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1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:07 am

GFS has caved back to a formidable storm for NYC, .7/.8 QPF and will trend higher today IMO
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:08 am

@pdubz wrote:Winter storm watch for all of Long Island, NYC, and parts of jersey so far. 4-8 inches better then nothing but still hoping for a trend north.  

gfs is about 25 miles north. good trends from the 6z runs. nyc c/s nj and LI 6-12". it has a very sharp cutoff to the north however. we need another 25 to 50 mile jog north at 12z today
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:12 am

all three models rgem, nam and gfs are showing the storm to be stronger. just like what frank was saying. final solution still not nailed down yet. don't forget all winter models in this time frame have trended n/w and stronger. really good trends
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:50 am

I thought frank mentioned not to pay much attention to the 6z runsvthat the 12 z runscis what to watch
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:56 am

Just woke up to check out the latest guidance. Looks like our storm is coming back from the dead! 6z suite put us back in the ballgame. We need another 50 mile bump north; verbatim GFS. and then we'll be golden. What a roller coaster ride! Hang on to your butts everyone, the 12z suite will be the biggest runs of the year!!! bounce 
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:05 am

Very true! Going back to sleep so I'm up for 12z let the north trend continue  Very Happy
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:09 am

@pdubz wrote:Very true! Going back to sleep so I'm up for 12z let the north trend continue  Very Happy

Going to sleep for the first time 'tonight'...lol. See you at noon!  Basketball 
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:09 am

Holly Map looks spot on IMO
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 Stormt18

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:11 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I thought frank mentioned not to pay much attention to the 6z runsvthat the 12 z runscis what to watch
What frank meant was he felt the north trend would commence at 12z. IT STARTED ALREADY!!!
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:11 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Just woke up to check out the latest guidance. Looks like our storm is coming back from the dead! 6z suite put us back in the ballgame. We need another 50 mile bump north; verbatim GFS. and then we'll be golden. What a roller coaster ride! Hang on to your butts everyone, the 12z suite will be the biggest runs of the year!!! bounce 
If everyone would have just relaxed about the model suite last night, no one would have been stressed out. NYC will see a plow-able snow from this people.

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:13 am

@pdubz wrote:GFS is north not by much but it's moving and QPF is higher also.
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 Fz5i
Yeah the 6z GFS is about 6-12 NYC with 12+ Phili through SNJ.

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:21 am

The latest Radar:

Looks like a ton of moisture is getting pulled fro the Pacific Ocean.

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 2sxv
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:31 am

The JMA --- BONSI!!!

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 Otk
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:32 am

@Quietace wrote:Holly Map looks spot on IMO
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 Stormt18
fingers crossed ace not looking for a further north trend
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:35 am

@Joe Snow wrote:The latest Radar:

Looks like a ton of moisture is getting pulled fro the Pacific Ocean.

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 2sxv
Thats a lot of lifting and Tropical Moisture being fed in threw Baja Cal. Unsure if it will effect the system unless that belt continues to feed the system as it heads East.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:41 am

Checked NWS and Accuweather this AM and it looks like the heavier snow has shifted to Central/South Jersey so they bought into the southward shift of the models.I'm still in a 4 to 6 zone so just hoping for 5.5 inches so I can get to number two for snowfall on my 25 year chart.Maybe this slight north shift anticipated today will help that.A nice 6 inches would freshen the snowpack and stay around as next week looks COLD!!!!
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:43 am

From NASA this is from their GEOS-5 Experimental Model:

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 L9mx

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:51 am

WOW Tornado Warning for Los Angles County, this storm is powerful.............

770
WWUS56 KLOX 011131
SVSLOX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

CAC037-011200-
/O.CON.KLOX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140301T1200Z/
LOS ANGELES CA-
331 AM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM PST FOR EAST CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

AT 324 AM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO LOCATED IN WEST COVINA AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH. IT WILL LIKELY AFFECT COVINA...CHARTER OAK...SAN DIMAS AND
GLENDORA BY 4 AM PST. THIS STORM IS THE SAME ONE FOR WHICH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAD BEEN ISSUED. IT BEGAN SHOWING A ROTATION
SIGNATURE ON DOPPLER RADAR INDICATIVE OF A TORNADO.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

LAT...LON 3431 11790 3421 11770 3401 11783 3403 11791
TIME...MOT...LOC 1127Z 197DEG 15KT 3407 11787

$$

DB/ASR
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:57 am

Wow  bounce Im a happy camper a huge jump north and qpf for NAM and a slight jump north and qpf from GFS, nice thing to wake up to am guessing we will have a in the middle situation between the two putting central or northern NJ and NYC, in the jackpot again.  Proves right that we shouldnt have been so upset yesterday.  12z will be big will be here at 10am!
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Post by Radz Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:06 am

Well it is crunch time folks, i believe we will continue to see a slight shift north again with the precip shield on todays models - giving southern Westchester down to central NJ the best shot of 8"+ really hope it comes north even more so us to the north can cash in on some 6"+ totals as well though! Fingers crossed...
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Post by amugs Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:39 am

cheers Good morning all and I see we have the N trend coming to fruition as Frank and others stated. The 35 approx more mile shift is a good sign and NOW we are seeing the sampling as our storm is onshore and it is from what I have read,reports stronger than forecasted.

I hope to see another shift like this North and quite frankly I have a feeling that it will go back to just about it original position on the GFS it was showing on its first three runs- maybe wish casting but these models seem to do this with these storms!

I personally had to walk away from this board yesterday afternoon and the other ones as well cause the snow weenie Harry carry watch and bs was driving me crazy. It proved to an extent Socrates stated"The masses  without leadership can be irritational"

Looking to be a fun day once again on the board!! bounce


Last edited by amugs on Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:41 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:39 am

This morning, Accuweather has me 3 to 6,NWS 3 to 7 and Frank 3 to6.If todays runs don't shift north,this looks like it.Wouldn.t be surprised with the southward and eastward bias all season.Right now very sharp cutoff just north of me.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:42 am

Ok so here is my 1st call snow map for the impending snow. Start times will be Sunday eve between 8pm-11pm +/- an hr or so and go until some time Monday night.  
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 <a href=1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 March_10" />
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 <a href=1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 Gfs_su11" />
This going to be a tough forecast for a few reasons. In addition to my snow map I am including a surface map of north America. Take notice of a few things. The circle with PV in it is approx. where the Polar Vortex is centered. The Polar Vortex is a large counterclockwise circulation of acrtic air that spins up at approx 18,000-20,000ft in the atmosphere. The series of H's are arctic high pressure, and our system is circled in blue. The key to this forecast is going to be how strong is the Polar Vortex and how strong and how fast does the high pressure build in eastward over the Great Lakes compared to how strong is the energy that is to be our storm system. If you look at the map you can visualize that if the eastern arm of high pressure builds in fast and strong it is going to push our system further south and east giving us less snow but colder temps. If our system is strong enough it will try to "push back" on that building high pressure and end up further north which gives us more snow. The last 36hrs of model guidance has indicated a further south and east storm track, which goes against my snow map. However, this early mornings latest models are beginning to show a tick back north with our track which is what I ultimately think is going to happen. Over the next 24hrs I may adjust these totals either higher or lower depending on how this system evolves. The energy that is to be our system is only just now coming ashore in California and is still looking Robust.
1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 3 Wv-animated

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:44 am

Only thing that concerns me is how far north NAM went, will GFS jump that far north?  As I stated I hope it is a blend of the two and upped qpf to get us back to where we were days ago like mugs stated. A little over 2 hrs until 12z gfs begins! LOL
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:45 am

Nice job, Doc, clear, concise and very easy to understand.

That northward anticipated shift will put your map right on the money.Classic battle, that low pushing against the high.

Nice 6 to 10 blast for me if it proves out.
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