather Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:00 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Agree with you and welcome aboard roc. The concrete is starting to set on this storms model runs.


Thanks Doc. Wish I found this sooner, a lot of great info here from you all!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:01 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:JMA is still 1" of QPF for all of NJ, NYC and LI, but it's the JMA, not making me confident. CP, feel bad for you, you've been on the northern cutoff nearly every storm besides the early winter storms, 2/5 and 2/13. I've been near the cutoff too but still generally got close to jackpot so I can't complain. You must be as shocked as me to lose a storm to the PV in March, it's just..... wow. [/quot

Tom, CP's area made up during the two part storm a week or so ago.

Also, the HV gets the edge on these late March storms.Last year around this time, there was 14 inches there when my town only had 5 or 6. CP can still score a big one, and the way this season is running cold wise, would'nt be surprised to see snow up there in April!

True on that too Doc.

The 21 inches we got from the Valentines day storm, 10 of which was the backlash has us sitting with a still healthy 1 foot plus snowpack.

That's why being the magnanimous person that I am, I am willing to sacrifice this storm to the NYC area so they can at least break into the top 5.

I am not willing to sacrifice to SNJ and WDC however for reasons stated earlier.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:02 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Let this be a lesson to some, when a weather map is showing 12-16 inches of snow area wide, don't ask if we can get 20 or 24.

For one the map 4-5 days out will change and is most likely wrong, and two be satisfied with 12-16, if more happens great but don't test the storms limits, its always the KOD.

I'm kind of kidding and kind of not. 35 years of weather watching and  I'm starting to believe these superstitions.

One  other superstition I believe, when the pros back off a couple of days ahead of time the storm will often reverse course. I'm hoping that begins soon because we're running out of time.

The real KOD was Accuweather posting that 12 inch map for our area a few days ago.Henry was hyping that map as well.

                                Henry Hype is proportional to the strength of the KOD, in this case, 90%.

Doc you are so right, and funny.

Yes Henry's big Daddy hat and call, the KOD 90% of the time. The best prognosticator since the December prognosticator which BTW worked like a charm again this year. How did I miss that one.


December Prognosticator which you so brilliantly discovered , has worked like a charm AGAIN.Wish I had technical indicators in my trading operations that were as accurate as that!
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:04 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:It's like the line in First Blood "It's over Johnny"  Sad 

Looking like you're right, SNOW

Bottom of the ninth,down two runs, two out.We need a Bobby Thompsen here with the last model runs.
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:04 pm

WPC. Thats 4-8" for NYC/LI with ratios
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 10 19002810
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:05 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:JMA is still 1" of QPF for all of NJ, NYC and LI, but it's the JMA, not making me confident. CP, feel bad for you, you've been on the northern cutoff nearly every storm besides the early winter storms, 2/5 and 2/13. I've been near the cutoff too but still generally got close to jackpot so I can't complain. You must be as shocked as me to lose a storm to the PV in March, it's just..... wow. [/quot

Tom, CP's area made up during the two part storm a week or so ago.

Also, the HV gets the edge on these late March storms.Last year around this time, there was 14 inches there when my town only had 5 or 6. CP can still score a big one, and the way this season is running cold wise, would'nt be surprised to see snow up there in April!

True on that too Doc.

The 21 inches we got from the Valentines day storm, 10 of which was the backlash has us sitting with a still healthy 1 foot plus snowpack.

That's why being the magnanimous person that I am, I am willing to sacrifice this storm to the NYC area so they can at least break into the top 5.

I am not willing to sacrifice to SNJ and WDC however for reasons stated earlier.


I love that magnanimous line.Why don't you put on a lion suit like Burt lahr in the Wizard of Oz and start singing "If I Were King Of The Forest"?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:07 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Just woke up. CRAP.  😢 

It's not over for you yet, you can still do 6-10, but up here in the HV I've thrown in the towel, I'll be lucky to see 3-4.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:08 pm

Too freaking funny Doc!!  lol! 
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:11 pm

I'm going on record and saying I HATE the PV! It brings cold for snow, yes, but it's TOO cold. It's miserable outside. And NOW it is sucker punching our storm south! I cannot believe DC will get more snow than NYC in March! Grrrrrr lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:13 pm

Mets2695 wrote:WPC. Thats 4-8" for NYC/LI with ratios
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 10 19002810

So tantalizing close that I still can't give it up completely.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:15 pm

Hey guys, I truly believe in these superstitions, HM's Big Daddy and TWC getting on board for 6-12" plus for most of NJ, NYC and LI means storm cancel. However soon as they shift it south it'll come back north haha.
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