1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

EURO is south, by a lot

EURO is 2-4 inches for NYC. Wow

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is south, by a lot

Good lord. We are losing this storm. Can't believe it.

No surprise now it'll snow in Florida next run 

Current RADAR with 500mb Heights:

Its even to far south for me.....jesus.

EPAWA met Bobby Martirch said that he agrees with the h5 from the euro which should allow the storm to come north, but says the surface does not match h5 and he does not agree.

Upton might have to lift the Watches in the NYC area.

I am still holding for 4-8" for NYC. I think the watch should remain.

Mets2695 wrote:I am still holding for 4-8" for NYC. I think the watch should remain.

If the NAM and GFS go towards the Euro at 18z they will lift them.

I think they will wait until 0z runs. They very rarely change forecasts based on 18z runs. They don't have to upgrade to a warning until tomorrow morning so they will probably leave the watch and make the call early am to see if they need to upgrade to a warning or drop to an advisory.

4-8 inches is still a good call for NYC. The watches will remain.

EURO is like .2" QPF, horrific, towel is about to be thrown in

Which model usually handles southern stream energy better? Euro or GFS?

Mets2695 wrote:Which model usually handles southern stream energy better? Euro or GFS?

EURO

I just got caught up. Siggggghhhhhhhhhh.   

I would like to compare right now to a scene in the movie Independence day right after Jeff Goldbloom and Will Smith finish uploading the virus to the mother ship when they realize they are stuck, and the Aliens then open up the front shield. Will Smith and Jeff Goldbloom quickly duck down so not to be seen, only to realize that there mission is pretty much done. They are not going to be able to get out alive, so they break out the cigars and and realize there is only one thing left to do, deliver the Nuke.

Right now we have our cigars lit and we are waving at the aliens (polar Vortex) about to fire our Nuke(tonights 00z model suites). But maybe just maybe when we do it will shake our ship loose and Will Smith (Frank) can then get us out of the mother ship just in time before the Nuke explodes (6+ inches for all). And tommorrow morning we will all say together..."No no no...I didnt here no fat lady"

At this point its just unreal with the models being complety different with full sampling

skinsfan1177 wrote:At this point its just unreal with the models being complety different with full sampling

Unreal? What about the GFS and the 2/13 storm, every system has been a headache this winter and a difficult forecast and this is no different, it seems we lose agreement as we get closer to the event.

Yes Tom your right my point was the models are really pathetic with being so different with full sampling.

Wow, we're in trouble when the Baltimore people are complaining about it and how they need a north shift now. We're done for lol...

This to me is amazing - the PV and its orientation (West based block) is crushing us and 75 miles away (air that is) is going to get crushed - reminds me of the 09-10 snow that crushed NC and VA and we go squat or the 1980 storm that they were predicting 6-10" and woke up to a dusting.

Loos like the trend has reversed on us to South and East from N and W this whole winter (98%) of our storms.

We are running out of time and this PV is not in the right position - I have some faith but it is slowly wanning for a SECS up here - if the trend continues shit Ace may see a dusting - go figure!

Screw SNJ and South - why the hell does this happen to us these past 10 years with these storms - remember Feb '09 (I think) when Del had 30+ and NYC had like 6" and NNJ had 3-4". AHHHHHH! Bite me!

sroc4 wrote:I just got caught up.  Siggggghhhhhhhhhh.    

I would like to compare right now to a scene in the movie Independence day right after Jeff Goldbloom and Will Smith finish uploading the virus to the mother ship when they realize they are stuck, and the Aliens then open up the front shield.  Will Smith and Jeff Goldbloom quickly duck down so not to be seen, only to realize that there mission is pretty much done.  They are not going to be able to get out alive, so they break out the cigars and and realize there is only one thing left to do, deliver the Nuke.  

Right now we have our cigars lit and we are waving at the aliens (polar Vortex) about to fire our Nuke(tonights 00z model suites).  But maybe just maybe when we do it will shake our ship loose and Will Smith (Frank) can then get us out of the mother ship just in time before the Nuke explodes (6+ inches for all).  And tommorrow morning we will all say together..."No no no...I didnt here no fat lady"

I love the analogy and the outcome.

I'm trying to think today, If I've ever seen a hyped storm model wise 4-7 days out, that turns against us model wise in days 2-4, that actually reverts back the day before to the 4-7 model storm.

In my recollection, unless someone else remembers one,  that would be a first. However it's been a really odd winter, so it wouldn't totally blow me away either.

amugs wrote:This to me is amazing - the PV and its orientation (West based block) is crushing us and 75 miles away (air that is) is going to get crushed - reminds me of the 09-10 snow that crushed NC and VA and we go squat or the 1980 storm that they were predicting 6-10" and woke up to a dusting.  

Loos like the trend has reversed on us to South and East from N and W this whole winter (98%) of our storms.

We are running out of time and this PV is not in the right position - I have some faith but it is slowly wanning for a SECS up here - if the trend continues shit Ace may see a dusting - go figure!

Screw SNJ and South - why the hell does this happen to us these past 10 years with these storms - remember Feb '09 (I think) when Del had 30+ and NYC had like 6" and NNJ had 3-4". AHHHHHH! Bite me!

I think that was December 19-20, 2009. But still not as bad as February 5-6, 2010

sroc4 wrote:I just got caught up.  Siggggghhhhhhhhhh.    

I would like to compare right now to a scene in the movie Independence day right after Jeff Goldbloom and Will Smith finish uploading the virus to the mother ship when they realize they are stuck, and the Aliens then open up the front shield.  Will Smith and Jeff Goldbloom quickly duck down so not to be seen, only to realize that there mission is pretty much done.  They are not going to be able to get out alive, so they break out the cigars and and realize there is only one thing left to do, deliver the Nuke.  

Right now we have our cigars lit and we are waving at the aliens (polar Vortex) about to fire our Nuke(tonights 00z model suites).  But maybe just maybe when we do it will shake our ship loose and Will Smith (Frank) can then get us out of the mother ship just in time before the Nuke explodes (6+ inches for all).  And tommorrow morning we will all say together..."No no no...I didnt here no fat lady"

That's hilarious

Math23x7 wrote:

amugs wrote:This to me is amazing - the PV and its orientation (West based block) is crushing us and 75 miles away (air that is) is going to get crushed - reminds me of the 09-10 snow that crushed NC and VA and we go squat or the 1980 storm that they were predicting 6-10" and woke up to a dusting.  

Loos like the trend has reversed on us to South and East from N and W this whole winter (98%) of our storms.

We are running out of time and this PV is not in the right position - I have some faith but it is slowly wanning for a SECS up here - if the trend continues shit Ace may see a dusting - go figure!

Screw SNJ and South - why the hell does this happen to us these past 10 years with these storms - remember Feb '09 (I think) when Del had 30+ and NYC had like 6" and NNJ had 3-4". AHHHHHH! Bite me!

I think that was December 19-20, 2009.  But still not as bad as February 5-6, 2010

2009-2010 was all about the mid atlantic

Im not holding my breath but there is always a first for everything

3-6" for NYC is my final call, the PV won't adjust itself in time enough. The setup just doesn't favor more snow here. SUCKS.