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1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:15 pm

As Frank said, a bump up 25 miles could happen.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:16 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm going on record and saying I HATE the PV! It brings cold for snow, yes, but it's TOO cold. It's miserable outside. And NOW it is sucker punching our storm south! I cannot believe DC will get more snow than NYC in March! Grrrrrr lol

But it is suppose to be 58 in WDC tomorrow, not sure how quickly they get near freezing. I don't believe all that qpf they will be getting is snow.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:17 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey guys, I truly believe in these superstitions, HM's Big Daddy and TWC getting on board for 6-12" plus for most of NJ, NYC and LI means storm cancel. However soon as they shift it south it'll come back north haha.

That would really take the cake! But with this bizarre winter, who knows?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:17 pm

@docstox12 wrote:As Frank said, a bump up 25 miles could happen.

I wish man, as of now the CMC seems to be doing best with this storm, caught on to this solution several days ago and we though it was out to lunch, underestimated model. Also did very well with 2/13 one of the first showing it up the coast and showing the light rainy dryslot that permeated pretty far north.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:18 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm going on record and saying I HATE the PV! It brings cold for snow, yes, but it's TOO cold. It's miserable outside. And NOW it is sucker punching our storm south! I cannot believe DC will get more snow than NYC in March! Grrrrrr lol

But it is suppose to be 58 in WDC tomorrow, not sure how quickly they get near freezing. I don't believe all that qpf they will be getting is snow.

Alright. Everyone shift their energy into a NORTH TREND for 18z runs. On your mark, get set....GO! ;-)
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:21 pm

I'll put the malocchio on the PV!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:22 pm

E wall is crashing, can't handle the traffic from all the weenies across the US potentially affected by this storm. Something to take in is that we're not the only losers, the midwest/OV people are going crazy too by browsing the Accuwx forums.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:22 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey guys, I truly believe in these superstitions, HM's Big Daddy and TWC getting on board for 6-12" plus for most of NJ, NYC and LI means storm cancel. However soon as they shift it south it'll come back north haha.

Tom:

And when you're as old as DOC and I and you see them happen time and time again, you really do start to wonder.

My biggest cringe moment is still when everyone starts posting weather maps which in and of itself is fine and I like looking at them as much as anyone else, but when people start extrapolating on them, can this mean 20, can this mean 24. I mean it's a map of 12-16 inches on an event 4-5 days away it's really just eye candy then.  You just have to see it for what it is, which is a guess using data that will most likely change quite a bit by the time of the event. That's when I just say to myself goodbye Godzilla.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:24 pm

Anymore snow potential down the road? Frank did say something about the 7th.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:24 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey guys, I truly believe in these superstitions, HM's Big Daddy and TWC getting on board for 6-12" plus for most of NJ, NYC and LI means storm cancel. However soon as they shift it south it'll come back north haha.

Tom:

And when you're as old as DOC and I and you see them happen time and time again, you really do start to wonder.

My biggest cringe moment is still when everyone starts posting weather maps which in and of itself is fine and I like looking at them as much ass anyone else, but when people start extrapolating on them, can this mean 20, can this mean 24. I mean it's a map of 12-16 inches on an event 4-5 days away it's really just eye candy then.  You just have to see it for what it is, which is a guess using data that will most likely change quite a bit by the time of the event. That's when I just say to myself goodbye Godzilla.

Yes, just like people jumping on the 2 foot CMC map from like 5 days ago. People need to realize that to avoid disappointment you simply can't allow yourself to get excited 100 hours out. Things constantly change like I've been harping on and on for better or for worse, so far it's been for worse.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:27 pm

BASTARDI:

"@BigJoeBastardi: JMA still further north Southern branch 30 meters stronger, northern 30 meters weaker, makes 75 mile dif in shift north"
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:28 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey guys, I truly believe in these superstitions, HM's Big Daddy and TWC getting on board for 6-12" plus for most of NJ, NYC and LI means storm cancel. However soon as they shift it south it'll come back north haha.

Tom:

And when you're as old as DOC and I and you see them happen time and time again, you really do start to wonder.

My biggest cringe moment is still when everyone starts posting weather maps which in and of itself is fine and I like looking at them as much as anyone else, but when people start extrapolating on them, can this mean 20, can this mean 24. I mean it's a map of 12-16 inches on an event 4-5 days away it's really just eye candy then.  You just have to see it for what it is, which is a guess using data that will most likely change quite a bit by the time of the event. That's when I just say to myself goodbye Godzilla.

Yep, Godzilla has turned around and is walking back into Tokyo Bay.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:32 pm

Look at the amazing gradient setting up over north Texas with this system! 40 deg difference in 60 miles. That means if you're traveling north every 3 miles you go the temperature drops 2 degrees!

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 11 3_1tem10
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:33 pm

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 11 CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR

Theres always the JMA. Lol

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:35 pm

CMC says .4" QPF all snow just south of NYC, about .6" in SNJ, there are no snow QPF amounts nearly to 1" except in the western VA mtns because of rain in southern areas for first part.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:37 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:CMC says .4" QPF all snow just south of NYC, about .6" in SNJ, there are no snow QPF amounts nearly to 1" except in the western VA mtns because of rain in southern areas for first part.

WDC high temp is projected as 58 tomorrow so I'm not that surprised. It will take a little while for them to get into snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:38 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Look at the amazing gradient setting up over north Texas with this system! 40 deg difference in 60 miles. That means if you're traveling north every 3 miles you go the temperature drops 2 degrees!

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 11 3_1tem10

Awesome graphic.

If this storm does end up more suppressed, the GGEM would have scored a coup. It has always remained suppressed with this system

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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:40 pm

Bernie's video he's holding on to hope http://ow.ly/u8nBr
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:41 pm

@pdubz wrote:Bernie's video he's holding on to hope http://ow.ly/u8nBr

You beat me to it, he makes a lot of good points and I hope he's right, time will tell.
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:47 pm

Euro is about to initialize on WxBell

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:49 pm

GEFS, a couple good looking members but some very suppressed and would figure mean would be very similar to OP.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:54 pm

Latest RADAR:

Still pulling moisture from the Pacific Ocean as it comes across.

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 11 6z3c

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:54 pm

The west-based blocking over Greenland and in the Arctic region is the reason why the PV is oriented the way it is- unfavorable for the northeast but favorable for the Mid-Atlantic. The contours around it are not as meridional, instead, they are sharper and pressing south. Extreme state of the -EPO is turning this storm system into an extreme solution- a suppressive system bringing 8+ inch snowfall amounts to DC. Something very anomalous for early March.

Current observations show a stronger southern stream right now, but unless the orientation of the PV changes, that just means more QPF for the DC to Philly area with locations north of Philly and central NJ remaining right along the fringe.

It is worth noting that just a slight shift northward of just 20-30 miles would increase qpf rather drastically from around Allentown, PA to NYC. Instead of 4-8 inches, they would be back in the 6-10 inches. There is still 00z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow for this to happen for those areas, but man, that PV is strong and I am not confident it actually does. Kudos to the GGEM for recognizing this and remaining consistent.

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 11 1890476_696025807115848_388187274_o

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 1:02 pm

EURO is south, by a lot

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 1:04 pm

EURO is 2-4 inches for NYC. Wow

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