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2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:33 pm

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  1900051_696063290445433_531386042_n

Timing:

*Flurries throughout the day Sunday*

Start time: 10pm Sunday

End time: 10pm Monday

Heaviest snow: 4am - 10am Monday

Discussion:

Current observations are showing me a strong southern stream system than currently modeled INCLUDING a weak PV. Down the road, this could have implications on the final storm track which I am expecting to be in line more so with the GFS than the EURO. EURO is obnoxiously too far south in my opinion, and climatology also has to be taken into consideration. I am also noticing sharp cutoffs on the models, which is unsurprising given the extremely cold air mass to our north. Snow ratios for our area will be 15:1 at times, which could help get NYC more in line with 6-7 inches of snow than 4-5 inches. I do not think we have seen the final solution to this storm. We should wait until 12z runs tomorrow morning given what I am seeing at the upper levels.



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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:36 pm

I've heard about the weaker PV but I have my doubts about it causing a north shift here. I like being in the 8-12 in your map but I'm skeptical. We'll see, for sure I'll be on the models tonight.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:36 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I've heard about the weaker PV but I have my doubts about it causing a north shift here. I like being in the 8-12 in your map but I'm skeptical. We'll see, for sure I'll be on the models tonight.

I will not be. Working until 11:30pm. Power is in your hands Tom. If the north trend does not start tonight, you're fired.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:37 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I've heard about the weaker PV but I have my doubts about it causing a north shift here. I like being in the 8-12 in your map but I'm skeptical. We'll see, for sure I'll be on the models tonight.

I will not be. Working until 11:30pm. Power is in your hands Tom. If the north trend does not start tonight, you're fired.

Lol don't shoot the messenger.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:47 pm

At this point I am glad to see I am still in  the 4-8 inch area, from reading last thread I figured southern westchester was going for the 3 or less.
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Post by jsnowdome Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:55 pm

I am not looking forward to my commute on monday. That is for sure.

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:04 pm

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  Mrh1
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:04 pm

SREFs adjusted south

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:08 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:SREFs adjusted south

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

Tom:

Can I shoot you now?

JK
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:10 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:SREFs adjusted south

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

Tom:

Can I shoot you now?

JK

I hate it just as much as you do. I can't stand when my skepticism is right... Hopefully I'm wrong still a day left...
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:21 pm

NAM is a complete miss with second wave, PV is further south than 12z, much further south than 6z. Screw this.

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  Usa_pc24

Short wave is less organized and shunted further south than past few runs. Upper level jet strong in Michigan.
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Post by MinaMak Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:23 pm

What's amazing with all these forecasts and "busts" is that the storm has just come onshore on the west coast. I personally don't think the models can accurately predict this storm as it moves west to east. Seems to have a ton of energy and the polar vortex really is not that south. I'm sure there's still a lot to change between now and tomorrow night, and highly doubt that it will change further south!!

And why is everyone convinced that there will be no phasing. Just because of the models??

We'll wait and see!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:25 pm

@MinaMak wrote:What's amazing with all these forecasts and "busts" is that the storm has just come onshore on the west coast. I personally don't think the models can accurately predict this storm as it moves west to east. Seems to have a ton of energy and the polar vortex really is not that south. I'm sure there's still a lot to change between now and tomorrow night, and highly doubt that it will change further south!!

And why is everyone convinced that there will be no phasing. Just because of the models??

We'll wait and see!

Because it's not going to phase with the PV, the PV is going to kick it due east and precip shield is squashed. Latest trends suggest Philly may now be out of the heaviest snow, most snows in NJ now concentrated in extreme SE sections, Cape May does best.
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:30 pm

500mb is north though. Once again doesn't match the surface.
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:34 pm

@MinaMak wrote:What's amazing with all these forecasts and "busts" is that the storm has just come onshore on the west coast. I personally don't think the models can accurately predict this storm as it moves west to east. Seems to have a ton of energy and the polar vortex really is not that south. I'm sure there's still a lot to change between now and tomorrow night, and highly doubt that it will change further south!!

And why is everyone convinced that there will be no phasing. Just because of the models??

We'll wait and see!


This is why I have been posting the RADAR images, that is what is actually happening. Models are used for guidance, what actually happens is what actually happens affraid . I am not sold on this PV push just yet. That band of snow above Chicago should be affected if the PV is going to push, that's what I am looking at, what is going to happen to it.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:39 pm

Mets2695 wrote:500mb is north though. Once again doesn't match the surface.

Not really, the PV is slightly further south and clearly stronger, look at the differences between the 6z, 12z, and 18z, they are clear as to why it's more suppressed. These maps are for the same exact timeframe.

6z

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  Screen99

12z

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  Scree100

18z

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  Scree101

The flow was SW to NE at 6z and trended flatter at 12z and even flatter at 18z hence the suppression. Joe the band of snow is not influenced by the PV because it's overrunning moisture from the flow coming off the CA storm. Once it consolidates the precip shield will tighten up and be suppressed as the precip is pushed due east with the low. We will get in on a few inches of overrunning snow likely but the second half is looking more and more like a miss.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:44 pm

Mt. Holly slashes totals to the north reflecting my thinking.

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  Stormt14
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:56 pm

my lord how far south the NAM is, this is crazy!  It is what it is.  Time to move on.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:02 pm

Yep I'm done with this one too.

Ive gone from hoping for 12-16 inches in the HV to now hoping for 2-3 inches from first wave.

To then hoping for 6-8 inches in NYC so they can climb their list, to now hoping they get at least 3 inches to get to number 5 on their list.

I hope it goes another 100 miles south and misses WDC.

See you all in a couple of days, I need time to renew my snow loving spirit.
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:03 pm

Uptons map has all of NYC and LI in 6-8"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:05 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Uptons map has all of NYC and LI in 6-8"

4pm update or old map?
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:07 pm

4pm update. Also re issued the winter storm watch
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Post by amugs Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:07 pm

CP - hang in there buddy take the time to renew!!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:12 pm

still surprised upton has'nt made any watches for southern westchester as we are in the 4-6 which is wsw criteria i believe
or possibly advisory.  Some things just don't seem right to me like a few others have said.  Albeit I do not understand all this as well as the vets here but its hard for me to believe the PV is going to drop that far south, i mean its march and this would be pretty darn rare for DC.  I am going to keep a watch on it nonetheless but models I think are not going to help anyone at this point.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:12 pm

@amugs wrote:CP - hang in there buddy take the time to renew!!

Mugs:

As one poster said yesterday as things started to turn against us, "it's only snow".

Obviously they had no clue, to those of us with the mutant gene, it's so much more than just snow.
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